Quantum_Maryland_Capital

Quantum_Maryland_Capital

In a previous comment I suggested we might be undergoing an ABCD correction which could ultimately form the foundation for a larger bearish Gartley. I was flat wrong on the correction pattern as I now believe it was an Elliot 12345 impulse which is typically bullish if the broader trend is up. Using the available data, its quite possible we are working on a...

Quantum_Maryland_Capital

We could be working on two patterns, the first is an ABCD which could take us to 34 where X=A; A=B; B=C; and C=D. The general rule is that A to B must equal C to D which could take us down to 2034. An alternative is for C to D to equal .618 of A to B or about 29 points which is exactly what is in place. 83-54= 29 (A to B is around 47 points). Given price...

Quantum_Maryland_Capital

Fibonacci tour guide doing its work.

Quantum_Maryland_Capital Updated 

Combined with earnings worries, inaction by the BOJ and a weak GDP release for Q1, the market decided to take a widely anticipated breather. The events described above led to a 5-0 pattern which gave us the test of 1950 and a cypher pattern (sloppy) which typically fails after retracing 62% of the C to D line. This would put us in the 88/89 area where we have...

Quantum_Maryland_Capital Updated 

Over the weekend I commented I thought the market would move slightly higher, then lower and then higher. Pretty close. It’s not unusual for the market to explore different Fib levels within the cycle in which it’s trading. In this case we are in a cycle starting at 2064 and concluding at 2011. It’s very rare the bulls will permit any pullback deeper than 78.6%...

Quantum_Maryland_Capital Updated 

The last time I commented I suggested we might see 1980 after a significant retracement of some of Thursday’s losses. We saw half of this equation with $SPX tagging 1981 but we did not see a significant retracement of the losses, leading me to believe we are likely to see a move up to 2096 or a bit higher and then a move down before undertaking the next (last)...

Quantum_Maryland_Capital

Yesterday I commented this puppy needed a rest and today it decided to take a breather. In the course of taking a much needed rest, it retraced 50% of the cycle beginning at 2064 and extending to recent highs. And after hours, it dipped lower in the futures market. We also spoke of catalysts and the McClellan oscillator, which finally edged up to over 100...

Quantum_Maryland_Capital

The market today pounded on 2010 five times (tick bar) before making it to 2011 where it retreated close to ten points on thin volume at the close. A number of technical indicators suggest the market is due for a rest but the oscillators based on advancing and declining issues (McClellan) suggest further upside. Given this backdrop the advantage must be given to...

Quantum_Maryland_Capital Updated 

After looking at the charts a bit more carefully, I think we are going higher than the 2092 I mentioned over the weekend as a possible interim high. Sometimes I fail to look at charts through the “big” lens but when you do you see we are trading in an expanding megaphone that should take us to the 2100 area if not higher. I do not believe in the durability of...

Quantum_Maryland_Capital

Last week I suggested OPEX week ending April 15th would drive the market higher. That said, I believe we have made an interim top or are very close to a top at 2092, which is an interesting level as there is price resistance, a descending black trend line drawn from the two highest highs (May and Dec) and a modest Fib extension (23.6%) of the cycle beginning at...

Quantum_Maryland_Capital

One more try: (1) Prior to recent rally we were in a cycle than began at around 2021 and peaked at 2078 (2) The recent move down took the form of an A,B,C correction retracing exactly 78.6% of the band width (3) At the bottom of the retracement, the bulls stepped in and staged what will likely be a failed five wave move that may go higher than expected. Fib...

Quantum_Maryland_Capital

With oil prices firming and the market experiencing significant intraday selling, it’s obvious there are deep and growing concerns about corporate earnings, the economy and, to a lesser extent, a firming Yen. Earnings are expected to decline 9% yoy in 1Q and the Atlanta Fed “nowcast” model forecast for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the...

Quantum_Maryland_Capital

I will keep this brief. We have recently seen a 5 wave movement to the top and after reaching point 5 we have seen a perfect Elliot correction wherein the movement from 5 to A equals B to C. Both about 36 points. I am looking for the market to move higher during the week (OPEX) and provide a set up for a significant short next week. OPEX gains, are frequently...

Quantum_Maryland_Capital

Owing largely to macro global concerns and corporate earnings, I have been somewhat bearish on the market and correctly called the recent pullback. I am in full agreement with those who believe we will test the 200DMA (2014) or possibly visit 2000 which would be a measured move on the widely discussed head and shoulders pattern current in place. If the market...

Quantum_Maryland_Capital

With a bat in a channel, there was only one likely point for D

Quantum_Maryland_Capital

Reportedly, the Europeans sold off overnight out of uncertainty of what today's job report would bring. And by most accounts it was a market friendly report with decent gains accompanied by moderate wage growth. In the event, this set up a nice long at support with either a bat or Gartley pattern. The uncertainty stems from the Fibonacci relationships as the...

Quantum_Maryland_Capital

Prior to yesterday, we had been consolidating/trading almost since the beginning of the month in a rather narrow band of approximately 57 points as illustrated in the two blue horizontal lines. Yesterday, however, on the back of increasing oil prices and extremely dovish comments from the Fed we saw prices break out of the range and today we added to those gains...

Quantum_Maryland_Capital

I am of the opinion we are likely to see a significant retracement of recent gains. Much of last week’s gains are likely attributable to the typical gains seen in the two weeks prior to OPEX which have contributed significantly to overall gains in $SPX. In the last week of OPEX (this week) we have often seen higher prices followed by a collapse and a lower weekly...