OlympusLab

OlympusLab

Fundamental Backdrop 1. Saudi Arabia and other OPEC+ oil producers on Sunday announced further oil output cuts of around 1.16 million barrels per day 2. This can cause a bullish run in prices in the long run. Technical Confluences 1. Price near 81.7 resistance 2. Price shot through the support at 72.50 with strong bullish momentum, causing a market gap Idea...

OlympusLab

Fundamental Backdrop 1. The upcoming Cash Rate on Tuesday is expected to increase from previous 3.60% to 3.85% 2. This could cause a roughly 75-150 pip drop based on past data if the RBA statement is seen as Dovish. Technical Confluences 1. Price reflected off resistance at 0.67400 2. Near-term support at 0.66400 3. Next support below at 0.66000 Idea If the...

OlympusLab

Fundamental Backdrop 1. China's Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) beat expectations, indicating that the economy is improving faster than expected 2. This can help further strengthen the NZDUSD because China is New Zealand's second-largest trading partner Technical Confluences 1. Price at the 0.62800 support level 2. Next major resistance at 0.63650 Idea...

OlympusLab

Fundamental Backdrop 1. China's Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) beat expectations, indicating that the economy is improving faster than expected 2. This can help further strengthen the AUD because China is Australia's largest trading partner. Technical Confluences 1. Price at the 0.67200 support level 2. Near term resistance at 0.67500 Idea With a medium...

OlympusLab

Fundamental Backdrop 1. Core PCE Price Index at 830pm GMT+8, am anticipating a better than previous result which could potentially see further downside momentum on DXY. 2. Sentiments from the market continues to be bearish on the DXY. 3. Economic sentiments from an increase in unemployment claims and final GDP q/q printing 2.6% lower than 2.7% forecast sets the...

OlympusLab

Fundamental Backdrop 1. EURUSD has been bullish 2. Tonight's final GDP q/q for the US could give us an insight on the US economy 3. Market has been pricing in a bullish economy for the US which could potentially lead to short term downside potential in EURUSD Technical Confluences 1. Price is nearing the resistance level at 1.0881 and could see rejection off...

OlympusLab

Fundamental Backdrop 1. NZD Building Consents m/m, a leading gauge of future construction activity dropped from -5.2% to -9% 2. This can lead to lesser jobs and reduced construction services 3. NZD ANZ Business Confidence, a leading indicator of economic health dropped from -43.3 to -43.4 4. This could be an early signal of reduced future economic activity such...

OlympusLab Updated 

Fundamental Backdrop 1. The AUD CPI y/y dropped from 7.4% to 6.8%, which is also worst than expected of 7.2%. 2. This suggests that the Australian economy is not doing as well as previously thought. 3. It could lead the RBA to lower interest rates in the future which could lead to a depreciation of the currency. Technical Confluences 1. Price at the 0.67100...

OlympusLab

Fundamental Backdrop 1. Uncertainty continues to surround the USD 2. Fed balance sheet continues to inject money to aid the banks in crisis Technical Confluences 1. Resistance level that price is currently at can potentially be rejected before heading back down 2. Price could potentially create a new lower low 3. on the H4 timeframe, DXY is on a bearish trend...

OlympusLab

Fundamental Backdrop 1. Plenty of uncertainty surrounding the banking and financial system/ USD. 2. JPY continues to be the more stable currency. Technical Confluences 1. Price in a strong bearish trend with price under the Ichimoku cloud 2. Lower lows and lower highs are being formed 3. Price can potentially retest the support level at 129.82. Idea Looking...

OlympusLab Updated 

Fundamental Backdrop 1. JPY Flash Manufacturing PMI, a leading indicator of economic health, increased from 47.7 to 48.6. 2. Actual result is also better than the expected 48.2 3. Last time we saw better results was in October and November 2021, which saw a 40 - 80 pip drop 4. Bias for today is medium bearish. Technical Confluences 1. Price in a strong bearish...

OlympusLab

Fundamental Backdrop 1. GBP inflation came out strong and paves way for more hawkishness from the BOE and rate hikes. 2. JPY continues to be the dove. Technical Confluences 1. Price is currently on a higher timeframe bullish trend 2. Price could tap on the H4 resistance above (red zone) 3. Price have cleared the previous daily low Idea Looking for the...

OlympusLab

Fundamental Backdrop 1. Plenty of instability in the market due to the SVB crisis and other banks being heavily affected by it. 2. The Fed hiked rates by 25 bps 3. The Fed also cautioned about the recent banking crisis and indicated that hikes are nearing an end. 4. The Fed's move may indicate that the economy could be stronger and that the currency could weaken...

OlympusLab

Fundamental Backdrop 1. Plenty of instability in the market due to the SVB crisis and other banks being heavily affected by it. 2. The Fed is incentivised to either pause rates or maintain at 25bps due to the current instability in the market. Technical Confluences 1. Price is currently in a bearish trend. 2. Price is near the H4 support area at 102.65. 3....

OlympusLab

What is FOMC, and what does it do? FOMC stands for Federal Open Market Committee. It's a group of people who work for the US government and makes decisions about the country's money. They decide how much money should be in circulation and how much it should cost to borrow money. How does FOMC affect the forex market? FOMC's decisions can affect the forex...

OlympusLab

Fundamental Backdrop 1. Plenty of instability in the market due to the SVB crisis and other banks being heavily affected by it. 2. GOLD, as a safe haven asset, flew to the highs to 2000 and is currently rejecting. 3. This is fuelled by the instability with the USD. Technical Confluences 1. Price could potentially retrace back to the H4 support level at 1959.24...

OlympusLab

Fundamental Backdrop 1. ECB President Lagarde spoke recently stating that the European Central Bank is maintaining its current monetary policy stance, which suggests that the ECB is confident in the current state of the economy 2. ECB most recently hiked rates by 50bps. 3. USD continues to face uncertainty and volatility due to the SVB crisis. 4. All eyes will be...

OlympusLab Updated 

Fundamental Backdrop 1. USD continues to face uncertainty and volatility due to the SVB crisis. 2. All eyes will be on the FOMC meeting and the Fed Fund Rate. 3. More dovish on the USD will lead to EURUSD heading higher. 4. Fed might be restricted to hike rates by 50bps due to the instability of the banking industry in the US. Technical Confluences 1. Price...