RealMacro

RealMacro

Fully formed rising channel ready to collapse. -Where do I begin with this chart? Wave 3 up ending. -Multiple Double Top (Daily time frame and 4 hour.) -Head and Shoulders -Multiple CRACKS already in place. -Consolidation at the bottom of the structure All screaming DANGER to bulls!!

RealMacro Updated 

Since my initial post, TSLA has lost usmuch as 24% of its total value. Do not expect new highs anytime anytime soon. At best it will flip-flop at these levels for a while. Again this is the best case scenario. Fundamentally TSLA is way overvalued. it is not even something anyone can debate rationally. Despite the horrible fundies, I did offer a buy signal...

RealMacro

As I have been saying in chat. It is hard to increase revenues, profits, and EPS without more workers producing. We have seen that reality play out in the data. Deporting prime-age labor and imposing taxes on ourselves is certainly not going to help. There is only so much output an economy is capable of. Giving tax cuts to the rich certainly won't change how...

RealMacro

RCL is in a very capital-heavy industry that is very economically sensitive. Normally I would say from erections some corrections. However this has the Eiffel Tower structure in place for a full-on reversal. That remains to be seen. For now, we look for at least a correction and go from there. Caution is in order if you are long.

RealMacro Updated 

Gold is currently hitting a key resistance area that goes back to 1980 (44 year) trendline. Some time may be required to correct and absorb this recent bull move. However, I would not be selling out of it completely if that's what one wishes to do with this information. I prefer people read this chart as a good way to set their expectations in case Gold stalls...

RealMacro Updated 

The 15 minutes of fame for TSLA & Elona is over! According to the chart. Wave 3 up, with an Eiffel Tower ending pattern. I got the top back in 2021 twice. 1st 2nd I caught the break out in 2024 I caught the top again in 2024 I am getting the end now in 2025. I am a macro guy so it won't be tomorrow but it's over. Yes, there will be some buying...

RealMacro

When a politician and their buddy start spouting nonsense about the US debt spiraling out of control, but then insist that tax cuts are great because they’ll create jobs, and all that money will somehow trickle down to the rest of us, magically boosting tax revenue to "make up" for the lost funds. Especially when that same politician was re-elected bc inflation &...

RealMacro Updated 

Here is a simple ratio chart of Home price/Household Income, YOY rate of change overlaid with plain home prices. A few things we can learn from this chart. 1. A 4 to 5 X ratio used to be the bottom and top for home prices relative to household income. the ratio in 2000 after decades of stability rose to 6X income. Today we have spiked to 7.7X income. Clearly,...

RealMacro

This is a very simple chart to read. Airlines hitting a 7-year resistance trendline. Airlines are very capital-intensive and would greatly benefit from rate cuts. Despite inflation pricing power has not risen sufficiently even nominally. Oil has not helped their situation. We have seen many airlines go bankrupt, close shop, and reduce capacity. This indirectly...

RealMacro Updated 

Usually, I do not put myself out there like this and front-run. However, I have sufficient evidence that makes me comfortable enough to make an exception this time. While I will not go into the methodology here (unfair to my subs) I will tell you that the chart is in a wave 3 up that is now head-testing the previous H&S pattern. Bulls make money Bears make money...

RealMacro Updated 

Unlike the previous call, I made in NVDA that was corrective. This double-top pattern is signaling a reversal pattern. From a trading perspective, this is a great risk/reward setup that is relatively simple. A CRACK! here will likely lead to at least the right side filling, with the potential deeper pullback (reversal) If on the other hand, it pops above...

RealMacro

Money has been around for over 10,000 years! Money is a derivative of private sector(PS) asset/labor producing. Money is not a derivative of Gov Gov borrowing money from the PS with interest to buy money without interest is a recipe for economic disaster. Gov spending currently is over 40% of GDP annually. It used to be under 10% Gov debt benefits the few...

RealMacro Updated 

Inverse H&S setup in play for Gold. At the moment it is high basing. Worth keeping an eye out for a CRACK higher. Just a matter of time in my opinion.

RealMacro

Any Time The Dollar Gets In This Range Bad Things Happen! With the exception of the 2008 GFC which confirmed we have entered Debt Deflation (Meaning the Gov will need to borrow more and more, faster and faster without any benefit to the real economy). A strong dollar is signaling something very bad is coming. Gun to head I would guess something like an Asian...

RealMacro

As rates persist higher as FED lowers rates, small-cap companies with limited pricing power, and high debt, needing to roll over debt are in trouble. The chart is showing a CRACK!

RealMacro Updated 

Unless we get one more up for a double top, mortgage rates have topped out after breaking bearish rising wedge structure. Note topped out does not mean it will collapse. it will take time for rates to drop further.

RealMacro

My initial post on INRUSD was back on Sept 2022 more than 2 years ago. My update is more of the same going forward. INR will continue to collapse despite its nominal economic growth. When the economy is very small relative to its population, the growth rate doesn't matter as if a major economy like the US has similar growth. It's like comparing apples to...

RealMacro Updated 

QQQ relative to money supply reveals that markets have never been this expensive in history, despite all the money that was pumped in over covid. Tulips! Caution is in order despite what "experts" may tell you.