RealMacro

RealMacro

Tax revenues in the past were a good indicator for a recession. However after the massive $10 trillion of added public debt loans $9 trillion in QE increasing the money supply by 43% this indicator may be correcting for distortion rather than giving us an actual valid economic signal. However we should keep an eye on it as it is heading in the wrong direction. If...

RealMacro

Bulls certainly don't want this key area to break. While QQQ has risen of late the rest of the markets have not. Particularly value stocks have been underperforming vs growth. Unless we see that trend reverse we are left with two basic options. Value will start to outperform to the upside or Growth will start to correct to the downside faster. What does that...

RealMacro Updated 

Simplicity is my friend. Huger bear flag that is about to break offering us a great risk-reward. Not much more to say about that. BTW This trade was founded by one of my followers. ;)

RealMacro Updated 

#MMT Told you that QE is not inflationary. It is simply "Reserves in the banking system". Then they told you "In an #MMT world...." Unfortunately, the self-evident data you see in the chart completely destroys their silly little theories and models. I want to be clear, QE does not increase the public debt. However, it does change the form of money from a bond...

RealMacro Updated 

Back On March 24th, I started sounding the alarm that the latest BTC move-up was in trouble. Since then we have seen the price action struggle. Now we see all that volatility has now produced well-formed head and shoulders pattern that bulls do not want to see fail.

RealMacro Updated 

Gold bulls after several attempts to push higher appear to be failing. Gold is now in danger of breaking down from a key area. While price within the channel is still considered bullish. Breaking it could lead to much lower prices. Caution is in order.

RealMacro

The Nasdaq is now at the highest level relative to the World Stock Market Cap since the 2000 Dot Com days. We are now in Euphoria land. Price is what you pay value is what you get.

RealMacro Updated 

I first started warning that NVDA was getting tired back on April 12, 20223 in this chart Since then the H&S pattern did not trigger a short or sell depending on which side you are on. Instead, Price Broke the rising wedge via time and was " Head Tested " leading to another bearish structure a shallower rising wedge. If that fails it would trigger a trade...

RealMacro Updated 

NVDA has had a massive move while the fundamentals have done little to support it. The chart is showing a simple trade setup short on a break of the rising wedge. If true the could have wider implications for the Nasdaq as a whole and markets.

RealMacro

I posted this chart back in Jan 2023 but for some reason, it failed to update properly. So I am reposting this chart in a more simple form in hopes it updates in the future. Home prices to median household income have hit new highs at 7.8 times and peaked out. The ratio is now rolling over and it seems very abrupt relative to previous tops. But unlike previous...

RealMacro Updated 

Airlines are way overvalued at the moment. That does not mean the ETF cannot go higher. But if you are long airlines I would suggest taking profits for the following reasons. 50% of all pilots are out of work and grounded. If airlines were to start to return to normal then they should be hiring right now for the summer season. It takes time to interview, train,...

RealMacro Updated 

This is yet another breakdown in the chart. Even with the same pax prior to Covid & more debt with no pricing power = Zombie

RealMacro

Endless trillion of money printing has been ongoing for a long time now. The dangers of this has been the normalization in people's minds that it is somehow natural, good, simulative and healthy. As the charts shows in reality it has never been so unnatural, bad, surprising and unhealthy. During this time we have given a voice to crazy economists (Ie #MMT) that...

RealMacro Updated 

To understand emerging markets you must first understand what the dollar (DXY) is doing. In this chart, I show you the relationship between the two. You can see several key dates where reversal took place. To get a handle on what drives the dollar (see post below) You need a good understanding of how the monetary system works, macroeconomics, FOREX, and the Bond...

RealMacro Updated 

While I am not one to really look at sentiment or put call ratios bc for my style they are useless. Unless they are at extremes. Then I pay a little attention to them. What concerns me is not the ratio but the moving quarterly average level of the ratio. When Gov't back stops all risk to investors while running around and saying there is not bubble keep going!...

RealMacro Updated 

Again unfortunately I could not share this info with you all bc of my subscription service. However, I can share it now so as for you all to learn from it. BKC (Bare Knuckle Charting) in my view is essential and a great addition for all investor/traders to learn from. No one chat or piece of data is the holy grail of analysis. This particular chart shows the...

RealMacro

US Tax Revenue has exploded by 43% since 2020 to almost $5 trillion annually. So far 2023 the US Gov't has collected $2.686 Trillion and still it has to borrow more to meet its obligations. While Real GDP has only risen 4.5%. #MMT gets it wrong again. More is never enough! The more we print the more we have to print with no real (inflation-adjusted) economic...

RealMacro Updated 

You haven't witnessed madness until you've seen MMT Mosler's post completely wrong, yet people continue to believe him. That is crazy. Never Mix your politics with economics. Especially if you are trading and investing.