RealMacro

RealMacro Updated 

Back on March 5th I posted this simple setup long in USDCAD. The trade never triggered since it never broke out. But little has changed for the trade, in fact, it gives us an opportunity to buy it at a better price on the break. With the dollar in favor due to fear (See chart and comments below) lately, the trade looks solid.

RealMacro Updated 

The chart is self-explanatory I would just like to add a couple of things here. There is never one reason why something moves. For example 1. Dollar rises bc the economy is improving. 2. Bc of fear 3. Rates higher than other competitors 4. Monetary inflation or disinflation In the chart, we see a number of these factors that take front and center...

RealMacro

After breaking the rising wedge SNAP chat has been now collapsed 35% after completing a break test go. Will other Tech stocks follow?

RealMacro Updated 

BTC has had a phenomenal run! Is it over in the short term and heading lower? No one knows, but we can manage risk. 1. It has broken a 6-month trade line. 2. Price remains solid above the quarterly trend. 3. it's "Up too high" "it's not a coin" is not analysis, It's vague hunches and feelings which are worthless. 4. A mini completed 3 wave structure bull flag...

RealMacro Updated 

VT is World ETF & VEU is EX-US. Since 2008 With VT has greatly outperformed up 100% while VEU (EX-US) is only up 19%. Clearly, large excessive deficits and QE have flowed into the US since 2011. Now we are seeing 2 possible bearish structures. VT has a lower high possible M pattern, while VEU has a Head and shoulders pattern. This week will be important to see...

RealMacro

Keep it simple with good risk reward management!

RealMacro Updated 

Great risk/reward trade in BABA for bulls side. A drop below would be a great short for bears. But as the rule goes the trend is your friend bias is up

RealMacro Updated 

There have been two main reasons when VNQ has outperformed SPY. 1. When Real Estate was the hottest thing since sliced bread 2. When SPY Has gone into a sideways or down market With Real Estate prices being hot while commercial beaten up VNQ net has out gains but subpar to SPY. That seems to be changing based on this ratio setup. I venture to say it will likely...

RealMacro Updated 

Commodities! Here is a chart showing TIPS (Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities) vs TLT long-dated bonds. As inflation fears rise TIPS outperforms TLT . (Color RED) As the CRB commodity Index rose (Color Blue) TIPS outperformed TLT . Now that the CRB INDEX is hitting 12-year resistance area it is likely to at least pause along with inflation fears. If the...

RealMacro Updated 

Beyond the classic double top, KOSS is now breaking key support. Again this is a simple risk-reward. But as we have seen for weeks now the market is dead. Meaning chopping back and forth. breaks that should normally follow-through aren't. Knowing the market you are in is vital even with simple risk-reward setups.

RealMacro

After multiple attempts to warn the GME crowd and countless back and forth chats GME has collapsed more than 40% since my 2nd short in GME on March 10th Here is my first short FEB 2nd I hope those who strongly disagreed with my calls learned something from this experience. 1. Never fall for cute stories and lose your hard-earned money 2. The topping M...

RealMacro Updated 

US OIL is coming into multiple resistance area. Not only is demand not there to support prices (Airlines, working from home as examples) Higher rates, stronger dollar, & pre covid price benchmark with 3.4% unemployment do not support rational price levels. Key word RATIONAL. I remain bearish in oil.

RealMacro

With rising long-term rates so low, extremely low inventories with very favorable commodity prices (till recently) and very favorable lending conditions pushing home prices higher it is not unreasonable for prices to fall with higher rising long rates, commodities, and increased supply. Though bank lending should remain very favorable. See chart below. Banks...

RealMacro Updated 

The chart setup indicating a possible breakout bad for the USD. Very bad! Keep printing!

RealMacro Updated 

SPY rising long term wedge is starting to falter.

RealMacro Updated 

CRB is coming into major resistance area and likely to reverse in the near future. Implications beyond the obvious commodities are Stronger dollar Lower 10 Year Yield A Solid breakout from the long term downward channel, would require a high base reversal Bull flag of sorts. Build some kind of pressure followed by a breakout. FYI I am not in the inflation camp.

RealMacro Updated 

As the dollar is breaking out from key area, Copper is double topping.

RealMacro Updated 

Nice risk/reward in this bull flag. While other commodities are hitting resistance areas, Gold has been correcting. Nice add to a portfolio on a bounce here.