QuantumLogicTrading

QuantumLogicTrading

IEA Monthly Oil Market Review: -IEA Keeps World Oil Demand Growth Forecast at 1.4M B/D in 2016 -IEA Downgrades World Oil Demand Growth to 1.2M B/D in 2017 -IEA Sees Lower Oil Demand Growth on Dimmer Macroeconomic Outlook -IEA Sees Lower Oil Demand Growth on Dimmer Macroeconomic Outlook -IEA Says Global Oil Supply Up 800,000 B/D in July on Higher OPEC,...

QuantumLogicTrading Updated 

Governor of the RBNZ Wheeler offered little bearish pressure on kiwi, refusing to go into any intervention talk and failing to say what the bank will actually use to tame this deflationaire NZD they are experiencing at the moment - with the comments below in mind imo this leaves on direction for Kiwi (short of some FOMC/ USD bullish pressure which seems unlikely...

QuantumLogicTrading Updated 

RBNZ Monetary Policy Decision : 1. At 22:00GMT the RBNZ are expected to cut their OCR rate to 2% from 2.25% (25bps), further they will release their monpol statement and rate statement then too - with RBNZ Gov Wheeler speaking 1hr after the release. 2. The are a number of outcomes which are likely to or not to affect the NZD$ market, I will list the combinations...

QuantumLogicTrading Updated 

Relatively poor delivery from the RBNZ, by the looks of the whipsaw the market wanted/ expected 50bps based on the AUD differential and the RBA rate cut last week 50bps or some alt policy (e.g. QE) seemed like the smart move to make. From here Kiwi and Aussie longs look preferential as the macro environment shifts to a yield seeking stance from monpol trading -...

QuantumLogicTrading

NZD$ Technical Analysis: Moving Average/ fair price gauge: 1. Kiwi looks rich here at the lower 0.72 level which, significantly above the 3m and 12m which sit at 0.703 and 0.690 respestively, whilst the 1 trades at 0.711. - However, going into RBNZ where they are expected to be dovish (discussed in detail in attached post), these MA levels fall nicely in line...

QuantumLogicTrading Updated 

$Yen - There is little impetus for this pair this week, with this recent rally likely part of the NFP report flushing out. - Nonetheless from here I maintain my bearish bias given the BOJ and JPN govts massive let downs I think USDJPY topside will struggle and we will move through 100 once the risk-off tone returns (which is likely once the equities rally/...

QuantumLogicTrading Updated 

Post RBA has left Aussie in a somewhat uncertain direction; whilst the 25bps cut last week should have seen us offered to at least the 0.74 low support level, instead weve seen persistent aussie bids, even despite the strong USD employment report and consequential increased rate hike odds. Much of this Aussie topside is a function of investors shifting macro...

QuantumLogicTrading

The RBA was relatively neutral on the margin, keeping their inflation targets the same at 1.5-2.5. However, unfortunately for aussie shorts the RBA didnt offer any forward guidence on sentiment towards further easing, or specific reference to the aussie FX level - despite there being a strong bid bias brewing in the aud$ cross post-25bps cut. Also their forecasts...

QuantumLogicTrading Updated 

BOE's policy decision and QIR was largely inline with expectations, perhaps even 10bn better than expected on the QE side - and was very forgiving with hints towards further interest easing, though the stubborn unwillingness to realise negative rates undermined this to some extent. GBPJPY and GBPUSD shorts traded into intermediate TP levels - with GBPJPY...

QuantumLogicTrading

BOJ dept Gov Iwata was the most recent in what seems to be a slew of attempts by JPY officials, whether it be Govt or BOJ to try and weaken the Yen with yet again more dovish/ promising rhetoric. Statements such as "prepared to loosen policy further without hesitation" where in my mind no doubt undermined by the BOJ's seemingly blind assesment of future...

QuantumLogicTrading

Fed Evans was the third fed member this week to hint that at least one rate increase is on the cards, though more dovish in saying "one hike could be appropriate" vs saying "expect the fed to hike at least once this year" which we heard from Dudley/ Kaplan earlier in the week. Though in reality his speech was dovish on the margin and offered little help for the...

QuantumLogicTrading Updated 

imo sterling strength/ USD weakness has opened up a great opp to get short vs the USD. Also, technically £YEN looks like it has some 400pips of downside in it available if the BOE do ease and weaken the currency (130.5). Shorting GBP$ at 1.33 opens up 250pips of easy downside profit assume the BOE deliver 25bps and 50bn of QE (the consensus) - £Yen at 1.35 opens...

QuantumLogicTrading

Interestingly the RTRS poll for Aug has a bullish near-term bias for $yen vs in July - my opinion is contrary to their poll as the BOJ and JPY MOF failed to deliver the hype expected/ promised this past week - i think 101/2 is much more likely for the next 3 months vs their 103.8. Comments from PM Abe, MOF and BOJ minutes that we observed in the Asia session were...

QuantumLogicTrading

More of the same here - my USD view remains bullish against AUD, NZD, GBP from here and at these levels. Especially on the back of the RBA i still think we should see 0.745 in AUD$ today, 0.69 in kiwi on the 10th (RBNZ), and 1.28 for GBP on the 4th (BOE) Fed Kaplan Speech Comments: Kaplan: Expects Continued Oil Price Volatility Until Year-End Kaplan: 1Q, 2Q...

QuantumLogicTrading Updated 

RBA Cut the Cash rate to 1.50% by 25bps, the market has had a very subdued reaction though, barely falling 30pips from market. I still think there should be more downside here and into the mid/low 74xx before the full fade comes in - so luckily room for retails to get in, looks like the algos were having a day off today. This is positive for any kiwi$ short...

QuantumLogicTrading Updated 

Inline with the mixed information below, i too am undecided with what the RBA will do. There are several arguments for a cut e.g. CPI falling at an alarming rate/ strong trend; strong aussie; 1.75% high yield and likely to maintain AUD strength. But several against e.g. some of the trimmed prints show stability at 1.7%; need for more data - aussie employment...

QuantumLogicTrading Updated 

Fed Dudley was speaking At A joint New York Fed, Indonesian Central Bank Seminar On Sunday evening when he left a mixed impression for the markets to digest - saying "it is premature to rule out an interest-rate increase this year" but then on the contrary saying "Raising Rates Prematurely Would Be Riskier Than Moving Slightly Too Late" and following up that...

QuantumLogicTrading

Long EURCHF: 1. Having watched the 1.08 level closely post-brexit it certainly looks as if there is some FX intervention going on at the 1.08 handle - suspicions enforced even more as SNB President Jordan says FX intervention is on the cards should CHF move even higher/ Rate cut possible another 50bps. 2. Plus EUR vs CHF september rate expectations are skewed...