It looks like a triangle.. but it's not. ES showing impulsive moves lower after an ABC move to the upside petered out.
Those looking for triangle-like continuation of a rally may be holding on for dear life this week. Nonetheless, look for the upside to 5450+ and complete the right side of a diamond structure when futures open.
Complex wave 4 finished today at 50% retracement. The drop to 1.61 extension for wave 5 should give 5090 early next week, with selling intensifying on the Sunday night open.
Validation:
Wave ii is a running flat retracing 38%
Wave iii reaches a max 1.38 extension
A sharp wave iv correction at 62%
Good ii/ iv variability in this count
Wave i peak - wave iv low, avoid crossover (by less than 3 points)
Wave v of 5 extends as required to the 2.62 extension
A valid ending to a major move for SPX
Tonight into cash session we should finish our move lower to the expected 4440 level. However it seems we have one more high in this corrective move. Looking for a final abc structure toward 4569.
Bearish from 4475 to 4440. Then we find buyers for "a" of Z.
Making use of an extended fifth wave, ES completed its (X) upmove with the price action surrounding the Friday jobs report data.
Much of Friday's trade centered around suppression of the VIX, which walked a narrow path, perhaps to its short-term low, at Friday's cash close.
Counts for 1-2, i-ii down should complete early on Sunday after futures enter a...
This weekend I was looking for a C of Y move to be impulsive, and to test 4500. 4510 is the DM R1 level for ES this week, and should serve as our turning point here.
Note charts have plenty of hidden bearish divergence , with 1 -4 hour charts driving to a higher RSI than we had at our previous price peak.
So we are either in iii of 3 up, in a new impulse...
We look to have one more high in this three wave corrective move, with charts pointing to a challenge of 4500 to end (X). AS a of (X) was a leading diagonal structure, c should continue on with the form of an impulse, with b of (X) marked by Friday's post-Powell low.
From there, (w) = (Y) symmetry in shape and time gives a challenge of the 4211 level in mid...
Today's run after the derivatives market closed allowed ES to finish an expanding wedge correction. Look for one final ABC/ three wave move to complete the correction. Alternatively, this structure could be a leading structure in a new impulse lower, and ultimately be completing wave 1 down.
ES finishing a 5 wave expanding diagonal to complete (B) as labelled. An impulse for (C) would follow higher to complete a corrective move from the 2022 low.
This week should see significant upside as we follow (iii) of (3) higher. Already in wave 5 up from the lows, the potential is there for a blowoff ending this month.
