Pashabxl

Pashabxl

This is the big picture of XAUUSD based on a monthly chart and Ichimoku indicators. There isn't yet any sign of a reversal trend on the upside. TO the contrary three of the 4 basic Ichimoku signal are confirming the downside move. The bottom of the Kumo Cloud is behaving as a resistance level. Based on Indicators such as Stoch, there might be a little room on...

Pashabxl

DAX is continuing the correction phase. There may be a little upside move until 9875-9900 because of the situation of the market, although we are not yet in an oversold situation, there may be a little move up before the coreection process continue toward 9775 at first, and later until 9380.This would be a 5% correction From 100XX, which is normal in that period....

Pashabxl

I hate to start by saying, "as foreseen in my previous studies....." So for those who are familiar with my daily studies and forecast, here is a little update. CAC is clearly oversold. Therefore we may see a little upward jump but this should not exceed 4510-4515. My Thought is that we may be at around 4480 before the correction continues. Targets are...

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I know that a lot of people had some question mark in mind when I was making studies with a headline goal of 1.382-1.385 for at least 3 weeks now. People thought that After 1.39XX, Euro would jump at 1.355 and bellow. But as I have told in the past, and I keep the same idea in mind, there are 3 reasons why EUR will make a last try to 1.38XX. 1- Market bought for...

Pashabxl

101.5 played an important role as a support level. It is a strong support. The Pair arrived at that level with in an oversold situation. The previous pattern appears to be a completed double top with a clear neck line and a pull back level. This pattern has been achieved. And from now on, we can think for a clear way up to 102.6

Pashabxl

CAC40 is facing a little correction. It is not a reversal of trend but just a natural correction. Lagging span is crossing the price, Tenkan Kijun twist has been achieved and needs to be confirmed. The twist has been made outside the Kumo cloud which means that the momentum may be relatively sharp on the down side. But on the long run, CAC is still on the...

Pashabxl

I still keep my trading plan which is to enter to the XAUUSD market on the long side of the story at around 1180 or even bellow that level. When XAUUSD is oversold, there is always a little jump upward, but yet, nothing justify to go above 1313, and my personnal reference is 1303. 1313, 1330, and 1350 are solid resistance level. Therefore, you need a big...

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Market was waiting for a signal in order to start a correction phase and this has started. US statistics are not good. GDP's 2Q14 is not good as forseen, and frankly you cannot justify this with the weather problem or the cold. However bare in mind that there is still plenty of cheap money in the market. FEd, ECB, BoJ. Therefore it is still just an only a...

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After all the announcement made by FED, It still keep my trading plans. EUR has passed the first critical level of 1.362. The second critical level is 1.366, and the next one is at 1.372. If these level are achieved, we may be faced with a little correction from 1.372 to 1.3685. And the final try may go up until 1.385. Depending on the situation of the market,...

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USDTRY is entering into a seasonal period where the country will host a lot of tourist. That is why, despite the lowering of the interest rate, TRY may not jump very high above 2.15 unless there is a geopolitical situation against Turkey or a suprise in the Presidential Election. At then end of August and with the end of the touristic season, TRY may start again...

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It is still too early to think that Gold is finaly on an upside trend. There was a jump based on different factors, but nothing yet to conclude to a trend reversal. Gold may go until 1313 or 1330, even a sudden jump to 1350 but at the present situation this is not a sustainable level. The main target remains 1180, 1090- 1060 as I have expressed in my previous...

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MArket was too over confident. But if you keep an ear to CB's managers ie Draghi, Yellen and other, world economy is in a good path, and even if it is not, we will ease the monetary situation and continue to provide liquidity. But because of the correction the market is facing, VIX may move upside in order to hedge the short position on Indexes. On on purely...

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With cheap money on the market, a possible European QE, low interest rate, CAC has still a good perspective. Nevertheless, the index has finaly entered to a correction phase....

Pashabxl

We do have 2 datas in hand. 1-FED will not review its interest rate on the upside before 1Q15. 2-BoJ is planning to reach it's inflation Target. Japan will release important figure this week that may affect the pair. therefore one should be very caution before entering the market. Having said that, on a long term basis, BoJ and FED are planning to increase...

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Euro is already dancing for the summer. But the dance is not the Samba but rather the lambada for those who may remember the song and the music. It is a little up, little down but rather side way dance, puzzled one to each other.... At a near future, it doesn't look yet as being able to move to one or the other direction. I keep my trading plan since 1.3535 to see...

Pashabxl

Well, the normal adage of a normal market trade says " sell in May come back in September." For those who are short since May it may have been a catastrophe. Having said that, The market is facing a normal and regular correction. This correction may last until 9400 or 9200. Bellow that level, it may very much slip bellow 8950. Furthermore, the money is still...

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Well, there is no harm to say the truth. If World economy was so good and promessing, ECB would lower its interest rate under 0, nor FED would have kept a low level interest rate. We should have been in a situatio with at least a 2% inflation and same thing for the growth rate. Which is not the case. But the market bought the idea and the policy of cheap money and...

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Since there is no change in FED's policy, ie no review or postponing of the QE end date, in other word, FEd is keeping the tapering schedule, interest rate will not rise one to a sudden, at least not before 1Q15, we can expect 101.5 to remain an important support level and 103.5 an important resistance level. If FEd increase its interest rate, we may se a move...