Osmanomics

Osmanomics Updated 

I think 7 FED speakers, A lot of tension in the markets, tops mean polarisation, considering reflexivity theory extreme volatility will ensue. A lot of people might think the -0.786 ATH we got before the holidays is the top. I think they are mistaken as seen in the analysis below. There is still legroom for higher, this is a big bet on my part. I have a few...

Osmanomics

Seems like election bull was already priced in, new money got washed. Bonds are making a comeback, cash is a position. Expecting more downturn after a relief pump, coinciding with yields retracement. Yields trending with equity price are usually signs of either economical expansion or economical fears, such as slowdown or recession, during up and downs. The...

Osmanomics

This can be the lower high that dictates the uptrend I have been speculating for so long Yields are going to drive the markets this year.

Osmanomics

See last oil post, Nice pull back before destruction, not much to say

Osmanomics

Overall uptrend still needs a leg to complete its wave. Considering higher lows of around -10%, the recent drop is the 4th point in our Elliot Wave analysis. Last leg is to form the head and shoulders, synonym of long term tops. I think the focus will be towards currencies, with countries focusing on Trumponomics, strengthening currencies for the dollar...

Osmanomics

Can't believe I missed this buy signal on the fib, super high vol buyback. The doomsday retracement is going to be the election cycle bull run. Let's see how this plays out.

Osmanomics

My valuation on a fait XAU futures for a troy ounce of gold. I think with the lasts posts, the reason speaks for itself. The hedging and hoarding of such an asset during volatile times usually is the perfect recipe for a price moon. I don't see anything limiting the rise of commodity if global tensions don't settle. Let us wait and see

Osmanomics

Wow, what a week it has been. SPX down 3.5% and up 2.5% the day after. My thought is this backtrack is going to be the biggest retracement for the drop, just like we saw on bitcoin. APPL seems to have DOJ issues, NVIDIA chip issues in Taiwan... all seems to be lining up for potential lower for longer. My only buy this year will be TSLA. More on that. Goldilocks...

Osmanomics

Although everyone is cutting down production, even SHELL, we are seeing the narrative of higher prices for longer. OPEC wants to cut beginning October 2024 until 25. This might be for a multitude of reasons, which makes it quite unclear what the goal is. After falling demand and easing in production, my narrative is that we might see prices fall instead of rise,...

Osmanomics

As you can see, potential final Elliot wave lower high on daily. Like to see final discounts before potential rate cut cycle. (FED spoke yesterday and seemed bullish for rate cuts during 2025, coinciding with elections and time variable with potential price action picking back up during then)

Osmanomics

love these fibs elliot wave, since bottom, waiting for final pump, might see a retracement on the red fib for target on higher levels (daily fib). Can't wait to see btc discounts. Let's see what we have with big week ahead, FED speakers and spx at potential top

Osmanomics

BTC bull case, Major trendline retest on the daily while in a overall uptrend. Since we have the FOMC meeting that is fundamentally looking at a rate hike, we might see BTC retest previous key levels around 28.1k for a liquidity search. This is the bull case, implying the retest is to aim back at higher prices (37.6k). BTC bear case, Although Blackrock's...

Osmanomics

(adjusted) No 61.8 confirmation, everything is still looking bad.

Osmanomics

Just an idea where equity might be heading with all the turmoil with banks. I think the FED will bail them out and eventually the 3 next meeting won't have any rates rise, cuts if banks and markets bleed, but overall we might not see the bottom, yet. Let's see equity raise with BTC and usd possibly back on it's downtrend.

Osmanomics

Strong earnings are surprising everyone with positive cash flow, the disaster has probably not been felt yet. Rather, fully... A guy in finance told me his teacher said rates takes at least 8 month to be digested by the equity market. Just an idea.

Osmanomics

DXY frenching 200ma, I don't think he's letting go anytime soon. Let's see him retest it with a beautiful potential 61.8 level correspondence. Simple and easy like that, Also concords to Feds meeting previsions... let's see the 50bps

Osmanomics

Yes, Testing 200 ma, liquidity search on top before going back down with fib confirmation. (Might see 0.5 test if first rejection doesn’t hold)

Osmanomics

Lower lows, lower highs. Etherum is going down before it’s big uptrend.