PatientContrarian

PatientContrarian

A long-term cup & handle pattern has formed in Nintendo (I have been buying during the "handle" formation). It's not a perfect setup as the top of the "handle" is higher than the high near the end of 2007, although that's in the chart adjusted for dividends. It looks a lot more clear on the chart that's not adjusted for dividends (I will post an update with...

PatientContrarian Updated 

Nike is getting close to the apex of a 4-year triangle pattern (where price inevitably breaks one way or the other). For now, I'm just watching for a certain setup to potentially trade on. If it breaks down out of the triangle (which it is currently threatening), it may find support around the 200-mo. EMA, which would be a better price to start a position. That...

PatientContrarian Updated 

Waiting for a monthly close above the 8-year downtrend line to get in. The chart is pretty messy but many other signals are converging around that area (200-month EMA, 50-month EMA, .382 Fib). Price had a false breakout early in the downtrend based on the trendline I drew but I drew it where it is because it had many hits along this line. If price breaks out...

PatientContrarian Updated 

Gold is showing a classic long-term cup and handle period. Spent about 7 years in the "cup" (long shakeout period from the bubble that had formed after the last financial crisis followed by an eventual rally to previous all-time high). It has spent over 2 years now in the "handle" (period of consolidation giving the appearance that price can't break through the...

PatientContrarian Updated 

Not buying today despite the discount because a gradual downtrend has formed. As long as that pattern holds, it will continue to make lower highs and lower lows over time (doesn't sound fun). That said, if it can eventually break out of the downtrend (which is currently running next to the 50-week EMA), I would consider starting a position (even though it would...

PatientContrarian Updated 

Should find support right around here. If not, I'll probably average down but I'll update this idea if/when that happens. Would consider selling some shares (maybe half of my position) around the 200-mo. EMA, which is also currently close to the top of the channel. Plan on buying those shares back near the bottom of the channel but want to keep some shares...

PatientContrarian Updated 

Cisco is having trouble getting past the high from the tech bubble at the turn of the century. Keeping an eye on this chart pattern that has formed as it consolidates (may take several more years to play out). I won't short if it breaks down, but I'm watching for a potential upward breakout to trade on (looking for a decisive monthly close above the green tend...

PatientContrarian Updated 

Here is another stock potentially breaking out of a long-term downtrend/basing pattern. I tried to put the trend line where there were the most hits so that it would be more accurate, but that resulted in some false breakouts in the past and, as a result, this could prove to be a false breakout or that the trend line isn't even accurate and there was no breakout....

PatientContrarian Updated 

I'm not going to call if the bottom is in or "not so fast" but just want to point out that we may only be halfway through a significant long-term downturn. It's concerning to me that RSI has broken significantly below 50 for the first time since the market recovered from the lows in early 2009. It's also concerning that price looks like it wants to retest the...

PatientContrarian Updated 

I originally bought this stock early in 2019 thinking it was breaking out of the same pattern I'm illustrating now so I could be wrong again (I'm not buying more here), but I held through that initial shakeout and continue to hold and am encouraged by the recent price action in this stock. (I hold a small position in this stock - only 85 shares in my Roth IRA). ...

PatientContrarian Updated 

Potential left shoulder lasted almost 2 years, potential head took about 6 months to complete, potential right shoulder has only put a few months of consolidation in so far. It looks like the company has been buying back stock pretty aggressively over the past nearly 2 years (I can't see any further than that since I don't subscribe to TradingView yet) as total...

PatientContrarian Updated 

Waiting for breakout on a monthly closing basis of SPX to establish a position in this stock which I think is undervalued and pays a nice dividend. However, if SPX can't make a new all-time high on a monthly closing basis then I think the stock market in general will have a pullback into the presidential election where I could maybe get in this stock at a little...

PatientContrarian Updated 

waiting for a monthly close above the descending trend line, which is just above the top of the regression trend, stop loss would potentially be pretty tight - a monthly close back below the trend line, the monthly close entry and stop are riskier because price could blast through the trend line pretty significantly in a month's time but I feel like the monthly...

PatientContrarian Updated 

This is a very short term pattern so not very reliable, but the past couple of months have provided a nice shakeout I originally referenced, although I was a week early on the call. I'm much more comfortable getting in now that price action has cooled off a bit; however, if price can't make a daily close outside the regression trend then maybe it will retest the...

PatientContrarian Updated 

Bearish short-term - even a mild shakeout would do wonders with how closely a lot of people are watching this thing.. maybe just to around $25 would be enough, but $20 would sent most of them packing and then they'll get back in on the whipsaws providing the fuel to eventual rise (which won't be in a straight line like all these clowns are talking about).

PatientContrarian

I originally bought a small position in this stock around $7.50 as price was breaking out of a short consolidation pattern in early 2018. Price had previously made quick tops around that level in late 2010 and late 2015, so I thought the consolidation was encouraging and price broke out nicely from that level. I failed to sell however, thinking there was more in...

PatientContrarian

Time will tell but it appears an almost 20-year downtrend/basing period has been broken. The breakout occurred with significant volume which makes it more likely to be genuine. Of course an initial shakeout/head fake could follow (and I may not have the trend line exactly right, tried to place it where there were the most hits, but a few times that resulted in...