Nickonomics

Nickonomics

In the October issue of Scenarios , we introduced two bullish scenarios — “Triangle” and “Diagonal” — which differed in the depth of their corrective moves. Ultimately, the first scenario prevailed. Today, we see a similar setup: two bullish scenarios once again, each varying in terms of potential correction depth. To the right, the October “Triangle” suggests...

Nickonomics

On the D1 chart, an accumulation with a Point of Control (POC) at 63246 is forming. This is key for predicting the following swings. The marginal zones outline two trading areas: Buying in the range of 54183-57204. Selling in the range of 67777-69287. Considering the previous accumulation at POC 59604, the realization of the first scenario is more likely,...

Nickonomics

Wave (iv) of an Impulse originating from 3977 likely ended last Friday. Since the 2351-2439 zone serves as a support, a counter-trend rebound is expected. However, this should be followed by continued selling aimed below the August low of 2111. A trend reversal in favor of bulls can be discussed only if the descending channel is broken. The chart includes...

Nickonomics

In the previous update, we presented the Triangle scenario in wave . It is shown on the left. This scenario is supported by the robust structure of the Triple Three wave pattern and the traditionally positive seasonality for Bitcoin in the October-December period. For instance, the average monthly growth of BTC in October is 19.6% (since August 2017). Are...

Nickonomics

Update to the Idea from September 23. The exceeding of the 65000 level has confirmed the scenario of a completed Triangle D1 in wave . Bull targets have been established at 75944 (minimum) and 81753. More precise reversal levels will be identified upon the completion of the wave pattern. Achieving the targets before the elections is quite realistic.

Nickonomics

On Monday, the Inverse Head & Shoulders pattern was activated. The initial target for this pattern is 684. The larger the short-term retracement, the better the risk-reward ratio.

Nickonomics

Elliott wave analysis, as a method and tool, advocates a bullish outlook as it is difficult to find a substantial bearish alternative within the 73777-49000 range. The Triple Three correction exhibits near-ideal ratios and alternation of wave patterns within. The Triangle in Wave can be considered either complete (minimum conditions are met) or incomplete as...

Nickonomics

The Diagonal pattern from the previous post has developed differently than we anticipated. However, our forecast of a move to new lows proved accurate. With the bottom now likely taking shape, it's time to switch to the buy side.

Nickonomics Updated 

On the D1 chart, a Diagonal is likely forming. Its standard target is 1514-1496. On the smaller H4 chart, a downward impulse from 1669 to 1567 has formed, followed by a Flat in wave b. This aligns well with the Diagonal. Doubts about this scenario will arise if the upper boundary of the D1 Diagonal is breached.

Nickonomics

A nearly pristine Triangle is emerging on the D1 chart. It meets the minimum requirements for completion, as indicated by a bearish signal on the H4. The pattern's standard target is 195. Note that it is part of an impulse from the 261.7 price level, which is nearing completion.

Nickonomics Updated 

A series of lower highs and higher lows over the last ten days indicate the Triangle pattern has been formed. The thrust to the either side is imminent - and you don't want to miss on this next trending move. The chart to the left is the bearish scenario, in which price will plunge to the 8500s area (-200 margin zone). To my mind, it is more probable and actually...

Nickonomics Updated 

Two major patterns in play: 5-week Inv H&S and 12-week Triangle. The former invalidates @9360, the latter - below 9100. Risk-reward ratio for buyers is very decent. The safest entry is to buy when the channel line is penetrated.

Nickonomics Updated 

In the previous idea we anticipated price drop to 5876 as the downtrend developed: Currently, there are a couple of technical factors that suggest the bottom has either already formed or is very close to it: There are complete 5--wave impulses of minute and minuette degrees on the chart; A nice long-legged Doji supported by a spike in volume; Clear...

Nickonomics Updated 

Here is my take on breakout targets for both Bitcoins. A couple of things to consider: BCH is stronger now, so if you're going long, consider BCHBTC for more gains. The pattern is BCH is of greater quality, looks more safe, whereas a downside breakout in BTC may lead into the pattern's broadening. Be sure to apply aggressive money management when working...

Nickonomics Updated 

Nothing is happening in the market: volatility has become extinct and coins' trading fallen out of fashion. Range-bound bots and robotic humans absolutely prosper in this environment. The price was unable to break the 7700 threshold. For me this is a bearish signal. Indicators provide mixed signals, so let's examine wave structure. The move from May 29 is a 3-wave...

Nickonomics Updated 

In the previous idea I laid out a plan to go short below 7320 key level. The price didn't go down that much and nothing was triggered. Now ought to consider both the bullish and the bearish scenarios and apply the breakout strategy. The Bull is activated on break of the 7700 crucial resistance. In this case impulse extension is quite probable. Bitcoin Cash setup...

Nickonomics Updated 

A bullish Flag pattern is emerging in BCH. Break of 1150 will serve as the trigger. It is support by: Short-term uptrend Reverse divergence pattern

Nickonomics Updated 

The market takes no particular interest in trading these days: the volume is very low, volatility - non-existent. No wonder nothing has happened since the previous update. Still, this anemic price behaviour suggests that the bottom might not have formed yet. There are a couple of technical bearish considerations: The price failed to break resistance of the...