RealMacro

RealMacro

China Tech (CQQQ) has been in a massive bull channel for 8 years. Every 25% drop or more has been a buying opportunity. Will it be the case this time? Higher rates in the US with a stronger $ are typically bad for Emerging markets. Is China still an emerging economy is debatable, but my view is higher rates in US attracts $s leaving other economies fighting for $...

RealMacro

With capacity Utilization falling for 54 years and counting, Margin debt in the stock market is hitting all-time highs. With record deficits, record net imports. Economic charts in the link below. www.patreon.com

RealMacro

After TSLA hitting my target of $850 it has since died off from the $900 all-time highs down -35%. Here is the post from Feb 22 I also posted the same day the TSLA - NDX Ratio topping. Prior to that on Dec 10 I started to question if TSLA was getting tired? hence the grey upper trendline which indicates an invlaid trendline as it is still in progress TSLA...

RealMacro Updated 

After the initial smaller lower low M pattern that dropped 90%, we now have a bigger M pattern.

RealMacro Updated 

NDX Breaking out provided it can push above and stay above previous highs.

RealMacro Updated 

AMT is one of those recession-proof stocks with a long history of steady gains. A breakout here could result in a 34% rise in price. Again the market is funky right now chopping all over the place. if any stock has a chance to push higher its AMT

RealMacro Updated 

There is evidence (which I will not get into all of them here) to suggest Feb was a top in NDX. One piece of evidence is the bigger Head and Shoulder structures at a top are usually a reversal pattern as bulls and bears fight it out. Multiple heads and shoulders (as seen in the chart) increase the likelihood that the bigger structure is valid and a top is in....

RealMacro Updated 

Back on March 5th I posted this simple setup long in USDCAD. The trade never triggered since it never broke out. But little has changed for the trade, in fact, it gives us an opportunity to buy it at a better price on the break. With the dollar in favor due to fear (See chart and comments below) lately, the trade looks solid.

RealMacro Updated 

The chart is self-explanatory I would just like to add a couple of things here. There is never one reason why something moves. For example 1. Dollar rises bc the economy is improving. 2. Bc of fear 3. Rates higher than other competitors 4. Monetary inflation or disinflation In the chart, we see a number of these factors that take front and center...

RealMacro

After breaking the rising wedge SNAP chat has been now collapsed 35% after completing a break test go. Will other Tech stocks follow?

RealMacro Updated 

BTC has had a phenomenal run! Is it over in the short term and heading lower? No one knows, but we can manage risk. 1. It has broken a 6-month trade line. 2. Price remains solid above the quarterly trend. 3. it's "Up too high" "it's not a coin" is not analysis, It's vague hunches and feelings which are worthless. 4. A mini completed 3 wave structure bull flag...

RealMacro Updated 

VT is World ETF & VEU is EX-US. Since 2008 With VT has greatly outperformed up 100% while VEU (EX-US) is only up 19%. Clearly, large excessive deficits and QE have flowed into the US since 2011. Now we are seeing 2 possible bearish structures. VT has a lower high possible M pattern, while VEU has a Head and shoulders pattern. This week will be important to see...

RealMacro

Keep it simple with good risk reward management!

RealMacro Updated 

Great risk/reward trade in BABA for bulls side. A drop below would be a great short for bears. But as the rule goes the trend is your friend bias is up

RealMacro Updated 

There have been two main reasons when VNQ has outperformed SPY. 1. When Real Estate was the hottest thing since sliced bread 2. When SPY Has gone into a sideways or down market With Real Estate prices being hot while commercial beaten up VNQ net has out gains but subpar to SPY. That seems to be changing based on this ratio setup. I venture to say it will likely...

RealMacro Updated 

Commodities! Here is a chart showing TIPS (Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities) vs TLT long-dated bonds. As inflation fears rise TIPS outperforms TLT . (Color RED) As the CRB commodity Index rose (Color Blue) TIPS outperformed TLT . Now that the CRB INDEX is hitting 12-year resistance area it is likely to at least pause along with inflation fears. If the...

RealMacro Updated 

Beyond the classic double top, KOSS is now breaking key support. Again this is a simple risk-reward. But as we have seen for weeks now the market is dead. Meaning chopping back and forth. breaks that should normally follow-through aren't. Knowing the market you are in is vital even with simple risk-reward setups.

RealMacro

After multiple attempts to warn the GME crowd and countless back and forth chats GME has collapsed more than 40% since my 2nd short in GME on March 10th Here is my first short FEB 2nd I hope those who strongly disagreed with my calls learned something from this experience. 1. Never fall for cute stories and lose your hard-earned money 2. The topping M...