RealMacro

RealMacro

One of the best ways to think about public debt is to think of oil extraction. How many barrels of oil are required to extract 1 barrel? Right now we are extracting only $0.64 cents of GDP for every new $ of added public debt. This is a horrific ROI. Can you imagine using 1 barrel of oil to extract 64% of a barrel of oil? To make matters worse it keeps falling and...

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A nice simple setup with good risk reward once this structure breaks out. This stock has the potential to run for a bit.

RealMacro Updated 

Crypto Bulls Do not want to see this key area break. Price could collapse into a long wave 3 down. Alternatively, if it holds here we could get one more up before revisiting this area again in the near future. The burden of proof is on the bulls. Better to be out of the market wishing you were in, rather than in the market wishing you were out.

RealMacro

Since my last post, Crypto Market Cap has not materially done anything except ride the bottom trendline up clinging and hoping not to collapse. I have often said a crossing of the line in of itself is not a reason to make a move. (Buy, short, stop, or take profit) This chart is a great example why as to why I have that rule. Not only does it keep violating the...

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Corporate Profits Inflation Adjusted has been falling as expected when I first published this chart. But unlike the first chart I have inflation-adjusted it this time to get a more accurate reading. Something we have not needed to do for decades. Before I continue can you chart corporate profits and like charts? Answer yes you can which is why I added the...

RealMacro

The Treasury General Account (TGA) prior to the GFC of 2008 averaged between $4 and $5 billion. When the debt ceiling people freaked when it hit $48 billion (9X more than the historic average.) LOL! Today it's $500 billion 100X more than the historic average on its way to $600! Oddly enough to MMTers the TGA has never gone negative (As my friend @HenricCont...

RealMacro

I expect Delinquency Rate On Commercial And Industrial loans to rise from historically low levels. While that may not appear as a bad thing moving into a more normal territory the impact that it will have may be a lot more than the economy can handle. I can't help but think of Hyman Minsky "Stability is inherently destabilizing" Hyman Minsky Caution is in order!

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Self explanatory. Emerging markets currencies keep printing in excess leading to devaluation for over 12 years straight. Needless to say it is now at a key area. (Red Arrow) While it has not been talked about much. This has led to a mini emerging market currency crisis. Turkey Sri Lanka Lebanon Pakistan Argentina Venezuela Egypt Russia Colombia etc.. Adding...

RealMacro Updated 

The last time World Stock Market EX US Was August 2007. Long term previous highs like this are always points of interest for a potential reversal.

RealMacro

BRICS (without Russia and South Africa) appear to be ready to make a move here as it breaks out from a long-term downtrend while bouncing off the longer bottom support area after a PSYCH play lower. This is a great risk-reward setup to catch a nice wave up. This particular setup doesn't come along very often as you can see. Make sure to follow as I will be...

RealMacro

The US Economy Is 25% Of the Global GDP with just 334 million (4.25% of the global population) This is extremely important to understand because it gives you the context required to better understand so many various narratives that are pushed all over media and politics. Here are some examples China has 1.45 billion people (18.5% of the global population)...

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Solana maybe be breaking a key area here for a bigger move up. I am not a big fan of price breaking a line in of it self is a automatics buy. But it is the time to start paying attention for a good risk reward setup.

RealMacro Updated 

While this is a chart that hardly anyone looks at bc it is a given that stocks only go up. You should pay attention to it. Inflation-adjusted SPX is now breaking a channel that has not broken since the Bretton Woods Agreement. The price of SPX has to really explode higher to overcome inflation or inflation has to crack rapidly or both. In a world of trillions...

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I have nailed PAVE twice before to the short side. Now we have a wonderful opportunity to take it to the long side as it is on the verge of breaking out. PAVE is a U.S. Infrastructure Development ETF I will spare you all the cute stories about infrastructure. You can find many of them on social media and pick what you like best. As far as the chart goes this is...

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For the past two decades, corporate profits have grown at a faster rate due to excessive government deficits, Zero Interest Rate Policy (ZIRP), and Quantitative Easing ( QE ). However, this prolonged growth has not been without its hiccups. There were two major corrections, one in 2008 to 2009 which resulted in a 63% drop in corporate profits and a severe...

RealMacro Updated 

MATIC Bulls do not want to see this H&S at a Double Top Fail out of the Bearish up channel.

RealMacro

We have seen this movie before in REITS. We have yet another fully formed valid Bearish flag that bulls do not want to see a break from as we come into a key area.

RealMacro Updated 

Nasdaq has been driven by FOMO in 7 stocks. Based on social media MEME type silly pumping in AI, FED rate pause and better then "expected" (but not better) earnings. While I have no problem with a bull run, I do have a problem with the way bulls ran it. Meaning, moves that are designed to provoke emotions are rarely if ever trustworthy. From an economic stand...