OlympusLab

OlympusLab

Fundamental Backdrop 1. ECB most recently hiked rates by 50bps. 2. USD continues to face uncertainty and volatility due to the SVB crisis. 3. All eyes will be on the FOMC meeting and the Fed Fund Rate. 4. More dovish on the USD will lead to EURUSD heading higher. Technical Confluences 1. Support level at 1.0519 where price rejected off. 2. Price can...

OlympusLab

Fundamental Backdrop 1. RBA Assist Gov Kent Spoke earlier 2. Key take away points are that - The Reserve Bank of Australia needs to raise interest rates to maintain economic stability. - The current low interest rate environment is not sustainable in the long run. - A gradual increase in rates is necessary to ensure the economy remains healthy. 3. Bullish bias...

OlympusLab Updated 

Fundamental Backdrop 1. Employment Change increased from -10.9k to 64.6k. The result was also better than the forecast of 49.7k 2. Unemployment Rate dropped from 3.7% to 3.5%. The result was also better than the forecast of 3.6% 3. We haven't seen both having good results since 17th November 2022 which saw a roughly 90 pip rise within the day. 4. The bias for AUD...

OlympusLab

Fundamental Backdrop 1. Employment Change increased from -10.9k to 64.6k. The result was also better than the forecast of 49.7k 2. Unemployment Rate dropped from 3.7% to 3.5%. The result was also better than the forecast of 3.6% 3. We haven't seen both having good results since 17th November 2022 which saw a roughly 90 pip rise within the day. 4. The bias for AUD...

OlympusLab

Fundamental Backdrop 1. Inflation in GBP continues to be heightened. 2. A lot of instability in the US due to the Silicon Valley Bank crisis triggering a chain reaction to many other banks involved. Technical Confluences 1. Price has broken the uptrend as seen by the trendline. 2. Price can potentially retrace back to the trendline or the H4 support level at...

OlympusLab

Fundamental Backdrop 1. US economy continues to get hammered with the most recent SVB crisis. 2. Seeing the instability of the fiat currencies result in influx of investments and assets into cryptocurrency and Bitcoin. Technical Confluences 1. Price retested the support level at 23844 before pushing up slightly. 2. Price has most recently broken structure on...

OlympusLab

Fundamental Backdrop 1. China's National Economy Showed a Steady Recovery in the First Two Months which helps to strengthen the AUD 2. Eyes are on the AUD's Employment Change and Unemployment Rate, which are expected to be better than previous results, strengthening the AUD. 3. Watch out for the US PPI News tonight Technical Confluences 1. Price at the 0.67000...

OlympusLab

Fundamental Backdrop 1. Market sentiments has shifted bearish for the USD 2. With the ongoing Silicon Valley Bank crisis, USD has been very volatile and there has been plenty of fear with the USD. 3. This sets the path for further bearish pressure on the USD. Technical Confluences 1. Extremely strong bullish pressure can be noticed on the GOLD chart. 2. Price...

OlympusLab

Fundamental Backdrop 1. Market sentiments has shifted bearish for the USD 2. EURUSD has more room to continue bullish 3. Market is leaning towards a 25bps rate hike but FOMC may still hike by 50bps considering the minimal slow down in CPI yesterday. Technical Confluences 1. Price recently bounced off the H4 support level at 1.06903 and we can potentially see...

OlympusLab

Fundamental Backdrop 1. Employments was good, well above the forecasted or what the market has been pricing in. 3. However, average hourly earnings increased at a decreasing rate to 0.2% from 0.3%. 4. This shows the slowing down of the wage inflation , which is directly correlated with the inflation print and numbers, showing an important signal/sign that...

OlympusLab

Fundamental Backdrop 1. DXY continues to weaken 2. Westpac Consumer Sentiment 8.6% lift in house price expectations (Interest Rates Up) 3. Eyes are on the AUD's Employment Change and Unemployment Rate, which are expected to be better than previous results, strengthening the AUD. 4. Watch out for the US CPI News tonight Technical Confluences 1. Price recently...

OlympusLab

Fundamental Backdrop 1. DXY continues to weaken 2. The Claimant Count Change is expected to be better than previous, strengthening GBP. 3. Also do watch out for the Annual Budget Release on Wednesday which will add significant volatility to the market. Technical Confluences 1. Price bounced off key support level at 1.18700 2. Near-term minor resistance at...

OlympusLab

Fundamental Backdrop 1. DXY continues to weaken 2. Eyes are on the AUD's Employment Change and Unemployment Rate, which are expected to be better than previous results. 3. This will strengthen the AUD. Technical Confluences 1. Price recently bounced off the near-term support at 0.66400 2. Near-term H1 resistance at 0.66900 Idea Looking for price to continue...

OlympusLab

Fundamental Backdrop 1. NFP print came out 311k vs 224k forecasted. 2. Average hourly earnings m/m printed 0.2% compared to 0.3% forecasted. 3. Unemployment rate came out at 3.6% vs 3.4% forecasted. 4. Resulted in heavy bearish USD sentiments due to the wage inflation decreasing and unemployment rate increasing. 5. This shows the effects of rate hikes by the Fed...

OlympusLab

Fundamental Backdrop 1. NFP print came out 311k vs 224k forecasted. 2. Average hourly earnings m/m printed 0.2% compared to 0.3% forecasted. 3. Unemployment rate came out at 3.6% vs 3.4% forecasted. 4. Resulted in heavy bearish USD sentiments due to the wage inflation decreasing and unemployment rate increasing. 5. This shows the effects of rate hikes by the Fed...

OlympusLab

Fundamental Backdrop 1. The Bank of Japan left interest rates unchanged, showing a very big interest rate differential between JPY and USD, weakening the JPY. 2. There are also signs that inflation has sustained above BOJ’s 2% target. Technical Confluences 1. The overall bias for USDJPY on the H4 chart is bullish . To add confluence to our bias, price is above...

OlympusLab

Fundamental Backdrop 1. NFP due today at 930pm GMT +8. 2. NFP print and average earnings will be key to the direction of the USD. 3. Fed Powell's speech that "Fed is prepared to speed up rate rises if warranted by data releases", resulted in strong bullish pressure on DXY and USD across markets. 4. A few US data releases has coincided nicely with Powell's...

OlympusLab

Fundamental Backdrop 1. NFP due today at 930pm GMT +8. 2. NFP print and average earnings will be key to the direction of the USD. Technical Confluences 1. Price is currently retracing and have retraced to the 0.382 on the fibonacci levels. 2. Price can potentially tap into the key support level at 1.04655. 3. Price is still in a bearish trend and I will be...