RealMacro

RealMacro

I called the absolute top in SMCI back on April 4th, 2024. see chart below. This year I am once again calling a CRACK!! lower. No, it is not seasonal it is just happenstance. )) This is a very simple trade as most of my trades are. Bulls take your money and GO!!

RealMacro Updated 

RCL is in a very capital-heavy industry that is very economically sensitive. Normally I would say from erections some corrections. However this has the Eiffel Tower structure in place for a full-on reversal. That remains to be seen. For now, we look for at least a correction and go from there. Caution is in order if you are long.

RealMacro

Without Question, AAPL is the best company in the world and the most valuable. However, it means little in this economic landscape. AAPL is about to start cracking here. I usually do not post them ahead like this, but in this situation, I will break my own rules. Take your money and RUN!!! WARNING!! GTFO!

RealMacro Updated 

KRE is starting to scream Danger! Wave 3 up ending. Multiple head and shoulders (one massive) the current uptrending is now starting to CRACK! signaling that the right shoulder will now start to form. I see no benefit for bulls to hold on as risk is now very high. Furthermore, this is a bad sign for the overall economy and markets as regional banks are US...

RealMacro Updated 

I started warning about NASDAQ:NVDA back on Nov. 4th, 2024, and we all saw a healthy -30% decline since then. Updating that chart reveals a rounding topping pattern in place. Despite the 30% collapse, the pattern remains as bearish as ever. CAUTION is in order!

RealMacro Updated 

CRACK! GOOG has now broken a key area with the potential to have a huge move down. This is a very simple trade with great risk/reward. Bulls!! Caution is in order!!

RealMacro Updated 

The hardest thing is to call a short in a recession-proof stock, especially in the tech space. However, only so many dollars are available in the advertisement space, and it can't go up forever. Make this excuse at any price. As such, I rely on the chart screaming CAUTION! Again like most of my trade setups, this is a simple trade. Bulls should take their...

RealMacro Updated 

Bond traders are best when it comes to economics. Stock traders not so much. As the chart shows, historically, when rates bunch up, what follows is a recession. During the recession, the economy tries to fix itself by fanning out the yield curve, marking it cheaper to borrow and boosting the economy. The best time to be buying up stocks and going long the market...

RealMacro Updated 

While only 36% of stocks are over the 20-day MA, they are nowhere near oversold conditions. As such, there is still room for the downside. While this indicator is only suitable for short-term trading, tomorrow new making event could push markets way lower. While I would not suggest trading news events. I know some do, as such bottom picking is not advisable. CAUTION!

RealMacro

EU defense massively outperforming the US up 50% from the lows. Lockheed Martin is forced to console American allies, convincing them not to abandon the US Defense industry as Trump completely destroys it with his pro-Russia behavior. I don't see any way back to NATO normal. Trump has weaponized the US defense industry against our (former allies?) allies and...

RealMacro

This chart suggests huge long-term implications after breaking for the 2nd time this 16-year downtrend. EU since Trump took office has outperformed the US by 23%! More than half of that has occurred since the ambush on Zeleneskyy in the Oval Office. While no new high has been made yet to confirm, it is noteworthy that money may be flowing toward the EU more than...

RealMacro Updated 

Zelenskyy Oval office ambush did much more than ambush and betray an ally in support of a dictator like Putin. Betraying an ally destroyed the trust in the U.S. government. Without trust in the government, democracy cannot be, leaving only a dictatorship capable of surviving. Markets have spoken very loudly with trillions of dollars, not words out of people's...

RealMacro Updated 

As rates persist higher as FED lowers rates, small-cap companies with limited pricing power, and high debt, needing to roll over debt are in trouble. The chart is showing a CRACK!

RealMacro Updated 

EURUSD is a great setup for an excellent long-term risk-reward to the long side. A break below and hold below previous lows would be an acceptable stop-out. Reward to at least the top of the channel area. Don't overthink it just listen to the message of the market. This removes any bias you may have and makes the trade simple black or white.

RealMacro Updated 

Any Time The Dollar Gets In This Range Bad Things Happen! With the exception of the 2008 GFC which confirmed we have entered Debt Deflation (Meaning the Gov will need to borrow more and more, faster and faster without any benefit to the real economy). A strong dollar is signaling something very bad is coming. Gun to head I would guess something like an Asian...

RealMacro Updated 

Very important day for Target, as it breaks a key 50-year trendline after it has already lost -50% from ATH. Now crossing a line in of itself is not a big deal. However, how it breaks and what structure it forms after the break matters a lot. This is the 3rd time since 2017 it has tested the trend line. The last time it broke in 2008 it lost 50% of its value....

RealMacro Updated 

Inverse H&S setup in play for Gold. At the moment it is high basing. Worth keeping an eye out for a CRACK higher. Just a matter of time in my opinion.

RealMacro Updated 

The transportation average breaking the first time warned us that things were not right back in July 2024. Today we are getting yet another CRACK WARNING! The TRUMP economy will be a disaster area if he doesn't change his ways quickly. Even then it may be too late. Trust in the government has eroded. Democracy and markets rely on TRUST! Trust can not be bought,...