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It seems quite probable that $BTC is building a new growth channel as it approaches the third halving event next year. The R/S scaffolding seems to have been put in place since the lows of a few months ago. We tried to break back into the previous channel, and got rejected. This isn't a case of gloom, but actually rather healthy. Everyone is focused on scarcity of...

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So, instead of 50, 100, 200, try 34, 89, 144 as your SMA targets. There's a lot of insight for the long-term investor here. See if you can spot them in this chart.

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The point of this chart idea is to assess whether the bull-cycle parabolas resume from a tangent taken off the long-term trend. The volume profile seems to be the story here, and the second week of November is the test for whether this story holds water. Let's see.

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This is just a study. I am imagining the bear market recovery as a series of adjustments with flatter linear trend lines. The path through the bear market is therefore the convex hull of these periodic adjustments.

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The introduction of institutional investing through the futures market has created a new paradigm for the growth path in bitcoin's prices. The channel in green shows the likely long-term trajectory. Now that there is a little more volume in trading, perhaps there is a little more confidence that we revert to this channel.

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Is there a longer-term parabolic trend in bitcoin? If so, we ought to be able to see some evidence for a series of tangents that can inform the construction of an concave-upwards parabola. This chart uses the regression lines to construct those tangents, and incorporates the recent price correction by way of a tangent line that serves to flatten the implied parabola.