Phil_Blue_Line

Phil_Blue_Line

After a week of holiday trading volume, weakness in the U.S. Dollar continued after deteriorating economic data opened the door for the Fed's first interest rate cut in 2024. As of this writing, the first interest rate cut has a 23% chance in March 2024 and has pressured 10-year Treasury yields from a cycle high of 5.05% on October 23rd down to the November low of...

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The tides have turned this week for Precious Metals after a stunning collapse in CPI, followed by a series of weaker economic data points. Fed fund futures are questioning the Federal Reserve's hard stance. Currently, the latest CME FedWatch tool indicates a 2% chance for the first interest rate cut in January, followed by a 35% chance in March and a 65% chance in...

Phil_Blue_Line

If you read last week's post, "Is the Top in on Gold?," you will know I was preparing for a correction, which played out perfectly. Gold futures could work their way lower from here, given the amount of premium pumped into the market from the October 6th lows until the October 27th highs (+ $196.20). The Hezbollah leader already discredited widespread escalation...

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After punching through $2000/oz for the first time since July, Gold and Silver have found themselves in a peculiar position, suddenly competing with the launch of a Bitcoin ETF. Perhaps the $175/oz rally over the past three weeks left investors "itching" to find the next "quick buck." While Bitcoin has proven a viable asset class, retail investors and Central...

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Technical Momentum Strengthens Crude Oil futures have been range-bound since the start of August, trapped between $85 on the upside and $75 on the downside. The technical perspective shows momentum studies rising from oversold territories, with the 8-day moving average trending just above the 34-day. DMI + crossed back above DMI -, indicating that the bull market...

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Gold futures have risen since mid-August, with $1900 on the downside and $1975 on the upside. The technical perspective shows momentum studies rising to overbought territories, indicating this may be the beginning of the next bull market. DMI + crossed back above DMI - and the 8-day moving average looks set to recapture the 34-day moving average. Weaker Economic...

Phil_Blue_Line

August is officially in the books, and other than Platinum rising $100 from $885 to $985, there was little to get excited about. Precious Metals were flat, where hot economic data and a hawkish Federal Reserve supported the U.S. Dollar and Treasury Yields, further pressuring prices. As the month went on, softer prints from Consumer Confidence, ADP, GDP, and Jolts...

Phil_Blue_Line

Crude Oil futures have been range-bound since the start of August, trapped between $85 on the upside and $75 on the downside. The technical perspective shows momentum studies rising from oversold territories, with the 8-day moving average trending just above the 34-day. DMI + crossed back above DMI -, indicating that the bull market we have seen since July may...

Phil_Blue_Line

While the concerns of a Global Recession are not entirely out of the question, the supportive economic activity we have seen in the U.S. should indicate that the Fed may be closer to achieving its soft landing goals. Construction and housing remain robust where mined resources such as copper are in peak demand. Asia and India have also seen a pick-up in activity...

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It was an impressive week for commodities across the board, with everything from Precious Metals and Energies to Agricultural markets grabbing headlines. Inflation remains worrysome During the Pro-Farmer Crop tour, excessive heat across the Mid-West triggered volatility as farmers asked themselves, "How much heat can this crop handle?" You may ask yourself...

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I know it's mid-August, but it indeed feels like Ground Hog Day with Precious Metals trapped on a merry-go-round of negativity where stronger economic data in the U.S. reaffirms the Fed's "higher for longer" theme that strengthens the U.S. Dollar and pushes yields higher. Then in the overnight sessions, we get a series of weak Asian data where calls for China to...

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It was another challenging week for Precious Metals, with Gold futures trading back near one-month lows. At the same time, it is hard to believe that with a downtick in headline inflation data and an uptick in initial claims, Gold cannot sustain a rally. Realistically Thursday's data print should have marked the "bottom," and August's three-week seasonal bull...

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Gold futures remain under pressure, led by better-than-expected employment data and a lack of follow-through on a U.S. credit rating downgrade. If you remember, in 2011, the economy was still struggling to find its footing after the fallout from the financial crisis. Unemployment was hoovering above 8%, GDP was trending below normal levels, and credit spreads...