Fundamentally, Aussie is a buy since the Aussie Central Bank remains steadfast in keeping rates higher for longer. But we do see a clear downtrend formed on the 4-hour chart with lower highs and lower lows. With a plethora of central bank releases next week, as well as Aussie employment change release on Wednesday, this pair can present some volatility and good...
Continuing the descent, CPI did not change rate viewpoints at least for the sensible 25bps cut. These are the setups you take. Bounce tight key fib level AND 50 MA. Holding for 150 PIPS target. Check out my previous USDJPY short analysis for target on longer range horizon.
No surprises from CPI this morning. EUR has had a few days of selling pressure going into today’s session and CPI didn’t help Bulls. I’m not buying anymore EURUSD until the 50MA on the daily. However, I do still believe bulls are driving the ship and long range trend is of course long.
It is clear the Fed will cut later this month. This creates clear divergence from BOJ and I will be selling spikes all the way down to green line. Be careful and trade small as this is a volatile pair as any yen pairs are.
With the US ADP numbers this morning kind of disappointing, and with NFP tomorrow, markets are not “all-in” anywhere really. I see a decent scalping opportunity as EURUSD shows a strong hourly sell bar. I am looking for EURUSD to complete the drop to the 50MA HRLY (also the 15min 200MA). This is a scalp and my stop sits 5 pips above previous hourly bar (red dotted line).
Interesting pair to watch with major Non Farm Payrolls coming up Friday. A strong beat above estimates could send pair higher, passed previous failure at 20.22 level. Daily channel favors bulls however I expect a tough push higher unless economic data supports USD strength. Bearish for now with light shorts.
The pair nearing support levels indicated by yellow ovals. Stochastics indicating overselling. Overall daily trend still bullish. Hawkish AU central bank rhetoric amid relative NZD dovishness means the pair can go higher - waiting for CPI report and/or bounce of key support.
While the pair reversing off the .786 FIB, Canada retail sales this morning also came in strong. I took a short in the pair with short term target at green line.
This week the BOJ said it will prolong its hiking of rates and the yen fell, accordingly. Also, USD has shown strength following yesterday’s economic releases and I’ve been waiting for a retrace to get in long USDJPY. Took a small position at 148 with a target around 153. Time horizon about a week.