RealMacro

RealMacro Updated 

NVDA has had a massive move while the fundamentals have done little to support it. The chart is showing a simple trade setup short on a break of the rising wedge. If true the could have wider implications for the Nasdaq as a whole and markets.

RealMacro

I posted this chart back in Jan 2023 but for some reason, it failed to update properly. So I am reposting this chart in a more simple form in hopes it updates in the future. Home prices to median household income have hit new highs at 7.8 times and peaked out. The ratio is now rolling over and it seems very abrupt relative to previous tops. But unlike previous...

RealMacro Updated 

Airlines are way overvalued at the moment. That does not mean the ETF cannot go higher. But if you are long airlines I would suggest taking profits for the following reasons. 50% of all pilots are out of work and grounded. If airlines were to start to return to normal then they should be hiring right now for the summer season. It takes time to interview, train,...

RealMacro Updated 

This is yet another breakdown in the chart. Even with the same pax prior to Covid & more debt with no pricing power = Zombie

RealMacro

Endless trillion of money printing has been ongoing for a long time now. The dangers of this has been the normalization in people's minds that it is somehow natural, good, simulative and healthy. As the charts shows in reality it has never been so unnatural, bad, surprising and unhealthy. During this time we have given a voice to crazy economists (Ie #MMT) that...

RealMacro Updated 

To understand emerging markets you must first understand what the dollar (DXY) is doing. In this chart, I show you the relationship between the two. You can see several key dates where reversal took place. To get a handle on what drives the dollar (see post below) You need a good understanding of how the monetary system works, macroeconomics, FOREX, and the Bond...

RealMacro Updated 

While I am not one to really look at sentiment or put call ratios bc for my style they are useless. Unless they are at extremes. Then I pay a little attention to them. What concerns me is not the ratio but the moving quarterly average level of the ratio. When Gov't back stops all risk to investors while running around and saying there is not bubble keep going!...

RealMacro Updated 

Again unfortunately I could not share this info with you all bc of my subscription service. However, I can share it now so as for you all to learn from it. BKC (Bare Knuckle Charting) in my view is essential and a great addition for all investor/traders to learn from. No one chat or piece of data is the holy grail of analysis. This particular chart shows the...

RealMacro

US Tax Revenue has exploded by 43% since 2020 to almost $5 trillion annually. So far 2023 the US Gov't has collected $2.686 Trillion and still it has to borrow more to meet its obligations. While Real GDP has only risen 4.5%. #MMT gets it wrong again. More is never enough! The more we print the more we have to print with no real (inflation-adjusted) economic...

RealMacro Updated 

You haven't witnessed madness until you've seen MMT Mosler's post completely wrong, yet people continue to believe him. That is crazy. Never Mix your politics with economics. Especially if you are trading and investing.

RealMacro Updated 

A simple short setup breaking down from a bear flag. However, if the markets don't turn south the trade will not be as profitable. Buying close the the bottom trendline is Ideal.

RealMacro Updated 

IBM is on the verge of breaking down from a rising wedge. It is a simple short setup from a key area.

RealMacro

When trying to understand FX trading one first needs to understand the economics of it all. FX became popular bc back in the day there were no trading fees ($29.95 -$19.95 $11.95 etc..) only spreads. People didn't understand the economics but were told that TA alone was enough. So they all went out and gladly blew out their accounts as leverage was a new animal...

RealMacro Updated 

Let's make a sincere attempt to understand and address the "banking crisis". For those who have lost money, it's a true crisis. However, for those who have not yet lost money, it represents a necessary purification of the regional banking system. Looking at the charts, it was evident well before the crisis occurred that a clear head and shoulders pattern had...

RealMacro

Chinese Yuan money supply is double the US at $40 trillion with no end in sight. (Note the Chinese Yuan in the chart is adjusted for the exchange rate to the $) BRIC's are a fantasy as I have mentioned before. If you have a problem with US printing you will really have a problem with China Printing Press! Recently Russia walked away from India and broke off...

RealMacro Updated 

Minimum payments rising removes money from consumption. While many points to the delinquency rate being low my response to that is "it works great until it doesn't". By the time delinquency spike, it will be too late. Credit cards are Americans' savings. A hiccup in the economy will cause pneumonia in my view.

RealMacro

Jet Fuel is still too higher relative to Airfare. Borrowing costs for a very capital-intensive industry have risen significantly relative to 2019. The cost of labor has also risen with pilot shortages. Passenger loads have only now returned to pre covid 19 levels. Lastly, number of shares outstanding has risen significantly as well. In my view, airfare has to...

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RealMacro Updated 

Accuracy and consistency matter to develop trust that I will always try my absolute best to give the best analysis and simplest trade setups that I can. :)