RamziAbouAbdallah-CMT

RamziAbouAbdallah-CMT

• Japanese yen surged around 10% in July potentially marking the end of a multi year bull trend. • Markets expectation's of FED-BOJ policies convergence, especially after yesterday's delivery of the first rate hike by the BOJ and a dovish signal by the FED. • The pair broke below the previous major resistance/support at 151.70 and traded close to the ascending...

RamziAbouAbdallah-CMT

• Dollar has been showing weakness in recent weeks as markets are expecting the FED to deliver its first rate cut in September. • The index fell from levels near 106 to 103.60 and then corrected to 104.90 (50% Fibonacci retracement). • If the jobs report tomorrow shows additional weakness, the Dollar should face selling pressure and break the previous support at...

RamziAbouAbdallah-CMT

∙ Average true range is a volatility indicator ∙ Low readings or declining ATR line shows that volatility is shrinking and the price is in a consolidation and implies a breakout or higher volatility ahead ∙ The Canadian Dollar is trading lower benefiting from a weak US Dollar but still within the 1.33-1.38 range that is holding for more than a year (since...

RamziAbouAbdallah-CMT

∙ British Pound is also benefitting from weakening USD and falling yields ∙ Bullish trend intact as long as above the ascending trend line ∙ Bulls and bears are battling through the 1.2660-70 level (September 2020 low and August 2018 low) ∙ The above level needs to be cleared for further gains through 1.2850 (200 SMA) followed by the psychological level at 1.30...

RamziAbouAbdallah-CMT

∙ EUR/USD bulls in charge after series of dismal economical data in the US which pushed investors and markets to believe that high inflation and rate hikes cycle are behind ∙ Triple bottom around 1.05 (bullish reversal) ∙ Today price pushed through 61.8% Fibonacci level of the summer decline (bullish) ∙ Buyers are approaching critical resistance levels which...

RamziAbouAbdallah-CMT

• All technical indicators are pointing to a bearish picture for the Euro • First, the price broke below an ascending channel since January • Second, the series of higher lows is being questioned as we are trading at the previous swing low at 1.0630 and bulls really need to defend that level to gain traction • Third, the price is trading below the 200 MA for more...

RamziAbouAbdallah-CMT

• BOJ/FED clear and wide divergence comes in play again reflecting on the exchange rate which closed above 146 on Friday • There is a steep and intact ascending channel giving the bulls the upper hand currently • There is no significant resistance level until the yearly highs around 152 and the psychological level at 150

RamziAbouAbdallah-CMT

• Dollar surged against all the major currencies and hit multi month high erasing most of the losses from March throughout August • The rally stalled/paused at the 78.6% Fibonacci level, so far • Bulls broke the descending channel and successfully secured a second daily close way above it, increasing the chance of further rally • Series of lower highs is almost...

RamziAbouAbdallah-CMT

• Technical long term picture for the Euro/Dollar pair is a bit mixed at the moment and at a critical area • The yearly rally from 0.95 to almost 1.13 represents the 61.8% retracement level of the 2021 decline from 1.22 to 0.95 • The above statement gets us wondering whether the 2022-2023 rally is a trend reversal and bullish trend or just a correction of the...

RamziAbouAbdallah-CMT

• Blurry technical picture for the Euro currency and the trend is turning into neutral • Bullish ascending trend line since October 2022 intact, supporting the price • We have a potential short term descending triangle, a bearish formation usually • If the sellers manage to break below the triangle, the pair might be facing a 150-200 pips move lower according to...

RamziAbouAbdallah-CMT

• Triple top formation putting pressure on the yellow metal prices • Adding to the bearish picture is the break below the ascending trend line that has been in effect since November 2022 • Bears are in control and target the 1900 support level which if broken exposes the next major level of 1800 • This decline can also be interpreted as a correction of the...

RamziAbouAbdallah-CMT

• The pair broke below the ascending trend line in May, one that has been intact since Oct 2022 • Bulls managed to break above the line in mid June but failed to sustain the move • Bulls and bears are now fighting around the trend line from above and below • Either of the two needs consecutive big bars above or below the line to get the upper hand • Immediate...

RamziAbouAbdallah-CMT

• The previous decline stopped at the 78.6% level of the rally that led to it • Current bullish impulse is targeting the 1.10-1.11 area • Bulls still got some work to do, at least get a strong move and daily close beyond 1.10 • Bullish 20 MA supporting the price today at 1.08280 • First resistance comes at 1.1010 followed by 1.11

RamziAbouAbdallah-CMT

• The pair lost more than 300 pips in 2 trading weeks • Short and medium term trends are bearish for the following reasons: 1- Prices broke below a long term ascending trend line and is trading below it for the second day 2- Prices are trading below 20,50 and 100 Moving Average 3- Prices broke below the 61.8% Fibonacci level of the latest advance 4- Prices are...

RamziAbouAbdallah-CMT

• Here is a long term view on the Dollar dating back to 2001 • It is always best to look at the primary larger trend to understand where we are in the market • The chart printed a symmetrical triangle since July 2001 with its bottom in March 2008 • The Dollar managed to breakout above the triangle in April 2022 shortly after the Ukraine-Russia war started and the...

RamziAbouAbdallah-CMT

• Despite hawkish comments from ECB members, signaling further policy tightening ahead, the Euro has lost about 150 pips in a single week • USD is showing signs of strength fueled by fears and risk-off mode increasing demand for the Dollar • Technically, the short term trend is bearish after the bears managed to break the 20 SMA • Long term, we are still in an...

RamziAbouAbdallah-CMT

• Despite hawkish message delivered by the BOE today, recent USD strength is putting pressure on the pound and all the majors • We have a couple of Dojis in the recent past sessions which showed a slowing bullish momentum followed by a big bearish candlestick today • Bears are testing the 20 SMA which has been supporting the prices for a while • While there is a...

RamziAbouAbdallah-CMT

• Gold is highly benefitting from the fear and uncertainty in the market which is likely to persist • Markets are again assuming a recession coming • Banking sector latest dilemma is adding to the fear sentiment • Rising interest rates, hard landing caused by FED continuous tightening policy along with signs of stagflation all add to the bullish price action...