OrcChieftain

OrcChieftain

USDJPY is about to breach below its lowest 'intervention' low. It is likely that there are some waiting orders below. It is my belief that we are only getting there to activate these orders and resume USD trend upwards. Bank of Japan still didn't change its policy. Rest of the world is trying to dampen inflation, whereas Japan only artificially props up Yen, but...

OrcChieftain

I will be searching for a long entry on lower timeframes if we go below yellow line in purple rectangle. This area is a single print. Market went through it without any overlaps. Yellow line is where stop-loss orders might be positioned and raided as we break through. However, it is important to wait for a perfect set-up. Switzerland has lower inflation than US...

OrcChieftain

Fundamentally, mere election of a reasonable prime minister can't possibly fix all GB's problems. I expect further drop in the currency. What I am looking for is a swift drop on 1h (a downclose candle without overlap) that the market later trades into to open a position.

OrcChieftain

Non-farm payroll is critical news that hits the forex markets regularly. Let's see how it affected USDCAD and USDJPY last time in order to be better prepared for the announcement in advance. NFP is usually released on the first Friday after the month ends. The last such time was on 7th October. The surprise is 263K against the 248K forecasted. USDCAD first...

OrcChieftain Updated 

On Monday, Ukraine struck several Russian ships-turned-submarines, Russia wanted to withdraw from its grain corridor agreement. Earlier today, Turkey has re-emphasized that corridor will remain in place. Both news had major impact easily seen in the Wheat futures charts. I think it will calm for a few weeks ahead now. Random unscheduled news are more likely to be...

OrcChieftain Updated 

Yesterday, I was happy to take an hourly setup. Price raided hourly liquidity area (above yellow line) into a single print (purple) with orderblock shortly above it (green). I anticipated the setup and placed my short limits just below the single print (my limit is in blue) and closed it all in several hours in anticipation of FED's rate decision today. What was...

OrcChieftain

There is a sizable single print near 4000 price. I expect it to get filled on Wednesday when FED raises rates and adds additional comments.

OrcChieftain

Japan's PM Kishida claims, he cannot tolerate excessive FX moves by speculation. But given the circumstances of the message, I understand 'speculation' as an excess of supply and lack of demand. Anyway, I will not argue with the correctness of his wording, political or otherwise, and will just compare the similarities. ► The interventions started after breaking...

OrcChieftain

I am looking forward to sell within premium zone above 0.6 retracement.

OrcChieftain

EUR is fundamentally bearish currency due to all sorts of problems. It will turn down at some point. Technically, there are no more clear levels to the upside, only the yellow Break of Structure near 1.556 This means there will likely be a significant spike above where we are now. But I will not enter hastily. I also watch other charts and I would like SP500 to...

OrcChieftain Updated 

EUR is not bullish, it just experienced a temporary pause in the downtrend. 50 EMA is the perfect place to resume downtrend.

OrcChieftain

Yen is in a downtrend but I think the retracement from 140 is likely, perhaps even top. Trigger: → I expect to see a rejection of 140 on an hourly timeframe or strong fakeout. This must be confirmed on 15m timeframe as lower lows and lower highs get created. → If there is a policy shift in Bank of Japan during the trade, I will be willing to hold it for longer.

OrcChieftain

Technicals: After large rally in the beginning of the year followed by similar drop over the past months, Wheat has been consolidating in 750-850 range. From the technical perspective, I am missing a convincing rejection of the lower lows before a rally can take place. However if the fundamentals were strong enough, they would subsidize for such price action. ...

OrcChieftain

Technicals: GBPJPY has been trading far above any pivot on the weekly chart. On 1D, we formed double top earlier this year (yellow highlight) with its second peak giving a birth to the symmetrical triangle. We are near the point where such triangle usually leads to a breakout. I don't there is any technical indication for the direction of the breakout, although...

OrcChieftain Updated 

The picture below highlights major swing bottoms that all occured in July. Years 2020 and 2021 clearly offered a phenomenal buying opportunity for long positions. Further back, in 2019, a major swing bottom has been locked in in August. In 2018, we got minor swing bottom in August as well, but the price came slightly below the level in October. That year, the...

OrcChieftain

I believe in a strong sell-off and bear market continuation. The recent rally was larger than anything in this market and did reach for two liquidity points (yellow). It is also near 200 MA which is considered by many analysts as a key pojnt (grey).

OrcChieftain

I think there is an increased probability that Bitcoin will bounce off 25k and resume downtrend. This is based on Monthly High, previous Swing High, ascending channel and increasing volume every time there are two consecutive big green candle, whereas the second one tends to have higher volume/yet is smaller in size.

OrcChieftain

EURCAD has broken the channel today. I believe this to be closely related to the down close candle in the Oil market and the technical continuation of the drop in the USDOLLAR index (close economy to CAD). However, the EUR's bearish fundament isn't changing. I intend to use this opportunity to open another short from last week's high or higher if we reach there...