PrimeTrading

PrimeTrading Updated 

A fairly easy and straightforwarded trade: Just short the GBPAUD on rallies as the RBA will (very likely) still hike rates in 2024, where as the UK is done with rate hikes and will cut much faster than the market expects right now. UK: - CPI will fall faster than the BOE expects it right now. - Especially services inflation will has a big downside surprise risk...

PrimeTrading Updated 

First things first: 📊🔮My crystal ball tells me: EUR CPI (inflation data) today will be lower than consensus expected. -> This will weigh on the euro in the long term 🔮An old saying goes: "The crystal ball spoke and the ECB obeyed." A look back. 🔮 - As predicted in July last year, inflation in the eurozone fell far faster than the market and the ECB in...

PrimeTrading Updated 

First things first: 📊🔮My crystal ball tells me the US PCE inflation data today will be weaker on a monthly basis than the consensus expects it. -> This will lead to a (temporary) weakness in the USD ✅️ ...And thus a new hope for the EURO?... Once upon a time in a FX galaxy far, far away... The EUR has been rising against the USD for around 2 weeks and new...

PrimeTrading Updated 

Round 2, Fight! Result Round 1 see here: After my first EURCAD short hit the target and the EURCAD made a nice retracement to the upper edge of the range, I basically enter the same trade again: I split the trade into 2 positions: I short the EURCAD once here directly and at the same time place a limit order at the current range high of 1.51000. I place...

PrimeTrading Updated 

The ECB is (once again) on the wrong track: It is stubbornly sticking to its hawkish view and justifying this with the fact that inflation in the euro area will remain stubbornly "sticky" and will probably not reach the target range of 2% until 2025. The ECB is wrong (once again), as inflation will hover around 3% as early as December 2023 and reach the 2% target...

PrimeTrading Updated 

AUD perspective: Positive: - The Australian economy is weakening, BUT compared to the European "experts" it is holding up quite well (very difficult I know) -> there is no sign of a recession in Australia so far, quite the opposite of the Eurozone, I had already predicted the inevitable recession in my EURCAD trade idea here - Retail sales came in stronger...

PrimeTrading Updated 

First things first: The German Inflation today will come lower (3.7 or 3.8) than the consensus forecasts (4.0) -> Great for my EUR Short

PrimeTrading Updated 

First things first: Do you think one has to work for one or two circuses before he can start as a member of the ECB? Anyway as surprised as the ECB may be about the total weakness of the euro economy ( no one could have foreseen it! ) as surprised they will probably be today when the GDP of the eurozone will disappoint the consensus forecast as well as the ECB...

PrimeTrading Updated 

If one would have checked the recent flightlogs of the GBP performance he might have been astounded what he would discover: GBP emerges from the first trading week of the year as the strongest currency and the signs look great for a further rally of the pound: 🟢GBP Positive:🟢 - 🟢 The PMIs in the UK have recently surprised on the upside and so there is light...

PrimeTrading Updated 

In the duel of the Nordic nations between the strong Norwegian Ragnar (NOK) and the fierce Swedish Earl (SEK), only one can survive. I am betting my gold coins on the Norwegian krone for the following reasons: - NOKSEK is fundamentally undervalued -> fundamentally the pair should rather be trading at 1.04 - 1.05 - Norges Bank surprised EVERYONE...

PrimeTrading Updated 

Quick question: Which Swiss export sector is the only one that has so far kept its head above water relatively well and did not have to report a decline in sales in the second quarter of 2023? Write your answer in the comments! (No cheating please!;) That the Swiss economy runs like a (Swiss) clockwork was once upon a time. As predicted in my CADCHF trade idea,...

PrimeTrading Updated 

As a wise trader once said: "Trading is a simple game. What makes it so complicated is the presence of the SNB." In short and simple terms: I'm buying the AUD against the CHF for a long-term swing trade. The reasons for this are short and sweet: - As predicted back in February, Swiss inflation fell below 2% in July. - As predicted, Swiss inflation fell much...

PrimeTrading Updated 

I would like to quote a wise (and profitable) trader at this point: "Trading is a simple game. What makes it so complicated is the presence of the SNB." Put simply: I'm buying the CAD against CHF for a long-term swing trade. The reasons for this are short and sweet: - As predicted back in February, Swiss inflation fell below 2% in July. - As predicted,...

PrimeTrading Updated 

Over the past two years, the Norwegian krone has undoubtedly been one of the big losers in the FX market. Not only has it embarrassingly been constantly beaten up even against the EUR and traded at an all-time low, no, since November 2022 it has bottomed vs. ALL G10 currencies. This was hardly surprising as almost all fundamental factors spoke against the NOK....

PrimeTrading Updated 

🟢 I'm going long GBPCHF here at 1.07. 🟢 There were times when the GREAT British Pound was more true to its name than in these stormy weeks. GBP negative: The pound has taken a few knocks in these weeks: ➡️- GDP was recently much weaker (-0.3) than expected (0.0) ➡️- At 0.4, industrial production also surprised negatively in relation to expectations ➡️-...

PrimeTrading Updated 

What better way to start the new year than with a EURCHF long? I am open to suggestions. EUR view: ➡️ Inflation in the eurozone will rise slightly in early 2023 and climb towards the 3% mark🟢 ➡️ In addition, however, it will fall more sharply in the following months than the ECB currently expects, forcing the ECB to cut interest rates earlier than planned🟢 ...

PrimeTrading Updated 

In addition to my longer-term swing trade (if not already a position trade) in the form of a USDCHF long with a profit target of +760 pips, seen here I am also entering a "shorter-term" USDCHF long trade here at 0.83600, with a target of 0.87100. Thus a good +340 pips would be possible here. The probability that the weakness of the USDCHF will also come to...

PrimeTrading Updated 

I go long the USD vs CHF here from 0.843. I give the trade a high probability of 80% to be a winner, lets see! Once upon a time in an FX universe far, far away... The (supposedly) evil US(D) empire was pushed to the brink of defeat by the CHF rebellion, but "something" suddenly happened... ...life stirred into the USD again and it was sent back to fulfil its...