OlympusLab

OlympusLab

Fundamental Backdrop 1. US Unemployment Claims were better than previous from 192k to 190k. 2. Unemployment dropped which showed that the the labor-market is improving . 3. Overall economic health is improving. Technical Confluences 1. Price bounced off the key H4 support level at 104.500. 2. Near term resistance at 105.100 3. Key Daily resistance at...

OlympusLab

Fundamental Backdrop 1. BOE continues to face higher inflationary pressures which will prompt the BOE to take on a more hawkish stance in the market. 2. BOJ continues to ease, dovish stance is continued. 3. This interest rate differential continues to be a key factor in the appreciation of the GBP over the JPY. Technical Confluences 1. Price is still on a...

OlympusLab

Fundamental Backdrop 1. US consumer confidence printed a decrease and durable goods order coming in bad. 2. However, US ISM Manufacturing PMI was better than previous from 47.4 to 47.7. 3. Mixed sentiments surrounding the dollar. 4. All eyes on FOMC to see the overall US economy. Technical Confluences 1. Price is still on a bearish trend, forming lower lows and...

OlympusLab

Fundamental Backdrop 1. US ISM Manufacturing PMI was better than previous from 47.4 to 47.7, which shows that the economic health is improving. Technical Confluences 1. Price currently resting along a key H4 support level at 104.500. Idea Expecting price to head towards the intermediate resistance level at 104.850 NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE DISCLAIMER The...

OlympusLab

Fundamental Backdrop 1. AUD CPI decreased from previous 8.4% to 7.4%, this shows that inflation is decreasing which could lead the Reserve Bank of Australia to reduce interest rates, weakening the AUD. 2. AUD's GDP q/q decreased from 0.7% to 0.5% which shows that the economic activity and economy health are decreasing. Technical Confluences 1. The overall bias...

OlympusLab

Fundamental Backdrop 1. US economy has proven very resilient in the market. 2. Recent bearish movements stemmed from the drop in consumer confidence and the durable goods printing negative m/m due to Boeing. 3. However, market sentiments revolving around the USD remains bullish amid the stronger than expected economy. Technical Confluences 1. Price has...

OlympusLab

Fundamental Backdrop 1. RBNZ raised the official cash rate (OCR) by 50 bps to 4.75%. Technical Confluences 1. Price is on a bearish trend on the daily timeframe, forming lower lows and highs. 2. Price has broken the daily support level and is currently retracing back to the support turned resistance. 3. On the daily timeframe, it seems that price is retracing...

OlympusLab

Fundamental Backdrop 1. USD more hawkish than AUD, with a potentially higher terminal rate. 2. US economy continues to be very resilient, taking the USD by strength. Technical Confluences 1. The overall bias for AUDUSD on the H4 chart is bearish. 2. Price is on a bearish trend, forming lower lows and lower highs. 3. Price could potentially retrace to the H4...

OlympusLab

Fundamental Backdrop 1. Inflation for the GBP continues to be very high. 2. Pessimistic outlook on the economy for GBP as upcoming GDP m/m is widely forecasted to be printed negative, showing the recessionary phase the economy is in. Technical Confluences 1. The overall bias for GBPUSD is bearish and price can retest the daily support level at 1.186. 2....

OlympusLab

Fundamental Backdrop 1. FX market has been very data driven. 2. Consumer confidence declined again in February, printing 102.9 compared to a forecast 108.5. 3. Along with the durable goods order printing -4.5% m/m compared to forecast, this resulted in heavy bullish momentum coming in on the EURUSD. 4. However, due to the strong economic resilience of the US,...

OlympusLab

Fundamental Backdrop 1. Optimistic reports of manufacturing expansion in China, which is recognized as the largest crude oil importer globally causing a better outlook for the demand. 2. Data showing China's factory activity rose for the first time in seven months in February 3. Output is still down more than 700,000 bpd from September with a high demand still in...

OlympusLab

Technical Confluences 1. The overall bias for XAUUSD on the H4 chart is bearish. To add confluence to our bias, price is below the Ichimoku cloud. 2. However, price has broken above the descending trend-line with price bouncing off strongly the key support at 1810 3. This could possibly mean a shift to bullish market structure. Idea I will be looking for price...

OlympusLab

Fundamental Backdrop 1. CHF's CPI increased to 0.6% from previous -0.2%. 2. This shows that inflation is increasing which might cause the Swiss National Bank to raise interest rates. 3. Overall with the continued strengthening of the DXY, I'm expecting USDCHF to continue bullish. Technical Confluences 1. The overall bias for USDCHF on the H4 chart is...

OlympusLab

Fundamental Backdrop CAD's GDP dropped from 0.1% previous to -0.1%. This indicates that inflation has decreased which can possibly cause the Bank of Canada to lower their interest rates. Overall I'm expecting USDCAD to continue bullish. Technical Confluences 1. The overall bias for USDCAD on the H4 chart is bullish. To add confluence to our bias, price is...

OlympusLab

Fundamental Backdrop BOJ Ueda Spoke on Monday, he didn't announced anything new, and it was widely expected that he was in favor of maintaining the current policy unchanged at -0.10%. Overall I am expecting USDJPY to continue bullish. Technical Confluences 1. The overall bias for USDJPY on the H4 chart is bullish. To add confluence to our bias, price is above...