PropNotes

PropNotes

This is one of my favorite companies around, given it's low valuation, high margins, and huge TAM. This also trades both 1.) at a discount to competitors and 2.) within a range for the last year and a half, so I think it might be time for SMAR to have it's day in the sun. At the very least, something to watch.

PropNotes Updated 

This is one of the most overextended stocks I've ever seen. The fundamental problems with this company haven't changed substantially since the beginning of the pandemic, and yet due to the dynamics of short interest the stock continues to squeeze. The recent rally is likely shorts covering before earnings, because I can't fathom what organic buyers of the stock...

PropNotes

This is something I've been tracking for the last little bit and I think it's finally time to pull the trigger. The basic idea behind this trade is that AMD stock is massively overvalued in terms of INTC stock, and the valuations just don't make sense anymore. Here's the bottom line Intel earns $23.3 billion in net income on $79 Billion in Revenue. This is...

PropNotes

This is meant to be a bit of an update to the previous idea I had a little while that got featured by the editors on this site. Then, I was mentioning that the stock got a bit overextended and was showing some weakness into earnings. Thank goodness I didn't short it then, as the earnings report was quite strong and AAPL shrugged off the COVID crisis & had a huge...

PropNotes

As primarily an equity and equity derivatives trader, I haven't spent much time looking at crypto since I had a lucky buy of ETHUSD at ~$7 that launched my trading career. Back in the golden era of crypto one of the most popular types of trading was exchange arb, and this morning when I was looking into normal start arb trades, I stumbled across the fact that the...

PropNotes

It looks like they have structurally underperformed the market as a whole, and even with the yield differential being +2%, they still get crushed. Seems like a lot of people are paying a lot for weak-ish cash flow and "peace of mind". It looks like the only time they outperformed was between 2009 and 2010 after getting obliterated compared to the market.

PropNotes

This post is mostly just serving as an informative update for those who don't follow Wall St Bets, which is a huge reddit community where inexperienced retail traders talk about stocks - CORN has become a highly talked about name recently. Plenty of the names mentioned there become / are volatile and are subsequently talked about by the mainstream media like CNBC...

PropNotes

Two companies to watch into earnings - this pairing has the potential to continue running, especially given the state of direct to consumer retail in the era of Covid. Good way to reduce market risk while getting some PRPL exposure.

PropNotes

SLV, /GC and other precious metals are rallying hard while DXY continues to sink off of the back of central bank easing. No Reason at this point not to join the party. There were a few people at the beginning of this predicting a new precious metals super cycle, and while I'm not sure something to that degree will happen (Look at /GC around 1998-2006), I think we...

PropNotes

This is one of the more insane calls I've seen of late. Last night NVAX released drug data which was interpreted as a huge positive, and thus the stock is rallying this morning, especially following a JPM call that the company's fair value is $275. That's quite a bit of headroom from where we are now, and also about 70% upside from yesterday's close. A quick look...

PropNotes

I've had some followers ask me to take a look at the recent selloff in the dollar, and so that's what this post is all about. I think a couple of things are important to understand when looking at currencies. Firstly, while the recent movement seems drastic and violent, it's actually rather tame compared to moves from years past. We are still trading within the...

PropNotes

SQ has had an enormous run since its march lows due to the business's strong operating results and improving margins. However, in the last two weeks, the rally has taken a bit of a break. While there is some valuation risk here, the momentum still remains to the upside, and this breather could present an opportunity to lock in gains or initiate a new, low risk...

PropNotes

While other media and tech names have been on a massive run and are beginning to look precariously priced (valuation wise) when compared to operating results + global macro conditions, Twitter has languished and is subsequently a potential buy candidate as operating results are improving, priced at a fraction of the valuation of other market darlings. I usually...

PropNotes Updated 

AAPL is starting to show some signs of weakness, and given XLK's overall importance to the larger US Equities market, this spells trouble. This has the potential to continue higher but the risk right now looks like it's to the downside. Given how extended momentum names are in this market, one should tread carefully with their long positions, especially highly...

PropNotes

By virtually every measure AAPL's massive rally is now kaput. Multiple trend line breaks, heiken ashi fails, and a general market double top spell major trouble for this uber-cap company.

PropNotes

Today I'm going to talk a bit about relative value trading, something that almost nobody on this site is familiar with. The best way to learn about it is by running through an example. I've been watching this trade for a long time, and it's finally starting to perk its head up again. CELH is an awesome, high rev growth and high margin business in the beverage...

PropNotes

This trade is fairly simple; it's looking to capitalize on the fact that Apple and Microsoft, America's two largest companies by market cap, are enjoying the spoils of immense profitability and revenue growth at the cost of legacy technology + communication providers CSCO and ORCL. I've been in for a while and think now is probably the time to share to the lovely...

PropNotes

The stock has made a tremendous run and I believe that it will come back to test the 1150 area before continuing higher, if indeed it does try to do so. I'm short shares.