OTM-Fadhl

OTM-Fadhl

FA Analysis: 1- Last week macro economic data came +/- inline which did not help to resolve the UNCERYTAINTY. 2- Trump tariffs flip plop confirmed the uncertainty. 3- This week, we have Job Jolts, CPI. PPI and Consumer confidence; they're all key data to resolve the uncertainty. Inline data won't help; we need an overshoot or undershoot. So until data news, price...

OTM-Fadhl Updated 

Good day! Today is a big day for many reasons, but mainly to clear the context of uncertainty. 1- How to read and translate NFP data? * Inline data: It's positive for equities; it's a ST relief. * Overshoot: This is tricky: the Average Hourly Earnings must be inline or below expectation of 0.3% and strong green the two other components (NFP and Unemployment Rate)....

OTM-Fadhl

Yesterday close confirmed again the uncertainty and provided an inside, irrelevant daily candle. It seems the upper TL working as resistance. It worked nicely yesterday.

OTM-Fadhl

Just for the record, Oil achieved the ST target. Recession, tariffs and Peace will continue to send oil down.

OTM-Fadhl

EU has been under recession for a while now and reached the bottom. Any peace in Ukraine will be positive EU. On the other equation, the USA economy was the only economy going well up to month ago. But the recent economic data are sustainably showing weaknesses. Market has started to price in a recession. Adding to the fear of recession, Trump tariffs. So based on...

OTM-Fadhl

Good day! Yesterday close finally was not bullish; last hour saved the day if I may say! Yesterday candle is the definition of uncertainty! Price closed below the key level of 20529 but above the weekly low. - Fear of recession; - Tax cuts; - Tariffs and non-tariffs; - Peace in Ukraine No surprises from Trump speech... but we will hear from him daily! Key data...

OTM-Fadhl

FA Analysis: 1- World economy and US economy are slowing down and the fear of recession is here. This time the recession will be caused by both demand and supply. The last one was supply-based. 2- US politics is the definition of self-destruction: tariffs; throwing under the bus Europe, Canada, Mexico and all historic allies. 3- Inflation is up. All these...

OTM-Fadhl

1- What a day yesterday! The bloodbath is not completed yet! Today is the end of D/W/M and it will be another huge red candle; another 800-900 points to the downside! 2- I was wrong about a retrace up; NVDA results were not sufficient to attract buyers. Market is pricing in the slowing down of US economy with a real risk of recession; all macro-data were bad...

OTM-Fadhl Updated 

Yesterday NQ closed very bearish and if today's Consumer Confidence data is bad, we should see another red candle.

OTM-Fadhl

FA Analysis: 1- World economy and US economy are slowing down; risk of recession is up again. 2- Inflation is up 3- Trump tariffs and reciprocity are not helping. 4- Deep Seek news is currently behind the scene but it has a huge negative impacts on AI and semi-conductors for the ST and MT. All the above factors are negative for stocks and equities (i.e.,...

OTM-Fadhl

FA Analysis: 1- US and World economy are slowing down whereas Inflation is up. - For ST, this is Gold negative as Investors need to exchange Gold to absorb equity losses and buy Bonds. - For MT, this is positive for Gold. 2- End of war is Gold negative. 3- Tariffs is Gold positive. But I think Trumps will delay them and move towards Tax cuts and deregulation. The...

OTM-Fadhl

FA Analysis: 1- Based on the recent macro-economic data, US economy is slowing down which it's slowing down the demand. 2- Trump is making pressure on oil producer to reduce the price. 3- US is fully opening their oil production. 4- End of war in Ukraine. All the above are very Oil bearish factors. TA Analysis: 1- Price is making LL-LH. A continuation down is...

OTM-Fadhl

FA Analysis: 1- From macro-economic perspective, next week we have the Fed Minutes which is irrelevant and late in the week very relevant data to confirm the economic slowdown. 2- Trump likes attention; so expect every day at least one tweet. TA Analysis: 1- Price reached last year high. Price closed very bullish in weekly and daily, but just below last year...

OTM-Fadhl

EURUSD has finally broken and closed below 1.094x. The Sell Swing is confirmed in my view. I expect a test of 1.098x (A area), then PA has to break 1.083x (B level).

OTM-Fadhl

My EURUSD ST-MT-LT Outlook is Sell . From TA perspective, the direction is still down. PA has retraced exactly 61.8 Fib with 1.127x. From FA perspective, all criteria favor US data in comparison to EU. Hence, any break and close below 1.094x will validate the Sell Swing . My LT target is 0.78!

OTM-Fadhl

EU has reaching the final target around 1.035x. It was in one shot from 9940! (400 pips!). An extension up 1.053x is possible (I doubt it) as Dollar Index still has room to 105.56. This is supposed to be the end of the Retrace of the Impulsive Wave (Daily TF) which is as well the Initial Wave (Weekly TF). So the Retrace of the Retrace can go up to 9940. For the...

OTM-Fadhl

Clearly EU did not make a LL on Daily and has started an accumulation phase with HHHLLHLL. I think PA needs to test again 9700 to move up to 1.03. The channels will provide the retraces areas.

OTM-Fadhl

GOLD has completed the long wave up and entered into consolidation/accumulation phase, now it's clearly GOLD is in downtrend. My target is 1451.