Pashabxl

Pashabxl

When markets are closed, we do have more time in order to analysis the long trend of commodities and the shape of the market. On a big picture, if we do focus on the forest and not the trees, we can clearly see the confirmation of the reversal trend since Feb2014, and the range of gold. My primary objective remain to see gold moving toward 1180 despite some...

Pashabxl

Well, the basic NASDAQ is what it is. But on a bigger picture and scale, NAsdaq 100 Above 20 day Average is a very good indicator of the trend. Bare in mind that the growth rate of US was -1% for 1Q2014... And this despite a low USD, favorable for export, number of jobless decreased, Shell-gas production increased....... Therefore, the trend is really worrying...

Pashabxl

USDJPY is floating in a large band between 103,5 and 101 since JAnuary 2014. It was an easy trading. Around 103 you short and at around 101 you go long. After BoJ announcement of the tightening of the monetary policy, and the tappering, the balance and the swing would have been almost the same with a rising trend in favor of USD. But there is a new situation...

Pashabxl

For a few weeks I was writting about the Trend of EUR and making some daily updates sinceApril on twitter and since I am a member of tradingview. Therefore to recall, since Early April , The first part of my trading plan was to enter a long on EURUSD from 1.37until 1.40. We didn't arrive exactly to 1.40 but 1.3990XXX And then, the move down with a...

Pashabxl

We may be on the eve of a double top, but we do need confirmation. The candles on the next coming days may confirm or not but we need to observe them. We are at an oversold level, and if there is a fall in the market for the next two days, we may assume that we are at the formation of a double top. Which then means that the neck line is at 3450, and perfectly fit...

Pashabxl

We came at the very limit of what CAC40 can reach. Above 4506, there is no technical, macro economics, micro economic or market justification. Having said that, of course, at the end of the day, it is the difference of weight between buyers and sellers. So far, it appears that buyers are at majority in the market. However, if Bears pull the trigger, it's going...

Pashabxl

As I have said many time, as this can been read in my previous charts and analysis, Gold is moving toward 1180. At the present moment, the GOLD is at an oversold situation. Therefore, it may face a little correction up TOWARD 1280 and baring in mind the quantitative aspect of market playet, it may try to hit 1295+ but not further. Therefore for STUNT trader,...

Pashabxl

Having carefully watched the INDEX on the market, it is also very wise to compare with the volatility index in order to secure the future of the trend. As one would see on the chart, VIX is at an oversold level, showing an overconfidence of the market. This level is not sustainable at all, and no short or medium term news can confirm this overconfidence....

Pashabxl

I though the effect of QE3 since September 12 would push NASDAQ to 3600. And this is still my benchmark. A Hundred + miscalculation for that long period is "possible". however, we are at the edge of the highest high. On that FIBO projection, everything is being said. Unless there is a move towards a European QE, the target remain clear.

Pashabxl

SPX is clearly very much above the 1900 level at an overbought situation. With the end of QE3, market should correct the index toward 1780.

Pashabxl

As forseen, ECB announced that a European QE is not yet on the agenda of the European Central Bank. Frankfurt is more concerned about their inflation target and they may soon move with a step regarding the interest rate. There is nothing to fuel the market . So a correction may be forseen and seems very realistic. Bellow 4475, the market would go towards 4350 and bellow.

Pashabxl

ECB President said that there was no European QE at the horizon. Draghi is more worried about the inflation target of ECB and the terms to achieve it for the time being. If EU economy was as good as one could read in the media, then there would have been a natural inflation of 1.5 % as an average of the Eurozone, and ECB would have had to react by increasing the...

Pashabxl

Back to reality. QE3 effect is fading. No European QE yet. So the momentum is coming to an end. 16606 was and still is my benchmark and my top level. Therefore, based on indicators+ political environment, DOWI may progressively and smoothly cool down towards 16400 and 16000 as a first headline goal. Then after a technical correction at 16200, the second move may...

Pashabxl

No suprise with regard GOLD. The target remain 1180 and bellow. When there is a stabilization at that level, we can think about a long terme trading plan. But at the present the trend is consolidation with some technical correction from time to time upward, but nothing to change the general trend.

Pashabxl

With the clear statement of ECB President Dragji stipulating that ECB was carring about negative inflation and was seeking to reach its objective of 2% of inflation, June 4th may the date were ECB could announce a 0% rate policy or even a -0.25% which would mean decreasing by 0.50 base point the interest rate. Market have understood and bought the idea....

Pashabxl

Well the chart is very clear, and the mechanical progress of SP500 has proven itself for the last 4 years. Therefore before the end of the tappering process, we may very much be faced with such a scenario. To be confirmed of course.

Pashabxl

The round has been won by those who thought that ECB will intervene, and mechanically EUR loose ground against USD. ECB either intervene next June 4th by lowering interest rate or announcing a QE and EUR will continue to loose ground against USD and the phenomena would face an impetus when FED raised its interest rate, or if it keep its schedule with regard...

Pashabxl

Baring in mind the outcome of EP elections where the present government party PS became only at the third after the Franch extreme right FN and the main opposition party UMP, will the CAC40survive the political fight or not?