QuantumLogicTrading

QuantumLogicTrading Updated 

Long GBPNZD: 1. Based on the last 16yrs of daily close data (since 01/01/2000 to date) GBPNZD has a cumulative probability of a =>6th day lower at 0.99%, hence there is a implied 99% chance of reversal on the daily. 2. Also we see the Z-Score for, Monthly, 3m and 2wk all above 1.5SD - with 1m heavily over sold at -2SD. 3. Fundamentally Sterling looks a little...

QuantumLogicTrading Updated 

Long EURNZD: 1. Based on the last 16yrs of daily close data (since 01/01/2000 to date) EURNZD has a cumulative probability of a =>6th day lower at 0.5%, hence there is a implied 99.5% chance of reversal on the daily. 2. Also we see the Z-Score for, Monthly, 3m and 2wk all above 1SD. 3. Fundamentally I also like being long EUR given the ECBs new more neutral...

QuantumLogicTrading

Fed Yellen Speech: Yellen: Current Policy Should Help Economy Move Toward Goals Yellen: Welcome Development That More People Seeking Jobs, Unemployment Measures Steady Yellen: Household Spending Key Source Of Economic Growth Yellen: Fully Committed To Achieving 2% Inflation Objective Yellen: Recent Pickup In Growth, Labor Market Strengthen Case For Rate...

QuantumLogicTrading

Fed Yellen Speech: Yellen: Current Policy Should Help Economy Move Toward Goals Yellen: Welcome Development That More People Seeking Jobs, Unemployment Measures Steady Yellen: Household Spending Key Source Of Economic Growth Yellen: Fully Committed To Achieving 2% Inflation Objective Yellen: Recent Pickup In Growth, Labor Market Strengthen Case For Rate...

QuantumLogicTrading Updated 

As expected the fed decided NOT to change the fed funds rate or discount rate. We could/ shoud see some USD flushing of fed funds for september to the downside I stick with my 99.5 to 100 for USDJPY shorts as attached. Attention now turns to Yellens speech in 30mins - deeper analysis to come then. FOMC Rate Decision: Fed Leaves Policy Rate Unchanged, Says...

QuantumLogicTrading Updated 

As expected the fed decided NOT to change the fed funds rate or discount rate. We could/ shoud see some USD flushing of fed funds for september to the downside I stick with my 99.5 to 100 for USDJPY shorts as attached. Attention now turns to Yellens speech in 30mins - deeper analysis to come then. FOMC Rate Decision: Fed Leaves Policy Rate Unchanged, Says...

QuantumLogicTrading Updated 

USDJPY: 1. Price action immediately following BOJ this september was more than erratic but at the same time showed some consistency for those of you who can remember back to Julys performance - we moved instantly lower on the decision to 101 flat, before ripping 180pips higher to 102.8 to then lose most of the bids and trade back to the 101 base. 2. The BOJ...

QuantumLogicTrading Updated 

USDJPY: 1. Price action immediately following BOJ this september was more than erratic but at the same time showed some consistency for those of you who can remember back to Julys performance - we moved instantly lower on the decision to 101 flat, before ripping 180pips higher to 102.8 to then lose most of the bids and trade back to the 101 base. 2. The BOJ...

QuantumLogicTrading

FED/ FOMC Tactical 18hr trading strategy: 1. With active structural shorts from 2180 (previously discussed/ entered) take profits "early" into the intermediate lows at 2100-2120 that we are likely to see into Fed volatility given hawkish surprise which may or MAY not occur. - Taking profit even at higher levels (if the hike surprise pricing is less aggressive...

QuantumLogicTrading

FED/ FOMC Tactical 18hr trading strategy: 1. With active structural shorts from 2180 (previously discussed/ entered) take profits "early" into the intermediate lows at 2100-2120 that we are likely to see into Fed volatility given hawkish surprise which may or MAY not occur. - Taking profit even at higher levels (if the hike surprise pricing is less aggressive...

QuantumLogicTrading

RBA minutes broadly neutral on the margin. Aussie rates (30 day bills) are implying a 5% chance of an October 25bps cut. In general we've seen aussie rates firm up, with 30d bills moving from 7% last week and 9% the week before to now 5%, this firming/ steepening has been the general consensus further along the maturity curve where rate cut hopes are diminishing...

QuantumLogicTrading

RBA MINUTES: JUDGED CURRENT STANCE OF POLICY CONSISTENT WITH GROWTH, INFLATION TARGETS - Steady Decision Took Into Account Rate Cuts In May And August, Recent Data - Estimated Around Half Of The August Rate Cut Had Been Passed On To Bank Customers - Repeats Rising A$ Would Complicate Economic Rebalancing - Decline In A$ Since 2013 Continued To Support Traded...

QuantumLogicTrading

BOE view broadly consistent with expectations, a neutral no action. Interestingly and somewhat confusing though was their "If Nov Outlook Broadly Consistent With Aug, Majority Of MPC Expect Further Rate Cut" comment which I am not sure about i.e. Aug data was firm so assuming this continues the BOE will still cut? But either way, looking at their last cut and QE...

QuantumLogicTrading Updated 

Gold Positioning - Buy @ Market; 1350TP1 1370TP2 - 1 lot (small) and add double every daily close lower - 1lot, 2lots tomorrow, 4lots the next day: 1. Risk sentiment looks to be turning south, particularly in US equities which have seen monthly lows which is consistent with the broad equity valuation correction lower that i have been expecting for the past few...

QuantumLogicTrading

Lautenschlaeger remained neutral on the margin, stating raising rates wouldnt help anybody but neither would the change to the APP or further cuts. This comes in line with last weeks ECB's to leave policy unchanged. I think this is more pressure for EUR bids but undoubtedly i think USD will dominate the pair until the fed on the 21st and fed funds pricing will...

QuantumLogicTrading

Global demand growth revised lower is downside pressure for oil and more bad news for the commodity.. Short cad or oil are firm proxies to play this. 44.7 next target lower before 43.6. Weve seen oil move 2% lower on the day already on the back of the news, more downside today may struggle but I wouldnt be surprised. Fed/ weak dollar may hinder further downside...

QuantumLogicTrading

Voting member Lael Brainard maintained her mildly dovish stance, with the headline quotye being "case to tighten policy preemptively is less compelling" perhaps the most indicative of the dovish sentiment. The rest of the comments remained neutral-downbeat and didnt echo JPM's CEO's comments of "A 25-basis-point increase is a drop in the bucket," and Let's just...

QuantumLogicTrading

Voting member Lael Brainard maintained her mildly dovish stance, with the headline quotye being "case to tighten policy preemptively is less compelling" perhaps the most indicative of the dovish sentiment. The rest of the comments remained neutral-downbeat and didnt echo JPM's CEO's comments of "A 25-basis-point increase is a drop in the bucket," and Let's just...