PropNotes

15:39

PropNotes

Good afternoon everyone! Just wanted to examine how gamma affects the markets, how you can use it in your own process, and an interesting dynamic that has been playing out in the S&P over the last few months. Cheers!

PropNotes

Nothing much to say here. Valuation is outrageous and unsustainable, and the parabolic price action, with hedge funds getting in at 'any price', will bite current buyers. This is a $150 stock on a *good* day. Risk seems skewed to the downside.

PropNotes

Good morning everyone! Every Thursday morning we highlight our favorite trade setup of the week. This week, we will be taking a look at a flush setup in $TLRY. Sorry for the lack of posts here and on SeekingAlpha recently, a few of us are out of the office in Okemo, VT taking some vacation. We will be back to regular posting next Monday. This setup is simply too...

PropNotes

Exactly what it sounds like! Each Tuesday we publish our sector reads. These reads combine relative and absolute performance projections in order to come up with strength profiles. You could use these as the basis of a long/short sector strategy, or as a starting point for a top-down hunt to find the best positioned single names. The scale goes from -4 to +4. Good...

PropNotes

Apple's recent growth bump, primarily caused by COVID-induced demand drivers, has sent the stock and multiple soaring. The current valuation is pricing in higher growth for longer. This seems unlikely. Trimming shares or selling calls here to reduce downside seems attractive, given the extended multiples. --------- For those who haven't been paying attention,...

PropNotes

Good morning everyone! Every Thursday morning we highlight our favorite trade setup of the week. This week, we will be taking a look at a breakout setup in $NFLX. Now, before everyone goes and mentions how strong the stock is... don't worry. We know. We expect the stock to consolidate up here for a little while given how strong the ADX / RSI is. However, over the...

PropNotes

Exactly what it sounds like! Each Tuesday we publish our sector reads. These reads combine relative and absolute performance projections in order to come up with strength profiles. You could use these as the basis of a long/short sector strategy, or as a starting point for a top-down hunt to find the best positioned single names. The scale goes from -4 to +4. Good...

PropNotes

Good morning gang! Every Monday from now on we will present our top spread trade idea of the week. This week, we are looking at a 3d printing spread between Desktop Metal & NanoDimension, and Stratasys & 3D Systems. If you look out 5-10 years in the 3d printing space, most of the uses for 3d printing and additive manufacturing will be within the automotive,...

PropNotes

Good morning everyone! From now on, every Thursday morning we will be highlighting our favorite trade setup of the week. This week, we will be taking a look at a short setup in A. Agilent Technologies makes lab equipment for life sciences and chemical companies, which is a stable and growing market. The company does a lot in revenue - roughly 6 Billion over the...

PropNotes

Each Wednesday from now on, we will be publishing an idea about an interesting, under-the-radar stock that we think has long term potential and deserves a little attention. This week, we are looking at DNMR. For those who are unfamiliar, Danimer Scientific is a bioplastics producer based right here in the USA. The company went public via SPAC last year, and after...

PropNotes

Exactly what it sounds like! Each Tuesday from now on we will be publishing our sector reads. These reads combine relative and absolute performance projections in order to come up with strength profiles. You could use these as the basis of a long/short sector strategy, or as a starting point for a top-down hunt to find the best positioned single names. The scale...

PropNotes

Eagle eyed viewers of this chart might be able to see that something is *different* between 2010-2019 and 2020-2021. The slope of the market's ascent over the last 16 months has been nothing short of astonishing, and it's more than double the slope of the previous decade. Even if you make the chart a log chart, the slope of the recent recovery is still higher than...

PropNotes

COST is an above average company with great execution on it's business plan. However, the stock, which now trades at a RICH 44x FWD earnings, is beginning to look expensive - given that's a premium to the market's long term average of 15x earnings, and even still a 30% premium to COST's average valuation over the last 5 years. Combined with the recent UMCSI...

PropNotes

AVGO daily chart is setting up for a huge breakout, should the right market conditions present themselves. Trading at only 14x FWD EV/EBITDA, this cheap semi conglomerate has a lot of upside should XLK continue its outperformance and the market remains how it has been. Earnings revisions have been trending upwards as well. Fiscal EPS Esti YoY Gwth 1M Trend 3M...

PropNotes

This morning, the UMCSI printed a 70.2, which is the worst number since March of last year and, prior to that, the end of 2011. If you were wondering why TLT is up 1.4% today, and XLP is crushing, while XLY and XLF are getting hurt, it's because a slowdown in consumer sentiment is REALLY bad for inflation expectations and retail spending. This further plays into...

PropNotes Updated 

It might finally be time to short this bad boy. Stock has been on the run of all runs, and today possibly caps an unbelievable buying crescendo as it truly feels as though sentiment may have peaked. Piecing into this seems like the move because it's going to be hard to tell when it's peaked precisely. The only way to short this would be with a defined risk put...

PropNotes

Just been looking at this chart more and more lately. Seems like PFE wants higher into the 50's-60's. It's certainly been trading sideways long enough. Also, doesn't seem like MRNA should be trading at 60% of PFE's market cap. Potential for an interesting long short trade here. Cheers!

PropNotes

This idea is really just a follow up to another idea we posted a little while back about this same scenario playing out. Looks like we might be there, again! We are bidding lower. Cheers all!