PropNotes

PropNotes

Like the title says, I hate to join the crowd on this idea but it's becoming clear that we are finally upon what seems to be another potential bull run in BTCUSD, with a time horizon of about 6 months. While the space has matured significantly from 2017, meaning that liquidity exists at higher prices in greater size, and countless market mechanisms now exist that...

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Afternoon gang! This is a real simple idea here that I think over time will be a low n' slow winner. As autobuying, like all other industries, becomes increasingly susceptible to the forces of digitization and ecommerce, we are looking at the potential for one or two companies to own the entire space within the United States. The top two companies right now are...

PropNotes Updated 

Good Afternoon, This is just an update on the JKS situation. I shorted some more this morning, bringing my average price up a LOT. I think a more 'correct' short opportunity will come once this trendline breaks, but generally I'm still bearish and might add more short in the event of a waterfall. This company simply isn't worth it's current price.

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Just a quick trade idea that I put on recently. I sold $5 strike November '20 CRON puts for a credit of 0.86 on Tuesday afternoon. This trade yields about 21% within one month, unlevered, and the stock has to drop almost 40% before you start to lose any money. With this trade you are committing to buy CRON at a price of $5, should your option be assigned. This...

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This is a ratio instrument that tracks the price of NEE shares in terms of XOM shares. NEE is a utility company making strides in installing renewable power into its energy mix. XOM is one of the oldest and biggest dirty oil and gas players. As you can see, the global rivers of capital allocating resources and assigning valuations have, within the last two years,...

PropNotes Updated 

Take a look at the chart of $TAN and tell me it's not overextended right now. JKS is the biggest offender and I'm looking to buy some puts on this insane move. Completely unsustainable and will see lower prices from here.

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Ok. I get it. Right now it doesn't seem like a good time to be buying equities given the amount of anxiety inducing news floating around. Opening Bloomberg in the morning quickly becomes a stomach churning mess as loud headlines blare about the President's precarious health situation and the FBI preparing for election day unrest. But here's the thing - the gap...

PropNotes Updated 

Chart sums it up really. I'm out with a close beneath the support level we are seeing here, but overall it's a great price to enter an amazing stock. So technically weak that at some point we will see a reprieve from the pain.

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Afternoon guys, I think the chart really speaks for itself - the chart is broken, and it's time to take some money off the table. The MoC wasn't negative like the last several sessions, but overall I think that the period of easy gains is very much over, as least for the near term. I'm expecting a grind lower for the next two weeks or so.

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Looks like a solid breakout setup on the NKLA news. Worth a small shot imo

PropNotes

Just a quick technical note to add to my previous SPY breadth idea -> lots and lots of my former colleagues are watching this megaphone play out right now, and depending on how the price action resolves it will likely confirm one of two narratives; either that we are due for another crash given the bleak macro picture, or that we will continue higher as the ISM's...

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One of the most fascinating things, to me, to come out of this pandemic, was how quickly the country rushed to adopt pets. Several friends of mine, upon facing quarantine, immediately went out to their local shelters to try and adopt puppies and kittens. I slowly began to realize that this wasn't just an aspect of my friend group, but part of a larger trend among...

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MY BEST WRITE UP YET -> Hey guys! I've decided to pitch something I've never put out before - a longer term hedge-fund-style value hold that's a simple and easy 6 bagger from these prices. Here's the deal: FLR is a MASSIVE EPC company that's in charge of building the infrastructure of the future. As an Engineering, Procurement and Construction firm that...

PropNotes Updated 

Hey gang! I know I just posted a note over the weekend that was pounding the table for getting short tesla, and it turned out to be the right move - the stock had just gone too far in too short a time. While I think this company is still a mess from a financial / fundamental valuation standpoint, I do think the stock could see one final leg higher. The only...

PropNotes Updated 

The following is an excerpt from the middle of a recent conversation with a friend of mine who is a fundamental investor with a great track record, and I thought it might be useful here to explain the second attempt I've made to short this company. Me: "Tesla trading with a 486 GAAP split adjusted forward PE. GM would need to earn 40 billion dollars in net income...

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NYCB looks like it's a really solid buy down here right now. Not only does the stock have a healthy 7.5% Dividend Yield - so you get paid to wait for this trade to work - but it's recently sold off into a support area that looks prime for a bounce. Both conditions and expectations now are better than they were in March when NYCB traded into and then off of this...

PropNotes Updated 

BIGC, a SHOP competitor, just teamed up with Instagram to work on their checkout experience. Not only is this a huge deal in terms of revenue, but it also proves that BIGC can compete with bigger players and continue to gain traction. This is a HUGE catalyst for the stock. I expect to see this company at 150 by the end of the year. Sometimes the narrative of a...

PropNotes Updated 

I'm not sure how many people on this site have read "Reminiscences Of A Stock Operator", but it's frequently heralded as one of the best trading / investing books of all time by people all over financial media. I read it a while ago, and while I think it's a good book, really only one of the main concepts presented stuck with me; the idea of market breadth. During...