OTM-Fadhl

OTM-Fadhl

FA Analysis: 1- This week, we have major central banks meetings. The most important one is the FED. Market is seeking hints and signals for free money and rate cuts to tackle the manufactured recession created by Trump "policies". Any signal of free money from the FED will be well received; any other outcome will be translated in a huge sell-off of stocks and...

OTM-Fadhl

I sold NQ after price reached the upper TL. STP is just above last week low.

OTM-Fadhl

Data came very red. NQ should continue the down trend. Here is my planned Sell entry after the price breakout both the 5min range the bearish flag.

OTM-Fadhl

Good day! During Asian and European sessions, price retraced and broke the upper TL. Closing above TL, it will end the down movement for ST. This said, I want to pick your attention on two news: 1- What is happening currently in Germany in terms of unlocking the spending, including military spending is very relevant for the future. As a consequence, DAX and all...

OTM-Fadhl

We got a strong red daily candle. It's very bearish, but no brake yet! Tomorrow, we have Consumer Sentiment. 1- With an undershoot data, price will break down with no return; 2- Inline or an overshoot data, price will bounce and stay within TL as market is not ready to move up until the FED jump in or Tax cut be in place. Trade safely!

OTM-Fadhl

Following PPI data that came undershoot, I expect a zigzag movement today: up and down. Here is my potential entry to be confirmed after NY opening range.

OTM-Fadhl

As USA is entering into recession and Trump opened all production valves with the increase of production worldwide. The supply is way above the demand. Hence, Oil price must drop below 50.

OTM-Fadhl

We got an irrelevant daily close . Tomorrow, we have PPI data. NQ will behave in the same manner of CPI: 1- Overshoot: NQ down; 2- Inline or Undershoot: A bounce and down (zigzag). What I want to highlight is that the current area 19100-19600 seems to become ST/MT Support or Resistance. Hence price might continue to be around it until the end of the week and the...

OTM-Fadhl

Good day! Price is still bearish and ready for going further down. We've key data in a few with CPI. 1- Any overshoot (and it's expected) will send down NQ. 2- Inline and undershoot will provide a shy bounce and resume down. The world is witnessing how USA is treating its closest ally and neighbor. In my view, BRICS countries and their allies will benefit from...

OTM-Fadhl

FA Analysis: 1- Last week macro economic data came +/- inline which did not help to resolve the UNCERYTAINTY. 2- Trump tariffs flip plop confirmed the uncertainty. 3- This week, we have Job Jolts, CPI. PPI and Consumer confidence; they're all key data to resolve the uncertainty. Inline data won't help; we need an overshoot or undershoot. So until data news, price...

OTM-Fadhl Updated 

Good day! Today is a big day for many reasons, but mainly to clear the context of uncertainty. 1- How to read and translate NFP data? * Inline data: It's positive for equities; it's a ST relief. * Overshoot: This is tricky: the Average Hourly Earnings must be inline or below expectation of 0.3% and strong green the two other components (NFP and Unemployment Rate)....

OTM-Fadhl

Yesterday close confirmed again the uncertainty and provided an inside, irrelevant daily candle. It seems the upper TL working as resistance. It worked nicely yesterday.

OTM-Fadhl

Just for the record, Oil achieved the ST target. Recession, tariffs and Peace will continue to send oil down.

OTM-Fadhl

EU has been under recession for a while now and reached the bottom. Any peace in Ukraine will be positive EU. On the other equation, the USA economy was the only economy going well up to month ago. But the recent economic data are sustainably showing weaknesses. Market has started to price in a recession. Adding to the fear of recession, Trump tariffs. So based on...

OTM-Fadhl

Good day! Yesterday close finally was not bullish; last hour saved the day if I may say! Yesterday candle is the definition of uncertainty! Price closed below the key level of 20529 but above the weekly low. - Fear of recession; - Tax cuts; - Tariffs and non-tariffs; - Peace in Ukraine No surprises from Trump speech... but we will hear from him daily! Key data...

OTM-Fadhl

FA Analysis: 1- World economy and US economy are slowing down and the fear of recession is here. This time the recession will be caused by both demand and supply. The last one was supply-based. 2- US politics is the definition of self-destruction: tariffs; throwing under the bus Europe, Canada, Mexico and all historic allies. 3- Inflation is up. All these...

OTM-Fadhl

1- What a day yesterday! The bloodbath is not completed yet! Today is the end of D/W/M and it will be another huge red candle; another 800-900 points to the downside! 2- I was wrong about a retrace up; NVDA results were not sufficient to attract buyers. Market is pricing in the slowing down of US economy with a real risk of recession; all macro-data were bad...

OTM-Fadhl Updated 

Yesterday NQ closed very bearish and if today's Consumer Confidence data is bad, we should see another red candle.