OliverSloup_BlueLine

OliverSloup_BlueLine

Feeder Cattle Technicals (August): August feeder cattle futures broke below trendline support yesterday, which took prices into our 4-star support pocket, 171.45-172.40. All else held equal, this is a MUST HOLD pocket for the Bulls, a break and close below could open the door for a drop into the mid-160’s. We say “all else held equal” because tomorrow’s USDA...

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Tuesday’s Slaughter is estimated at 126,000. Unchanged from last week and 5,000 more than the same week last year. Tuesday’s Cutout Values Choice: 267.14, Down 1.54 from the previous day. Select: 243.31, Down 1.93 from the previous day. Choice/Select Spread: 23.44 5 Area Average Cattle Price Live Steer: 137.00 Live Heifer: 147.20 Dressed Steer: N/A Dressed...

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Wheat Technicals: Wheat futures are attempting to rebound back towards our resistance pocket, 960-970, previously this was support. If the Bulls cannot achieve a conviction close back above this pocket, we could see the selling pick back up. With that said, a breakout and close above here could spark a wave of short covering, with little significant resistance...

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Soybeans Fundamentals: All eyes will be on tomorrow’s USDA report. The range of estimates for planted acres is 89.2-92.4 million, the USDA was at 91.0 in March. The average estimate for US soybean ending stocks as of June 1 is .954 billion bushels. Last year at this time we were at .769. Technicals (August): The market has rallied back to our resistance pocket,...

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Corn Fundamentals: Corn futures have traded both sides of unchanged in the overnight and early morning session as prices consolidate ahead of end of month, end of quarter, and all-important USDA report. The range of estimates for acres comes in from 88.4-91.0 million. In March the USDA was at 89.5. The average estimate for US corn stocks as of June 1 is 4.345...

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Feeder Cattle Technicals (August): August feeder cattle were technically sound yesterday, trading nearly perfectly against our technical support and resistance pockets, only to finish the session near our pivot pocket. Those technical pockets remain in play today as the market continues to coil, marking higher lows and lower highs. This type of consolidation...

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Lean Hogs Technicals (August): August lean hogs have been trapped between the 200-day moving average and 50 day moving average for a while now, but as those converge it could setup for a bigger directional move (instead of the choppy sideways trade that we’ve been stuck in for a month). First resistance comes in from 108.65-109.45. This pocket represents trendline...

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Mondays Slaughter is estimated at 125,000. 1,000 more than last week and 6,000 more than the same week last year. Monday's Cutout Values Choice: 268.68, Up 3.70 from the previous day. Select: 245.24, Up .22 from the previous day. Choice/Select Spread: 23.44 5 Area Average Cattle Price Live Steer: 144.55 Live Heifer: 141.88 Dressed Steer: 235.22 Dressed Heifer:...

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Corn Seasonal Trends in Play: Short September corn from 6/13-7/27. This has been profitable for 13 of the last 15 years with the average gain being roughly 33 cents, or $1,650 per one 5,000-bushel contract. Fundamentals: Yesterday’s crop progress showed deteriorating crop conditions (though still better than last year at this time) with good/excellent ratings at...

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Wheat Techncials (September): The market has been in free fall for the last week after breaking below the low end of the range and the 100-day moving average. The market is trying to find its footing in the early morning trade, but the Bulls have their work cut out for them to repair the immense amount of technical damage that has been done since breaking down....

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Soybeans Fundamentals: Soybean futures are higher this morning after yesterday’s crop progress report showed a drop in good/excellent conditions of 3%. Keep in mind that we are still 5% better than where we were at this time last year. All eyes will be on Thursday’s USDA report. The range of estimates for planted acres is 89.2-92.4 million, the USDA was at 91.0...

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July cotton futures collapsed on first notice day, which is generally a thin volume trade with no limits. This will be one for the books and a nice reminder that if you don't want to deal with delivery of futures, you should strongly consider rolling or flattening positions before first notice day.

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WEAT continues to trend lower, alongside corn and soybean prices. Many of these charts have turned bearish as funds look to trim back some of their historically long positions. Weather will continue to be a key factor going forward, as of now, it looks favorable which may be adding to the pressure. July options expiration is tomorrow, a lot of open interest at...

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Wheat (July) Technicals: Wheat futures are on the verge of a bigger technical breakdown if they cannot get back into positive territory today. The next support level below here doesn’t come in until 925-930, with the more significant pocket not coming in until 897-902. Bias: Neutral/Bearish Previous Session Bias: Neutral/Bearish Resistance: 1027 ¼-1034 ¼****,...

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Soybeans (July) Technicals: July soybean futures got hit hard last night and remain under pressure in the early morning trade. 4-star support from 1644 ¾-1650 looked as though it would hold into options expiration, with yesterday’s low coming in at 1647 ½. Those hopes evaporated quickly last night as the breakdown below support accelerated the selling, taking us...

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Corn (July) Technicals: July corn futures are weaker in the overnight/early morning trade. Though it looks ugly on the screen, we have not broken below our significant support pocket, 747-753. As mentioned from the start of the week, July options expiration may be the catalyst to help July corn futures stabilize into the end of the week. December corn….no that’s...

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Lean Hogs Technicals (July): July lean hogs were able to breakout above trendline resistance and the 50-day moving average which led way to an extension to our next resistance level mentioned in yesterday’s report, we’ve defined that wide ranging pocket as 112.825-114.00. Previous resistance will now act as support, that comes in near 110.50-111.475. Resistance:...

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Live Cattle Technicals (August): August live cattle were under pressure all day yesterday, trading down to the low end of our first support pocket, 134.85-135.35. Yesterday’s low was 134.85. If the Bulls cannot defend this pocket through today’s session, it may open the door for another leg lower, with the next support pocket coming in near 132.45-132.775. On the...