The only signal that makes me lean more toward a fakeout rather than a clean pullback is the distance between the 100 and 200 moving averages and the current price.
At the moment, price is struggling around the 50 MA, and there’s a clear gap between it and the longer-term averages.
We need to give the market some time and see which direction gains confirmation....
Update on Previous Analysis
Since there are no major economic events scheduled for today, we expect lower volatility and a relatively calmer market, unless any unexpected news hits the wires.
Looking at the chart, price is still moving within a descending channel, and it's currently reacting around a key zone — an area of previous price congestion that also...
We have a large descending channel, which appears to be forming a smaller ascending channel as part of a correction.
Once the correction is confirmed and completed, it could provide a good opportunity for a short position.
However, if the lower boundary isn't broken and the price moves higher, we’ll hold off and wait for a new structure to form.
Oil has been stuck in a prolonged range, and a breakout in either direction is becoming increasingly likely.
The overall trend remains bullish, as there’s been no confirmed trend reversal yet.
📌 Key Scenarios:
A break to the upside would signal continuation of the bullish trend.
A break below the range could confirm a potential trend reversal.
📈📉 To avoid...
If the euro is indeed set to weaken — as we anticipate based on the current signs of trend exhaustion — this could be a solid trigger for a short position.
However, if the breakout fails to confirm, it may turn out to be a fakeout, potentially leading to a bullish reversal instead
Gold has been stuck in a range for about 92 days, and recently, price action within the range has become increasingly compressed.
This tightening suggests that a breakout in either direction could lead to the beginning of a new long-term trend.
Trump came out with a fake piece of news to create some volatility for himself.
But the trend went back to its original path, and in my opinion, the downtrend will likely continue.
