Nicolas_Pradel

Nicolas_Pradel Updated 

This will be my first FTMO order on my double 200k account. The trade will be triggered at $1.108. R/R= 4 and Risk= 4% I'm investing only 50% of my cash to reduce the risk to an acceptable 2%. NB: This publication represents only a small part of my analysis.

Nicolas_Pradel

It is tricky to say if it is "THE" bottom. And it is easy to imagine lower bottom, which would better suit to the actual bleak economy forecasts. Btw I am not gonna take any decision based on these soles charts. I need much more data... It is an update of my last post:

Nicolas_Pradel

Since 1929 the S&P500 climbed 3 times above the resistance of his 100 years channel. The first one was just before the 1397 recession, the second one was for the dot-com bubble, and the third one was... 18 months ago! Each time this high was followed by a crash, and a new bull market began only after the lower band of the RSI was touched. Jeremy Grantham...

Nicolas_Pradel

For the Nasdaq100 and S&P500 !! Huge risk / reward if it goes to the rejection zone. Btw I'm thinking to sell only when my technical indicators will turned bearish, and not at a fixed price. There is a risk of the Nasdaq symmetrical triangle pattern leads to a break trough the support. Be careful to disable your buy orders during the pre and post-market,...

Nicolas_Pradel

You can check it by yourself by looking at my previous ideas. Each time I buy or sell I publish a related idea on my channel. I usually trade with x3 leverage, unless other leverage is indicated in the corresponding idea. During the same time the NDX went down 7.65%. I outperformed the NDX of more than 60%... My name is Nicolas Pradel. I have started learning...

Nicolas_Pradel

It would be hard to ignore this double top. However not a big one. Btw a lot of indicators (Squeeze momentum, MACD) are still bullish or neutrals. There is not (for me) enough strength in this sole pattern to short SPY and NDX, but you should think to close your long positions. It reminds me this double top: It could bounce on the support as it could break...

Nicolas_Pradel

From here everything is possible. I sold friday evening the SQQQ I bought wednesday (+8.82% in two days...). And you, where do you think the market is heading?

Nicolas_Pradel

This is the strongest bearish pattern ever. Happen one to twice a year. Cause of it, the index felt hard on early post-market. I advice to short the NDX with x3 leverage at the closing / in the post-market. But it's probably too late for you now, a lots of traders did it and the index felt hard... Btw it's good to know for the next time you will see this...

Nicolas_Pradel

2 entries (one aggressive and/or one filtered), at the end of the two biggest previous crash... I bought NDX at the closing price (15018), with a stop-loss at -3%, and I advice to put only 20 to 33% of the money to have a risk below 1% (the past weeks were all doom and gloom and we do not know for sure what could happen next...) If you want to download an...

Nicolas_Pradel

Supports broken. Same thing on AMEX:SPY , including his EMA. Even the best indicators got difficult to be read. We clearly are going out of our 15 months channel. Things start to be hazy. I hope you made a lot of money on the past two years because it's becoming trickier. My take home message would be: " There is time to go long, time to go short...

Nicolas_Pradel

Since february 2020 a green candle has been seen round 16 times on the top of the EMA50. For 13 times out of 16 SPY took +2.62% in the next 5 days. Sometimes much more on a longer period. In order to trade this pattern the best is to buy at the closing, and to put a close stop loss (something round 0.3%...). This kind of stop loss worked 12 times out of 13... The...

Nicolas_Pradel

I have ploted for the new year the 2022 Wall Street forecasts (from 2017 to today). 1 line = the target of the bank and the name of the bank. Blue = target range Black number = annual change Note = link to the forecast

Nicolas_Pradel

For decades the Barron's big money poll tries to gauge the psychology of the market conducting a survey of the fund's managers, every 6 months. I plotted on a chart the results of the last 7 surveys. In the callouts are the titles of the results . The line represents the bulls forecast (in green) and the bears forecasts (in red) , using their estimated ...

Nicolas_Pradel

Right time to set your order. Mine: -Bought at 16122.91, with no leverage effect. -Stop loss at 15865.00

Nicolas_Pradel

The 22 and 26 of november I have started to short the Nasdaq100. On the 26 all my technical indicators turned bearish. December the 3 the N100 has lost 7.3% from his previous high, and went widely below the -2DS of the Bollinger Band. Surprisingly between the 6 and the 7 the N100 took +1.78%. That's the biggest up-gap since march. Moreover in a bear market... When...

Nicolas_Pradel

It starts to look like a head and shoulders. Look carefully at the levels, on the previous year each time the line was crossed, the trend tumbled toward the support. By the way I am resolutely bearish since friday (due to my technical indicators, which were the subject of my last post).

Nicolas_Pradel

One idea: trade the trend. 4 indicators: net volume + (SAR and/or Squeeze Momentum and/or MACD). All are saying the same thing: it's the beginning of a correction. Reliable since the beginning of this channel. Enough reliable to put 2x or 3x leverage. Choose months ago (I was waiting for the right time). Target: the support round december the 13. Look at my...

Nicolas_Pradel

On the past 2 years, round all the bearish engulfing with an important asymmetry between the red and the green candle (a ration above 8 to 10) were sell signal. 5 patterns, from the 2020-09-16 to the 2021-10-08, mean drop the tomorrow (D1) at the closing from the closing price of D0 : -1.2% (and -1% the day after tomorrow (D2) from the end of D0). For all...