Pashabxl

Pashabxl

The Greek tension and the futur about its debt will give the short term direction of Gold. If the Greek Debt is being under pressure because no solution is found at Euro level, there precious metal may go up qukcly. On the other hand, if we do progress towards a solution, the precious metal may resume its "natural" path which is down the road towards 1180 and then...

Pashabxl

Well, on the very big picture, there is no change in the trading policy of XAUUSD. The general trend is still on the downside. However, there is a new situation in the market. The Greek Stress, and the "disappointing" US Datas. Well Disappoiting US data is good for FED, because FED has no room of manoeuvre in order to play with the exchange rate against EUR....

Pashabxl

Here is the big picture of XAUUSD. A little state of play. The big trend is on the down side of the story until ECB decide to put an end to its QE.

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That is all the question we need to further wait and study

Pashabxl

XAUUSd had a sudden surge because of US employment data that were bellow expectations. However the news came during EU Eastern Holidays and is was due to the surge of EUR against USD. However, bare in mind ECB's money policy and the devaluation policy of EUR against USD. A very strong EUR is not in the interest of ECB as well as a strong USD is not good for USA....

Pashabxl

A sudden NFP data that was not in line with expectation push EUR on the upside with a sudden and unexpected move. But this is economy you cannot forecast everything. Sadly it is at a time of Eastern where EU official institutions are on holiday although markets are open. The sudden rise of EUR is too expensive for ECB and its stratgy. Therefore one may wait for...

Pashabxl

Since it is Eastern, believe me it is not a joke? Just the reaction of the market concerning US NFP; in other words, with a bad NFP at least bellow the forecast, the market thinks that FED will not increase its interest rate ........ Now let's wait the reaction of ECB and the EURO side of the story

Pashabxl

The French index is on a little rising Wedge with a potential correction bellow 5067 until 5041 or 5020. Bellow 4999, it is another situation but the Kumo cloud make no further annoucement but a little downside correction. Bare in mind that ECB will put another 60 Bio€on the table in the framework of QE. So this will have an impact on the market.

Pashabxl

The German index is in a little corection phase, the index was a little bit tensed because of the negociation concerning Greece. However, ECB will put on the table the second phase of QE with a fresh 60Bio€ Although there are sign of little correction, the overall picture is rather good.

Pashabxl

SPX Aabove 2090 would mean that there will be no break on the downside. To the contrary, if the index stays in the triangle, then the possibility to break the wedge increase. Therefore the break will happen with 2002 as an initial target. On macro economic terms, bare in mind that Positive US Economic data would increase the chance of FED to increase by 0,25...

Pashabxl

If the pattern is a double top, then you have the neck line, and the target written and obvious. Although if this is a double top, the target may be 1168 before being 1155. The RSI is in a rising Wedge pattern as well. So let's wait and SEE. EURUSD situation and the power of the pair may be very decisive. Please keep in mind the Geopolitical agenda that may...

Pashabxl

Just an update from the day. The price as expected is moving up and down inside the triangle. The Lagging span position and direction is interesting. The price couldn't cross the upside trend line. We are almost in a Rising wedge pattern. Same thing is valid for the RSI . To be watched. The US Senate decision on Iran or Statement about the agreement between E3+3 ...

Pashabxl

On the big picture, it is obvious that GOLD could not cross the 1212 resistance level. 4Hours ago, the precious metal was very much hesitating from the up side to the down side and finally sellers took the hand and att he present time, GOLD is going back towards 1180. Having said that, XAUUSD is very much sensitive about the shape and the trend of EURUSD pair....

Pashabxl

Well, in my previous analysis one may seen the pattern I've drawn and this pattern is a perfect match with what is happening now. Therefore we may wait for the break. the downside correction may go until 2002.

Pashabxl

If there is a double top, then, the next steps are very well known.

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The futur is not bright

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This is a pure Chartist analysis. There is no sign of reversal, but GOLD couldn't cross the initial target i.e 1205. If Eur is being reinforced against USD, this could mechanicaly help XAUUSD to cross 1205 towards 1212 but on a 1H chart, it looks as if there was a "fatigue" among the buyers. Let's wait and see

Pashabxl

The Pair is making an upside correction, hense this is not a change in the big picture, however, unil ECB releases another 60Bio€, the pair will make its upside with 1.09050 as a target. Then the pair may go down again to its initial trend.