Quixilver_stx

Quixilver_stx

Gold price is reasonably correlated with 5 year real yields, which are signaling more weakness for gold

Quixilver_stx

Big ISM decline with SPX divergence is signaling more SPX downside is likely in coming months

Quixilver_stx

2014-15 vs today Seeing the first impact from virus and oil shocks now If it plays like 2014 we can see a bounce in risk assets soon BUT the worst will come later in a few months

Quixilver_stx

Inf Expectations and DXY are saying Oil's bounce is unlikely to last => Short Oil ???

Quixilver_stx

No, not really. Only 3 of 7 divergences signaled recessions in the last 50 years. Besides, some recessions did not have any divergence. So data doesn't support the recession is coming thesis. Red flag -> Divergence with recession following Green flag -> Divergence w/o recession ? -> No divergence signal before recession (This post is in response to some...

Quixilver_stx Updated 

SPX yoy performance vs PMI Manufacturing index Tried to replicate TeddyVallee's chart w/o z-scores he published on Twitter Big divergences I could find are marked with flags. I may be missing a few so make your own decisions Looks like when PMI and SPX diverged, most of the time SPX was correct! Could it be that stocks are the first to feel the liquidity...

Quixilver_stx

Inf Expectations are too high vs DXY Oil is already rolling over catching down to DXY Inf Expectations should roll over soon unless DXY collapses soon => Long TLT