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PrometheusCHT
About me Prometheus Macro PM. A multidisciplinary behavioural approach to global macro trading. Focusing on currencies, commodities, rates, L/S single stocks and vol.
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PM @ Prometheus Macro | avid: trader, investor, secular humanist, swimmer, lifter, rugby supremacist. Blasphemer. Quant. MAppFin. BLOG: www.reflexivemacro.com
Markets Allocation
38 % commodities 33 % forex 7 % stocks 23 % other
Top Mentioned Symbols
HG1! 15% | 22 GC1! 9% | 13 GBPUSD 5% | 8 USDJPY 5% | 8
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10y 10yearnote aapl apple apps aud audnzd audnzdlong audsgd audusd aussie aussiedollar aussiesing backwardation batpattern beyondta bhp bottoms breakout brent britishamericantobacco britishpound cable calls cat caterpiller chartpattern chf chfjpy civ cix cl1 cl1! cnh contango copper coppercurve coppergoldratio coppergoldratious10y copperpositioning coppershort coppervolatility corn cornfutures correlation crude crudeoil crudevol crudevolatility currencies currency curve dispersion distribution dollar dollarindex dollarkiwi dollaryen dollayryen dxy eem eemhg1 eemshort eemspy eemspyratio em emergingmarket emergingmarkets equity eu eubreakup eur eurgbp eurgbpshort eurnok eurnokshort euro europe europeanunion eurusd fmg fmgvol forex fundamental fundamentaldata fv1! fx gb10y gbp gbpjpy gbpusd gbpusdanalysis gbpusdlong gbpusdpositioning gc1 gc1! gilts gld gold goldcopperratio goldvol goldvolatility goldvs2y goldvs5y goldvsrates growth growthvisvalue gvx gvz headandshoulders hg1 hg1! historicalspread hsi indicator intermarket intermarketanalysis iphone iphones ironore jjc jpy kiwi kiwidollar longcorn longsoybeanoil longzc1! macd metals mexicanpeso mxn natgas natty naturalgas netnoncommercialpositioning ng1! ng_f non-commerciallength nzd nzdusd nzdusdshort oil options overlay ovx paperweights pennant peso petrocks pl1 pl1! platinum platinumlong positioning pound poundsterling precious preciousmetals puts ratehike rateofchange rates regression-trend-channel rio seasonality sentiment sentimentindex sgd shinythings short shortaussie shortcopper shorteur shorteurusd shortfmg shortgold shortkiwi shortnzd shortpl1! shortplatinum shortsgdinr shortsilver si1 si1! si_f silver silvervol silvervolatility singaporedollar skew skewness skewvixratio softcommodities softs soybeanoil sp1 sp1! sp500index spread spx spx500 sterling sterlingyen stocks swissfranc swissfrancyen swissie swissieyenn taiwan technical technicals tnotes treasuries trendanalysis trendline trendlinebreak trendlineconfluence twd ty1 ty1! ung us05y us10y us5y30y usd usdcad usdcnh usdcny usdinr usdjpy usdjpycover usdjpylong usdjpyshort usdmxn usdmxnlong usdnokshort usdollar usdtwd value variance vi1! vi1!-vi2! vix volatility vvix vvixvix vxx wheat xau xauusd yen yourmamma zc zc1 zc1! zc_f zw zw1! zw_f Less Tags Show All Tags
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DXY Looking Bullish
DXY
, DLong
DXY: DXY Looking Bullish

The dollar is looking rather bullish against most currency pairs.

USDNOK Going the way of EURNOK?
USDNOK
, DShort
USDNOK: USDNOK Going the way of EURNOK?

It seems NOK & MXN are the only (obvious) currencies worth owning against the USD here.

NZDUSD to Retrace?
NZDUSD
, DShort
NZDUSD: NZDUSD to Retrace?

The Kiwidollar looks to be breaking trend support, if wider dollar advances confirm; it's reasonable to expect it will retrace the past 12 months' advance.

USDCAD Setting UP!?!
USDCAD
, DLong
USDCAD: USDCAD Setting UP!?!

Bullish dollar moves occurring across the board.

GBPUSD Long
GBPUSD
, D
GBPUSD: GBPUSD Long

Devils advocate trade, accumulating Sterling at the lows.

USDJPY Breaking out!
USDJPY
, DLong
USDJPY: USDJPY Breaking out!

Typically dollaryen launches from technical patterns.

FMG vs Iron Ore (Normalised)
ITI1!
, DShort
ITI1!: FMG vs Iron Ore (Normalised)

FMG has rapidly outpaced Iron Ore, in my opinion unjustifiably so as China's credit cycle is rolling over and will likely negatively impact upon property construction, steel and invariably iron ore.

It's a NOK-On!
EURNOK
, DShort
EURNOK: It's a NOK-On!

EURNOK is trading at some interesting levels, if the breaks key levels; I will be a seller.

FMG... Straddle or Strangle Baby!?!
YAHOO/ASX_FMG_AX
, DLong
YAHOO/ASX_FMG_AX: FMG... Straddle or Strangle Baby!?!

FMG vols are below its 5y mean, this gets my attention.

AUDNZD in Zeroeth Percentile
AUDNZD
, WLong
AUDNZD: AUDNZD in Zeroeth Percentile

0th Percentile. Zeroeth %ile.

False Breakout?
EURGBP
, DShort
EURGBP: False Breakout?

Perhaps there's a macro theme to play in the Brexit being a furphy... Indeed, there's compelling risk-reward on shorter-term timeframes with a stop at the recent high and a target towards the middle of the distribution. So even if one assigns a 20% probability to the trade, the E(V) might still be attractive.

Inverse H&S
NG1!
, DLong
NG1!: Inverse H&S

A pattern to watch.

USDJPY
USDJPY
, DLong
USDJPY: USDJPY

USDJPY is coiling in a falling wedge pattern, this has historically led to outsized moves in the pair.

Dollar-Yen to Break Trend!?!
USDJPY
, DLong
USDJPY: Dollar-Yen to Break Trend!?!

Dollar-yen is looking bimodally distributed; will it break its downtrend and mean-revert?

GC1!/HG1!
GC1!
, WShort
GC1!: GC1!/HG1!

The Gold vs Copper ratio is near historical extremes. Presently its in the 96th %ile of observations since 2008 and testing trend support.

The Normalised Spread of Copper vs EEM
HG1!
, W
HG1!: The Normalised Spread of Copper vs EEM

Near 2 sigma from the 8y mean...

Emerging Markets & Copper
HG1!
, D
HG1!: Emerging Markets & Copper

Interesting deviation between Emerging Markets and Copper observing it normalised over various time horizons.

GBPUSD - Commercial Positioning Near Historical Extremes
GBPUSD
, WLong
GBPUSD: GBPUSD - Commercial Positioning Near Historical Extremes

Commercials are positioned near historical extremes. One would expect this to represent an opportunity long-term on the other side of the hedgers.

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