OldMonk13

OldMonk13

Nifty is nearing it's 50% retracement at 22300, but I believe the major resistance will be at 22500. My view was entirely invalidated yesterday, and I took and SL. Today will be wait and watch how she behaves at major retracement levels.

OldMonk13 Updated 

The higher the Gap up today, the mor confident I shall be to sell on the first tick. There is one stop NIFTY missed in this pilgrimage downhill: "21800". When she realizes it, she would turn around and rush to make that final downward journey before continuing up to where she belongs. A gap down opening is when things will become tricky. In this case there might...

OldMonk13

The "Channel bottom visit" we were referring to a few days ago, is done and the Level we marked " TO be protected" on 2nd May has been visited and protected (No close below that). We got the ritualistic bounce off there and now what ? The way back up to the top of the channel is not going to be an easy one and looks less probable. Was this bounce, induced by Amit...

OldMonk13 Updated 

Will be interesting to see where we open. A gap up will my ideal scenario where we could short with a tight SL from the word "GO...". A neutral opening, again if we plan to go short, the position size will have to be significantly smaller. In case of Gap down opening, I shall wait for a retracement to sell into. That's the plan.

OldMonk13

This is the support we have been waiting for since 2nd of May. Now that we have made daily candles that look a lot like reversal candles to me, I am absolutely sure about being unsure on what to to. Will perhaps let Bank Nifty decide for herself on a moon first. Till then, I have a seat with the audience.

OldMonk13

Will the banks be able to close this week above these crucial levels is the big question. Them Bank Nifty remains the lone crusader who never gave into this bloodbath.

OldMonk13

What good is the fall if the lower levels are not visited. Again that is if we dont care about the weekly candle closing. Let it come down ad visit the 21777 level before it flies again.

OldMonk13

Bank Nifty is stuck in a difficult zone from where it has a lot more to fall than NIFTY before we can say it's with the bears.

OldMonk13

A break and close below yesterday's lows can take NIFTY to 21750 levels. This would not have been a fleeting thought if it was not for the election result scenario.

OldMonk13

If the ritual we mentioned yesterday plays out, a PUT buy in Bank nifty could be the trade of the year. But again Bank Nifty is also at a crucial FVG level. And to the bottom of the channel, it has a long way to go.

OldMonk13

Nifty spot and FUT, both settled at crucial levels marked in our previous analysis. This is the level that has to be protected for Nifty to stay "NOT BEARISH" at least. Now with an even in sight, I am not sure how it will behave. My previous narrative was that Nifty would stay at ATH levels and with the election result, would fall. But now it seems like there is a...

OldMonk13

The last time Bank Nifty tried going up without testing the bottom of this channel was in Jan 2024. Look at what happened then. We opened to a large Gap down and completed the ritual. That ritual is pending in Bank Nifty. If that is the case, we will see a sting into the bottom before we continue higher.

OldMonk13

If we consider the high and low of the last day candle in futures as a range, a break in either direction can give a sharp sting that way before turning and going the opposite way. This is just a story that played in my head. And the probability of this being on the down side seems more likely. 22350 and 22300 may be likely in this case before we see a short...

OldMonk13

Bank Nifty again is more resilient than NIFTY. It is seen respecting the Daily FVG and looks ready consolidate with a positive bias. Just the hammer created on the top of a rally caps the up side. Hope sellers take a breather before they swing back into action.

OldMonk13

Shorters at 22800-900 range have proved me wrong. I should have thought of the "Retracement" shorters, who are essentially piggyback day traders who wat for a retracement to institutional bulk orders and punch in their own, hoping the levels hold. Plus the news of taxation, did th trick. In this case, we should either fly or Consolidate. Not fall further.

OldMonk13

22650. Who are these straddle writers who believe in the fables of the fall of Titans? Depending on the Pre market open price, we can see when they will run for cover. Not IF, but WHEN. Let us see if we can gather enough buyers to take out the fabled 22800 short sellers today. Most likely it might happen by the end of the day.

OldMonk13

The FVG has been respected and this implies we are ready to fly. All will depend on the nerves of 49500 straddle writers. What steel their nerves are made of. If they run, Bank nifty runs to 50k. Now 50K is a psycho level and so are the sellers there. Overall I am bullish.

OldMonk13

Bank Nifty was never bearish the whole time. There is every possibility that 49300 will be protected this week. Every dip in the morning should be seen as a chance to buy calls. Unless some extraordinary selling comes in the market, Bank Nifty should either consolidate or fly. The only negative is the bearish day candle formed yesterday. The top of which will be...