Quantum_Maryland_Capital

Quantum_Maryland_Capital Jun 12, 2016

In addition to increasing odds of a Brexit, many analysts are fearing a bubble in both bonds and equities. When the cost of capital approaches zero in a capitalist system dislocations are certain to occur. In looking at past tops, the second week that open and closes lower (red) and has lower intra week highs and lower intra week lows than the prior week usually...

Quantum_Maryland_Capital Jun 11, 2016

Inside the sloping trend lines up, there was an ascending triangle (the lower line was identified by Vasily) and the steeper line normally loses. The market was literally "boxed in" and combined with a shift in sentiment to risk off intertwined with increased risk of a Brexit, it had to happen

Quantum_Maryland_Capital Jun 11, 2016

Well we came pretty close in calling a top with the sharks in the water idea which suggested 2122 would be an interim top and after redrawing it was nuts on because I was a bit careless with one of the points. Anyway, it was apparent the market was starting to roll over and on the four hour chart there was a bit of a head and shoulder pattern suggesting a move...

Quantum_Maryland_Capital Jun 6, 2016

A similar chart has already been published but I developed the accompanying chart over the weekend but did not publish it until now. In the endless quest to determine where this inspired market might top, I looked at the data and determined a shark would best fit recent price activity. My primary concern was locating point D, which I did until I got the 1.13...

Quantum_Maryland_Capital Jun 4, 2016

I keep reading about double tops but I have not seen one though one may be looming in the area of 2110/2111 where $SPX meets a descending trend line from the highs of last year. I’m less than certain as to how the markets will react but if there is an adverse reaction it’s essential that the market take out 2085 decisively before a long term short becomes a...

Quantum_Maryland_Capital Jun 2, 2016

$SPX appears to be trading in two upward sloping channels: an older more moderate channel and a very aggressive channel starting after the market tagged 2025 and completed its 3% correction from 2111. Given the presence of these channels, shorts should only be taken when the channels are violated as shown in the shaded area. I have violated this rule but only...

Quantum_Maryland_Capital May 25, 2016

While I have frequently remarked about a "pesky" lower trend line which generally kept the market above 2050, I lost sight of the fact that it has a counterpart running close to parallel above. Both predate the recent channel down, most of which is "inside" the channel going up. Almost an optical illusion in that 75% of the weakness was within a channel going...

Quantum_Maryland_Capital May 21, 2016

After completing an ABCD measured move down, which is not shown but which is inherently bullish, the looming question is what lies before us? While there are countless possibilities, two stand out: (1) a simple failure at the 50 DMA (2060) or at the channel line at 2065 ish and a resumption of the trend down or (2) the development of a bearish shark. The shark,...

Quantum_Maryland_Capital May 20, 2016

As butterflies pass through a metamorphosis, markets do as well. On my futures charts its very clear that the wedge has given way to a channel and I think this is true for the $SPX as well. Though sloping down, its been profitable, thus far, to sell tops and buy bottoms. The last days are perfect examples. The market is a historian of the first order and should...

Quantum_Maryland_Capital May 19, 2016

Trying to anticipate what this market is going to do is thankless. But this level aligns with a harmonic published by someone else.

Quantum_Maryland_Capital May 18, 2016

Recent price behavior has caused some to draw conclusions which are simply not true. While ideas abound, no one knows what this puppy is going to do and I would urge all to simply ignore detailed trade recommendations; simply trade off price and, more importantly, direction of price. That’s it. Much like in previous periods, we’re experiencing overlapping days...

Quantum_Maryland_Capital May 16, 2016

This morning the $SPX market opened at 46.50 when futures (June) were trading at 43.50.........about a three point negative spread. At today' high of 65.25 futures were trading at 68.50.....a positive spread of 3.25 which is highly unusual. Friday the spread was around 3.5 points and the folks at Market View, who use futures data to construct $SPX data, added that...

Quantum_Maryland_Capital May 13, 2016

More problems for the bulls. On top of a H&S formation (only the right is highlighted) and a failed 5 wave up, we now have a clear channel leading down. Yesterday, I suggested failure might be at 73 but the party began a bit earlier at 67 precisely because of the channel. But it did get close to my target of 43. And it sliced through to 50 DMA like a hot knife...

Quantum_Maryland_Capital May 12, 2016

Many things going on simultaneously. We have a head and shoulders in play that broke, in part, due to a failed 5 wave move up but it did not tank the market. Only the right shoulder is shown. And we have a bullish descending wedge which also affords resistance and so far has kept the bulls in the barn. I think we could easily revisit 1973 or 1976 where there...

Quantum_Maryland_Capital May 11, 2016

If this is what is underway, it may take several days but when it breaks it would yield a measured move to around 1960

Quantum_Maryland_Capital May 11, 2016

This is essentially the same chart posted over the weekend in which I said we could see gains of 40 to 50 points based upon OPEX week. The bullish case is the descending wedge although it does offer resistance The bearish case is completion of a small, inverted H&S at the bottom as the market turned up. Maybe 2 pts left Also, notice the almost perfect ABC move...

Quantum_Maryland_Capital May 8, 2016

To add support to what has been said, I examined the performance of OPEX week(s) which this month arrives May 20th. Given where we are, we could easily see a 40 to 50 point gain off of Friday’s lows taking us to 2076 to 2086. Both levels are close to major retracement levels and known price resistance drawn in red. But with bulls making noises about SPX revenues...

Quantum_Maryland_Capital May 7, 2016

We finally got the bounce I had been expecting following a 12345 impulse move down although I had originally thought we were seeing and ABCD Additionally, I think firming prices today was largely technical stemming from the impulse, oversold conditions, wanting to hold the 50DMA and possible sentiment that the poor jobs report will make it difficult for the Fed...