OTM-Fadhl

OTM-Fadhl

FA Analysis: 1- Recent macro-economic data were good. But they do not reflect the Tariffs impacts. 2- All expected data (i.e., inflation, consumer sentiment) were inline with the projected tariff impacts. 3- Uncertainty is in the driver seat as long as Trump flip flop with his tariffs. 4- The 90-day tariff pause ends by July 4th!!! Surprise...surprise... the...

OTM-Fadhl

FA Analysis: 1- Trump's deals have had the upper hand recently and market interest in Gold has soften and price retraced down. 2- also, the macro-economic data was good which has validated Gold retrace. 3- Last Friday US data: Consumer sentiment came undershoot and Inflation Expectations came overshoot. These data reflect really the upcoming impacts of tariffs...

OTM-Fadhl

FA Analysis: 1- Not much to update in comparison to last week analysis. - Trump deals have had the upper hand; Market took them as a relief and stocks and equities are crumbs away from the pre-tariffs values. - FED has tied hands: a) On one hand, FED knows very well the negative impacts of tariffs that both prices and employment are not hit yet by them. b) On the...

OTM-Fadhl

FA Analysis: 1- We have two forces (Trump's team, policy and tweets and the FED) as market movers. 2- Trump's Team: Maintaining the UNCERTAINTY - Minimum tariffs is 10% which is at least 500% of the original tariffs. - Have a clear strategy: One screaming very high and the other one, the nice guy, offers 10-25% tariffs - All the deals won't be binding deals; so...

OTM-Fadhl

As expected, NQ is consolidating. Tomorrow is a big day in terms of looking forward. What should we expect from the FED? 1- FED Mandate is: Employment and Inflation 2- FED has always said: FED policy is data related. The latest data on both Employment and Inflation were not sufficiently bad to rationalize the rate cuts and feed Trump's pressure. Hence, I think...

OTM-Fadhl

While market is waiting for a clear hint from the FED or a concluded deals on tariffs, NQ has entered in a consolidation phase.

OTM-Fadhl

FA Analysis: 1- Macro economic Indicators: Most data came red and few were inline confirming the slowing down of the economy. 2- Inflation data came better than expected. 3- Trump Tariffs: Strong rumors about deals underway from this week. The 90-day pause will become an indeterminate pause. 4- We have the FED this week. Nothing in terms of immediate rate cut,...

OTM-Fadhl

Good day! Yesterday candle was bearish, Is it the end of the upper move? All will depend on today's data and rumors from WH. 1- Undershoot data: Very bad for equities and NQ starts its Wave 3. But keep in mind, an undershoot also means FED will cut and free money will be on the table which is positive equities. 2- Inline: Bad for equities as FED rate cut and free...

OTM-Fadhl

NQ Monthly candle was bullish! Price retraced up to 61.8 fib. From this TF, we should expect a continuation up!! This is against my weekly analysis that projected 5 down waves and price has reached the end of Wave 2. Let see how it works out.

OTM-Fadhl

OIL ST/MT Outlook: Sell From FA perspective, Oil is in downtrend: 1- Worldwide recession is/will create a lower demand for oil. 2- Risk: Agreements between Iran-USA and Ukraine-Russia will fade out any risk related. From TA perspective: 1- Monthly close is a strong bearish. A continuation down is expected. 2- Next major stop is around $40.

OTM-Fadhl

Good day! Following the weekly analysis, here are possible movements for the next few sessions. As I mentioned few times now, there is still small room left to the upside followed by a consolidation before resuming the down trend with the beginning of Wave 3 and its Initial Swing. Price has already made a new HH. Price might continue up without making a new HL....

OTM-Fadhl

FA Analysis: 1- Earnings season: In my view, it's irrelevant in terms of the data itself! It reflects the pre-tariffs era. Market is always looking forward. However, it gives market the opportunity for a relief, consolidation and rebalancing. So beside the kneejerk reaction, uncertainty is in the driver seat. 2- Trump's policies: The 90-day pause has a big chance...

OTM-Fadhl

Today's Plan: So far, NQ is behaving as expected besides Trump cornucopia tweets:) NQ might not complete the Impulsive swing today, but the direction is up.

OTM-Fadhl

Following my previous post. Here is my plan for today after NY opening range.

OTM-Fadhl

Price is in its way to complete the last impulsive swing within Wave 2. There is no urgency to close the gap from the opening week; it will be closed during the move down of wave 3. Looking to buy from NY opening range.

OTM-Fadhl

NQ has completed both Initial and retrace swings of wave 2 and now NQ is in its way to complete the Impulsive swing. We got a breakout and retest of the upper TL and price is moving up. We have Manufacturing and Services data in a few. 1- Inline data: A shy retrace and continuation up/ 2- Undershoot: Price might retest again the upper TL. 3- Overshoot: Direct move up.

OTM-Fadhl

Happy week! ST/Mt/Lt Outlook: SELL FA Analysis: 1- US is in or about to be in RECESSION. 2- US is isolating itself from the world economy; from the driver seat. 3- 90-days tariff pause: Market relief, recovery period; it's absolutely not a "buying the dip" strategy! 4- Inflation (CPI and PPI) are softening surprisingly!!! The explanation might be from a lower...

OTM-Fadhl

Good day! After the 90-day pause of the tariffs, NQ should consolidate in the ST (2-3 days) before resuming the fundamental downtrend. The effect of CPI and PPI will be very limited whatsoever the data. However Consumer data will trigger the downtrend if this data is undershoot. Otherwise, consolidation will prevail. The blue box should delimitate the consolidation area.