OliverSloup_BlueLine

OliverSloup_BlueLine

Soybeans Technicacls: The market sling-shotted higher last night. Our first resistance in Friday’s report was 1495-1505. Our next resistance pocket didn’t come in until 1560-1566, which the market came very close to tagging last night. As with corn, we are in the sell rallies camp. A conviction close or consecutive close back above $16.00 would neutralize that...

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Grain futures came out of the gates strong last night but are retreating as weather forecasts continue to change. This is to be expected this time of year. There is a USDA report tomorrow, but weather forecasts this week will likely have a bigger impact on prices. We will have estimates out later this afternoon. Corn Commitments of Traders Update: Friday’s CoT...

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Friday’s Slaughter is estimated at 125,000. 4,000 more than last week, and 4,000 more than the same week last year. Friday’s Cutout Values Choice: 267.89, Down .18 from the previous day. Select: 241.85, Down .73 from the previous day. Choice/Select Spread: 26.04 5 Area Average Cattle Price Live Steer:144.37 Live Heifer: 141.69 Dressed Steer: 232.30 Dressed...

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Lean Hogs Technicals (August): It was a risk-off day in nearly every commodity yesterday, with the exception of lean hogs. Lean hog futures were able to rally up near the 50-day moving average which we’ve listed as first resistance. That finished yesterday’s session at 106.90. Just above that is trendline resistance from the March 31st high, that comes in near...

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Feeder Cattle Technicals (August): Feeder cattle made an attempt to breakout yesterday but fell flat, despite the bloodbath in the grain complex. As mentioned in recent reports, the inability to take out recent highs with the collapse in grains should be a caution flag for the Bulls. That’s not to say we can’t rally from here, but the recent price action has been...

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Tuesday’s Slaughter is estimated at 126,000. Unchanged from last week, and 6,000 more than the same week last year. Tuesday’s Cutout Values Choice: 264.66, Up .84 from the previous day. Select: 239.87 Down .60 from the previous day. Choice/Select Spread: 24.79 5 Area Average Cattle Price Live Steer: N/A Live Heifer: N/A Dressed Steer: N/A Dressed Heifer:...

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Soybeans Seasonal Trends in Play: Short November soybeans from 7/1-8/31. This has been profitable for 13 of the last 15 years with the average gain being roughly 40 cents, or $2,000 per one 5,000-bushel contract. Fundamentals: Yesterday's weekly Crop Progress report showed good/excellent conditions at 63%, this is a 2% drop from last week and 1% lower than...

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Wheat Fundamentals: Yesterday's crop progress report showed spring wheat ratings at 66% good/excellent, 7% better than estimates. Winter wheat is 54% harvested, a hair behind expectations. Yesterday's weekly export inspections came in at 111,830 metric tons, well below the range of estimates. Technicals: Our bias has been in bearish territory for a while now, but...

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Corn Seasonal Trends in Play: Short September corn from 6/13-7/27. This has been profitable for 13 of the last 15 years with the average gain being roughly 33 cents, or $1,650 per one 5,000-bushel contract. Fundamentals: Yesterday's weekly Crop Progress report showed good/excellent conditions at 64%, this is a 3% drop from last week and 1% lower than...

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Soybeans Commitments of Traders Update: Friday’s CoT report showed Managed Money were net sellers of 29,914 futures/options contracts through June 28th. Majority of this was long liquidation, 26,432 contracts. This shrinks their net long position to 124,498 futures/options. Fundamentals: Late last week there were rumors circulating that 8 cargoes of soybeans were...

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Corn Commitments of Traders Update: Friday’s CoT report showed Managed Money were net sellers of 36,649 futures/options contracts through June 28th. This was all long liquidation, 38,185 contracts, with a tiny bit of short covering. This shrinks their net long position to 228,612 futures/options. Seasonal Trends in Play: Short September corn from 6/13-7/27. This...

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Wheat Technicals (September): September wheat futures continued their descent yesterday, breaking and closing below the 200-day moving average for the first time in this contract's lifetime (September 2022 futures). This opens the door for a drop down near 800 which is where the market started accelerating to the upside during the Russian invasion of Ukraine....

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Soybeans Technicals (August): Yesterday’s USDA report put some pep in soybeans step right out of the gat, launching prices all they way up to technical resistance near $16.00. This is obviously a psychologically significant level, but it also represents the 50 and 100 day moving average, along with the breakdown point from June 22nd. Despite the friendly report,...

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Corn Seasonal Trends in Play: Short September corn from 6/13-7/27. This has been profitable for 13 of the last 15 years with the average gain being roughly 33 cents, or $1,650 per one 5,000-bushel contract. Technicals (September): Yesterday’s USDA report was Neutral, but Neutral wasn’t enough to feed the Bull into the last trading day of the month/quarter, which...

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Lean Hogs Technicals (August): It was the last trading day of the month and quarter, which may have been the main catalyst for breaking lean hogs below what we have labeled a “MUST HOLD” support level, defined by the 200-day moving average and trendline support. This will now act as our pivot pocket, 103.00-103.95. Resistance: 108.125**, 109.45***,...

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Feeder Cattle Technicals (August): Feeder cattle were able to catch a rally yesterday, thanks in part to the corn market collapsing following a “neutral” USDA report. Though it was nice to see a rally, the recent price action relative to the sharp decline in corn has been less than impressive. Not that it has to be a 1:1 correlation, but we would have expected to...

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Thursday’s Slaughter is estimated at 124,000. 2,000 more than last week, and 7,000 more than the same week last year. Thursday’s Cutout Values Choice: 264.00, Down .88 from the previous day. Select: 240.57 Down .24 from the previous day. Choice/Select Spread: 23.43 5 Area Average Cattle Price Live Steer: 145.85 Live Heifer: 143.55 Dressed Steer: 234.01 Dressed...

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Lean Hogs The quarterly Hogs and Pigs report will be out after the close. Estimates are: All hogs and pigs - 99.0% Breeding herd - 98.9% Market hogs - 99.0% Technicals (August): Lean hog futures broke lower yesterday, trading into 4-star support from 103.00-103.95. This pocket represents trendline support and the 200day moving average. A failure here could take...