QuantumLogicTrading

QuantumLogicTrading

Short USD positioning: Long GBPUSD and short USDJPY - Sterling re-balancing higher (attached), no fed hike likely thus 20% priced in needs to be faded out in USD downside. Further, my bets are any real BOJ action doesnt happen (e.g. depo/ lsp cut or QE) - All JPY STIR markets are infact pricing hikes, there isnt any level of cuts priced (Libor, Tibor, Euroyen)....

QuantumLogicTrading Updated 

GBP moving higher? Data: 1. Leading post brexit data has recovered significantly from 5-10yr lows to firm growth or significant recovery (PMI, Optimism, Confidence) and imo this will be continuing theme given negs arent going to start for another 6-9m, there isnt any impetus to drive us lower again. 2. Also the macro indicators are trading well, e.g....

QuantumLogicTrading Updated 

GBP moving higher? Data: 1. Leading post brexit data has recovered significantly from 5-10yr lows to firm growth or significant recovery (PMI, Optimism, Confidence) and imo this will be continuing theme given negs arent going to start for another 6-9m, there isnt any impetus to drive us lower again. 2. Also the macro indicators are trading well, e.g....

QuantumLogicTrading

SPX downside to 2000 Option Volume: 1. Total CBOE -0.79% Equity option volume broke Brexit highs and 1YR +2StanDevs at 36 to trade at 38 (and 70% higher on the day) indicating we are entering an aggressive sell-off period (holders of underlying have scrambled to hedge their exposure in a fashion more aggressive than brexit! - which is particularly saying...

QuantumLogicTrading

SPX downside to 2000 Option Volume: 1. Total CBOE Equity option volume broke Brexit highs and 1YR +2StanDevs at 36 to trade at 38 indicating we are entering an aggressive sell-off period (holders of underlying have scrambled to hedge their exposure in a fashion more aggressive than brexit! - which is particularly saying something given that we saw SPX trade...

QuantumLogicTrading

Fed funds flopped back under 20% implied probability for a september hike following Fed Kaplans comments. In reality the spike higher in early US trading was largely uncalled for with Rosengrens comments not much of a real impetus for long term stability. As previously mentioned USD trading is likely to remain choppy, im opting to buy yen and short SPX and keep...

QuantumLogicTrading

Fed Funds Rallied up from 18% to 33% on the day with Fed rosengrens hawkish comments the only likely impetus. Imo DXY here at 95 mid has an easy 50bps of topside left in it if rates can hold here at 33%, UST also seen higher across the board with the bench mark 10y yield breaking pre-brexit levels. Long DXY, and shorting $yen on rallies is the way I intend on...

QuantumLogicTrading

EUR$: 1. The Greece Debt crisis induced an agGressive 3000pip+ sell-off in just 6m (-22%). As the crisis "resolved" EUR$ however failed to retrace any of its losses. - Instead EUR$ looked to adopt these new crisis lows as what has become a long-run trading range - the likely explanation would be that future FED/ ECB monpol divergence was priced "early", hence...

QuantumLogicTrading Updated 

The USD Jobs report missed expectations across the board with the print, earnings and URate the like. Market reaction was interesting to say the least, initally we said dollar trade aggresssively on the offer, however not for long. it was USD bulls who look to have closed the day winning. On reflection this makes sense given fed funds rate held up relatively well...

QuantumLogicTrading Updated 

USD disappointingly failed to maintain its heavily demanded week when ISM PMIs not only fell short of expectations but also showed a slight contraction by slipping across the 50 mark to the downside. This data pattern however has been consistent for USD, where it has failed to show any upbeat prints, though in the past months the Job market has been able to stand...

QuantumLogicTrading

Same onld rhetoric from Kashkari - nonetheless i remain short GBP$ on rallies into 1.315/25, given DXY's advances GBP$ has been an outstanding under-performer given 1.315 is the levels we closed on friday/ opened on monday. However, Manufacturing and Construction PMIs are a risk, any topside sterling could certainly trade to the upper levels of the range (1.325)...

QuantumLogicTrading Updated 

CBOE Equity Option Volume: 1. Total Equities Option volume now trades above all moving averages and is currently 1 deviation above the 3 month and 1 month average - we moved 40% higher on Friday post yellens hawkish Jackson Hole Speech, from 1700000 to 2500000. - Though we remain about 40-50% below the "risk-off" shift levels that we usually see in a firm...

QuantumLogicTrading Updated 

USD vs Carry: 1. Yield vs USD - G10 - AUD NZD; EM - BRL, ARS, TRY is likely to continue its downside pain into next week as dollar denominated short term interest rates (STIR) spiked (after hawkish Yellen comments - see attached post) to pre-brexit highs (30D Fed Funds steeper and Implying hikes now up at P=33% Sept, P=59.1 Dec, P=92.1% 2016) which as you can...

QuantumLogicTrading

DXY: 1. Given the firming of USD STIR/ Fed funds following Yellens JH remarks and the markets hawkish reaction i still think there is another % or so of topside to be priced into USD topside. - Fed funds implying 36% probability of a Sept hike - the highest implied prob in 3 months - hence given cables 50pip appreciation i feel theres another 100pips here to be...

QuantumLogicTrading Updated 

GBPNZD: 1. Wanted to repost my view on GBPNZD - remain short on rallies here into 1.82 with a 1.80, 200pip target. 2. This whole week weve remained strictly rangebound and sterling kiwi has paid every time (about 10) on shorts at the 1.810 level so i will continue this view at 1.82 given: 1) NZD carry continues to be the highest in G10 so Kiwi demand will...

QuantumLogicTrading Updated 

Fed Lockhart Speech Highlights: Lockhart: Tepid Business Investment Plans Raise Questions About Growth Lockhart: Uncertainty A Real Factor For Economy Right Now Lockhart: Fed Rate Policy Will Be 'Cautious And Gradual' Lockhart: 'No Gun To Our Head' To Raise Rates Quickly Lockhart: Two Rate Rises Remain Possible, One Likely This Year Fed's Lockhart: There's...

QuantumLogicTrading

GBPJPY: 1. Given Fed Yellen's "hawkish" market response and GBPUSD, GBPNZD and GBPAUD shorts TPd on the rally lower today cleared (FX risk book clear too), im looking to add some safe haven assets to my portfolio. 2. Looking at GBPJPY and GBP structures on the whole, there has been alot of sterling longs in the past 2wks accumulating in spot as economic...

QuantumLogicTrading Updated 

Yellen as interpreted by the market was bullish, though price action immediately following the JH Speech Highlights was anything but this clear cut and imo said alot more about what was actually said i.e. there is still uncertainty/ no clear commitment, as DXY moved higher immediately after before aggressively selling off for the next 20-30minutes, before then...