OTM-Fadhl

OTM-Fadhl Updated 

Yesterday NQ closed very bearish and if today's Consumer Confidence data is bad, we should see another red candle.

OTM-Fadhl

FA Analysis: 1- World economy and US economy are slowing down; risk of recession is up again. 2- Inflation is up 3- Trump tariffs and reciprocity are not helping. 4- Deep Seek news is currently behind the scene but it has a huge negative impacts on AI and semi-conductors for the ST and MT. All the above factors are negative for stocks and equities (i.e.,...

OTM-Fadhl

FA Analysis: 1- US and World economy are slowing down whereas Inflation is up. - For ST, this is Gold negative as Investors need to exchange Gold to absorb equity losses and buy Bonds. - For MT, this is positive for Gold. 2- End of war is Gold negative. 3- Tariffs is Gold positive. But I think Trumps will delay them and move towards Tax cuts and deregulation. The...

OTM-Fadhl

FA Analysis: 1- Based on the recent macro-economic data, US economy is slowing down which it's slowing down the demand. 2- Trump is making pressure on oil producer to reduce the price. 3- US is fully opening their oil production. 4- End of war in Ukraine. All the above are very Oil bearish factors. TA Analysis: 1- Price is making LL-LH. A continuation down is...

OTM-Fadhl

FA Analysis: 1- From macro-economic perspective, next week we have the Fed Minutes which is irrelevant and late in the week very relevant data to confirm the economic slowdown. 2- Trump likes attention; so expect every day at least one tweet. TA Analysis: 1- Price reached last year high. Price closed very bullish in weekly and daily, but just below last year...

OTM-Fadhl

EURUSD has finally broken and closed below 1.094x. The Sell Swing is confirmed in my view. I expect a test of 1.098x (A area), then PA has to break 1.083x (B level).

OTM-Fadhl

My EURUSD ST-MT-LT Outlook is Sell . From TA perspective, the direction is still down. PA has retraced exactly 61.8 Fib with 1.127x. From FA perspective, all criteria favor US data in comparison to EU. Hence, any break and close below 1.094x will validate the Sell Swing . My LT target is 0.78!

OTM-Fadhl

EU has reaching the final target around 1.035x. It was in one shot from 9940! (400 pips!). An extension up 1.053x is possible (I doubt it) as Dollar Index still has room to 105.56. This is supposed to be the end of the Retrace of the Impulsive Wave (Daily TF) which is as well the Initial Wave (Weekly TF). So the Retrace of the Retrace can go up to 9940. For the...

OTM-Fadhl

Clearly EU did not make a LL on Daily and has started an accumulation phase with HHHLLHLL. I think PA needs to test again 9700 to move up to 1.03. The channels will provide the retraces areas.

OTM-Fadhl

GOLD has completed the long wave up and entered into consolidation/accumulation phase, now it's clearly GOLD is in downtrend. My target is 1451.

OTM-Fadhl

EU has completed the retrace of the Initial Wave up. A test of 9684-9692 is expected, then a strong Impulsive wave up to 1.0344.

OTM-Fadhl

Gold is behaving as expected. I missed the train. However 1760-1763 could provide another opportunity to go short wit a tight stop (1764). If price goes above 1764, Gold might test 1801.

OTM-Fadhl

With NFP and No Tapering for 2021, I expect Dollar to complete it 5th wave down. Dollar is offering a very cheap ticket for ST and MT Swing to the downside. Between 92.5-92.8 is where I see the maximum up.

OTM-Fadhl

In my view, TA Gold did not complete its down wave before resuming up. Currently, Gold is retracing up with a maximum squeeze to 1860-1874; then the impulsive down wave up to 1564. This 1564 has a double confluence: last break up and AB-CD pattern. This scenario will be canceled if the current move up closes above 1912. FA, the current Inflation narrative/story is...

OTM-Fadhl

Hi: These ares my forecast ST targets for Oil. GL!

OTM-Fadhl

Final update! In Short TF, we got a vlaid trigger to sell. GL!

OTM-Fadhl

Hello: So far, no H1 bar closed below $64! However we extended the low. We need to see a full bar closes below the extension to enter short.

OTM-Fadhl

Hello Traders: OPEC cancelled its tomorrow meeting. Any Candle closes below $64 is a good sell trade. We had two weeks in a raw with an overwhelming Oil Inventory, but price didn't drop at all! I might go further up, but I sincerely doubt it! Hence my sell limit at $64.