Back on Dec 15, 2021I had posted this nice risk-reward short setup. If it builds pressure down here at support expect further deterioration in price to previous lows. I am sure those super subprime Xmas loans are fine! (Sarcasm)
U.S. Real GDP (Inflation-Adjusted) has only grown $296 Billion in 2 years. After adding $8 trillion public liabilities Helicopter money $5 trillion in QE ZIRP (Zero interest rate policy) The "cares Act", "Stimulus" etc.. horrible ROI. Here is why No Gov't can print VALUE (productivity) for a currency it prints. next time you hear a politician or FED official...
Are we going to blame Labor costs on the supply chain as well? Labor force participation is in the toilet. Why does this matter to you? Bc Zombie companies who do not have pricing power will not be able to pass on the costs, profitable companies will suffer margin contraction sending earnings yield south, and if wages rise inflation won't go away. That means the...
One of my oldest and favorite charts to monitor. As you can see from 2000 on everything changed. The equilibrium was disturbed and ever since we are all over the place. If you observed this chart In 2006/07 you would have known we were on an unsustainable path as the household debt was out of control. Fast forward to today and we once again find ourselves on...
SOL broke long term structure via time rather than price. While that is a good sign bulls don't want this smaller structure to break this key area.
The law of diminishing returns is very clear in this chart. The more private money created the more money that needs to be created to have the same impact on the economy. Diminishing marginal returns of economic stimulus from monetary policy and ZIRP. The real federal funds rate at zero or negative appears to be effective at stimulating financial markets but has...
Spanish 10 year yield is now deep in negative territory. They never saw inflation coming. I first started warning about inflation in the US back in April of this year and posted this chart in May. While we have heard many excuses over the last several months as to why there was inflation none of them got the excessive deficits, with Zero interest rates as the...
There is a reason why "old" economics works and "modern" doesn't. Old is time-tested and learned through countless mistakes of the past. Modern is feel-good, wishing and hoping that this time it's different. I also want to add the term "incubator economist". Theories, models work really well on the inside of an incubator but not outside in the real world. That...
Caution in all asset classes remains. How much risk are you taking on for how much reward you are expecting to acquire? Keep asking yourself that question.
More debt - lower airfare prices - lower load factor- higher Jet fuel costs is a recipe for disaster. Factor in high unit labor costs thx to 6.8% Inflation, higher interest rates. and the situation even gets worse. Even if Airfare prices rose to 2019 levels. A perfect example of what a Zombie company is. Seeking to stay afloat and pay down debt rather than grow...
This recent drop in cryptos should be of no surprise to anyone who has followed my pubic diary here on tradingvew. Crypto after crypto I have published short setups which should have indicated to you that I was no longer bullish in this asset class. The risk was too high for the reward we seek.
I thought we were tapering are we not?!? The Fed added $126 Billion to the balance sheet the past 2 weeks in time for Santa rally ensuring a record high $SPX. +$33B added this week for a new high of $8.79Trillion!!
As increased deficits, public and private debt have risen and economic growth, interest rates have fallen, so has the dollar index. We have gone from a high of 130 to a record low of 70. No economy (no matter how large) can print borrow and import to prosperity. No gov't can print value for digits, yet you are constantly told that Gov't is "stimulating", it will...
To my favorite GME trolls who posted incoherent nonsense! ENJOY! Lesson Learned!
While no one indicator is ever the holy grail of analysis. We do need to pay attention to certain key pieces of the puzzle. While we can make up all sorts of cute little stories as to why this is occurring, the fact is it is occurring. This chart happens to top right as reverse repo began April 2021 When the 2 year yield started to rise And when Bank...
While I am hesitant in publishing this, the chart is the chart and Coin is at a key area for a nice risk/reward setup. As mentioned before if Coin is more of a loooooooong term play if you decide to buy it. In this case, it seems a nice pop for a correction may be in order.
Things are not what they seem often. That is why you need to learn how to do your own analysis.