QuantumLogicTrading

QuantumLogicTrading Updated 

b]GBPAUD: 1. Sterlingaussie has been aggressively bid higher for the last 7-days on the back of sterling data outperforming last week, broad aussie weakness and a general recovery from lows. 2. Statistically, after analysing the last 16.5yrs of data it shows the probability of a 8th day or more of buying is 0.254% which means there is an implied 98.78% chance...

QuantumLogicTrading Updated 

GBPAUD: 1. SterlingKiwi has been aggressively bid higher for the last 5-days on the back of sterling data outperforming last week, broad aussie weakness and a general recovery from lows. 2. Statistically, after analysing the last 16.5yrs of data it shows the probability of a 6th day or more of buying is 1.22% which means there is an implied 98.78% chance that...

QuantumLogicTrading Updated 

SPX 1. Correlation/ Technical analysis - SPX has set up the most predictable price action I have ever seen - confirmed by two EXACT 0.55% moves higher and the last 4 moves have been almost exactly 2weeks. 2. Price action currently shows exhastion has set in and there will either be 1) another bull exhastion leg 3 (+0.55%) to 2206 OR 2) A sell-off will begin...

QuantumLogicTrading Updated 

AUDNZD: 1. Aussie kiwi has been aggressively sold lower for the last 8/9 days, with the bullday being only 4pips higher (pretty much 9 straight days of selling) and most recently the last 4 days have been pure consecutive closes lower. 2. Statistically, after analysing the last 16.5yrs of data it shows the probability of a 5th day or more of selling is 3% which...

QuantumLogicTrading

The market took RBNZ Wheelers comments as largely hawkish before fading off to neutral after interestingly Wheeler mentioned that the current market rate tracker has 35bps of cuts priced in - illuding to 2 more cuts being likely though he failed to mention how realistic this expectation is past what future data holds. I like being short GBPNZD into 1.81 rallies...

QuantumLogicTrading

SPX Bull run 1. Post Brexit US equities have been in an easing induced rally, with the Fed delaying hikes, BOE easing and RBNZ/ RBA also easing - this encouraged US risk markets to set new highs - with 7 of the last 9 weeks strong closes higher. The Bull run over? 1. The last 2wks have closed flat but hhave remained rangey indicating the market has low...

QuantumLogicTrading

USD/ DXY: 1. In the past, 7/9 days DXY has lost a considerable amount, from 97 to 94 as US data, starting with a big GDP miss, has continued to be poor across the board with all but employment not hitting the target. 2. Fed Minutes of July that we saw this week reaffirmed the need for firmer data before any rate hike will happen with several members wanting to...

QuantumLogicTrading

Fed Kaplan unsurprisingly maintained the tune of his fellow members and kept the tone hawkish, with no mention of recent data undershoots but also interestingly on the hawkish side like the others failing to mention the record highs in the US Equity markets. From here USD is in a tricky position, a open-close below the 2yr MA may signal a broader and more...

QuantumLogicTrading Updated 

Fed Willams was hawkish on the margin and much of what was said was in line with Dudley and Bullard today/ this week in what looks like an attempt to give the USD a support as it slipped and closed below the 2yr average today and struggles to find support despite 5-consecutive days of selling. Trading strategy: 1. Given USD weakness I like GBPUSD shorts at...

QuantumLogicTrading Updated 

Fed Dudley reiterated his hawkish sentiment from earlier in the week today, concentrating somewhat purely on the labour market and its gains (ignoring every other data point since that would mean being dovish) nonetheless this is supportive of USD bulls regardless of the genuineness. As posted earlier, i like GBPUSD and EURUSD shorts - see attached posts. The...

QuantumLogicTrading

After 5days higher EUR$ Statistically is a 80th percentile sell opportunity - the monetary policy minutes were dovish on the margin reiterating and stressing the ECB's willingness to "Boost stimulus again if needed". This should put downside pressure on EUR given september meeting is coming up (when most likely to add to easing). EURAUD and EURUSD shorts here look...

QuantumLogicTrading

Retail sales outperformed on all cylinders today and GBP as expected has rallied into nice shortable levels now - with brexit uncertainty likely to continue to way and continued dovish BOE support also equally weighing on sterling in the future. My preferred shorts immediately are vs USD as i expected Fed Dudley and Williams (speaking today) to talk the extremely...

QuantumLogicTrading Updated 

FOMC minutes were neutral-dovish on the margin as expected, with members split on calls for further rate hikes - though there was a general consensus that the Fed needed to acumulate more data before moving on rates (this could be dovish given in real time data has been poor). Several wanted more confidence on inflation, since this is the casewe know inflation...

QuantumLogicTrading Updated 

Fed Lockhart was cautious on the margin stating one rate hike in 2016 only "could" be appropriate rather than should which echoed the sentiment of the earlier Fed Dudley speech which was alot more hawkish imo. This has helped the USD back off its Dudley induced gain, and refocus on the CPI miss as Lockhart reminded the market that " Some Signs Election Uncertainty...

QuantumLogicTrading

"It's a search-for-yield world and this country still looks attractive because other yields look so unattractive," Mr. Stevens said in a joint interview with The Wall Street Journal and the Australian newspaper ahead of his retirement next month. "That's not something that the Reserve Bank can wave a wand and make go away." The below and above support my bullish...

QuantumLogicTrading

GOLDMAN SACHS - COMMODITIES: WHAT'S DRIVING THE MARKET TODAY The One-Liner Commodities broadly higher with weaker USD. Copper trading higher after failing to break $4750 in recent days. The Fundamental Highlights Energy: Crude marginally higher with spreads and cracks largely unchanged. The Iranian Oil Minister has not yet decided whether he will...

QuantumLogicTrading

Fed dudley was largely hawkish on the margin more than hintin that the Fed should hike this year using plural "rate hikes this year good news" and also saying "fed funds futures under-pricing the rate hike likelihood". These remarks seem to be the catalyst for USD buying despite the weak CPI data (as expected) - nonetheless i think this is a good opp to add to...

QuantumLogicTrading

Minutes were neutral with little hints to further action, much of which inline with the SOMP - if anything it was on the hawkish side given they expect "inflation to be improved by easing" which infers they think policy stable at 1.50% might be sufficient. Though they did go on to say "AUD$ rise could cause complications" though it was kept to a very limited sense...