RogueEconomics

RogueEconomics

We appear to be getting near the end of the correction on HBAR/USD. We see a big 4h falling wedge pattern and a bullish convergence to compliment this. I do think we're nearing the end of this correction. Watch carefully over the coming days.

RogueEconomics

Seems to me that the HBAR correction we're watching is forming a falling wedge down into what the volume profile shows as a very significant volume spike. Notice as well, the wedge pattern is forming off a very significant dip (2nd biggest in approx 12 months) and this very low RSI reading is unlikely to be broken. If HBAR breaks the 18 cents mark but puts in a...

RogueEconomics

I don't trade XRP as a rule BUT... I have noticed this very large triangle pattern here. This should serve as an indicator for the rest of the market - hence it's interest to me. This can only be a wave 4, which means we should expect further upside. In fact on a speculative basis, as I sketch here, I suspect that this is only a subwave of something much...

RogueEconomics

Short-term falling wedge on HBAR USD. There is a more obvious bullish convergence pattern on smaller timeframes but trading view is rubbish and won't let me publish short-term charts to demonstrate this. However, if that finer-res convergence pattern persists, I expect it to migrate onto bigger timeframes soon. I'd look for a serious break of the trendlines to...

RogueEconomics

This looks like a diamond pattern on AMZN. I have taken puts here with the stop just a little way above (it would have to break this level to invalidate the pattern in my view). The diamond pattern is clear. There is the initial high, the low, the higher high, the lower low, and the return to the original range. I have no idea why or what fundamental reason...

RogueEconomics

There is an interesting divergence between Claudia Sahm's real-time recession indicator and the FED's own recession probability indicator. Historically, if we look at this chart, we get a rise in both together into a recession. This time, the Sahm-Rule recession indicator has tripped the threshold at which recessions usually occur, but without a corresponding...

RogueEconomics

I am seeing what I consider could be a triangle correction along an ABCDE pattern on SPX (chart 2). Or at least a standard compression correction along an ABC (chart 1). As we know, in Elliot Wave, you only get triangles in Wave 4. So I am pondering if we are about to see a big run up to Wave 5 which would melt-up the SPX to 6000 or higher (I'm not actually...

RogueEconomics

I have noticed that the rally since 2022 lows is forming itself into a decent rising wedge pattern on the SPX. There is also a small RSI divergence in place that has since migrated to the hourly time frames. This could be indicative. There is also a disappointing looking NFP report in the pipeline this week. I have no active trade, and I will not take a...

RogueEconomics Updated 

The "I'm batman" chart pattern is something I've seen a few times over the years and it's always been a pattern that is highly correlated with cucking over-eager shorts that don't put enough effort into their analysis. It consists of a rally, a dip, a strange symmetrical twin-peak pattern with a spike that was sold down between them, and then an extended rally....

RogueEconomics

Firstly, I believe that AAPL, much like SPX, is setting itself up for a Wave 4 correction. A few points on this. In principle, because my count includes a relatively simple zig-zag for SubW2, we should have something different such as I mention to comply with the principle of elliot wave alternation. This could be a triangle pattern or a flat correction for...

RogueEconomics

I recently noted that my cyclical Elliot Wave count coincides with the significant volume areas on a volume profile for the ES! futures contract (S&P500). So, from the top: 1. is the recent volume high. An influx of volume into the market that has driven the nasty corrective grind since the ultimate top. 2. is the value area high as calculated by the volume...

RogueEconomics

This chart is in "The Last Call" - a book by Elliot Wave International leader (and author of "The Wave Principle" book). Prechter uses a composite of PPI, British stock prices and US stock prices to create this chart. The count Prechter applies suggests we are nearing the end of the Grand Supercycle - a complete 5-wave pattern that extends back to...

RogueEconomics

I have to give credit to Julian Brigden for this outline. So please look up his recent Blockworks interview on youtube. I am happy to further develop on his observation by pointing out that what he observed as a "crash pattern" is in fact a diamond reversal pattern. I enclose a comparison to what I consider the "classic" manifestation of a diamond reversal which...

RogueEconomics

Here, you can see the grand supercycle wave count that myself and many other elliot wave theorists hold to. I find it to be a fairly obvious wave count. Especially because, on this scale "corrections" are associated with very severe recessions which involve asset bubbles bursting. So we can see that 2 was the great depression, and 4 was the dotcom bubble and...

RogueEconomics Updated 

This pattern on TSLA fits the outline for a diamond reversal that is referenced on Investopedia. It has all the "classical" facets of a diamond reversal which is a high (A), a low (C) a higher-high. Furthermore, this is happening alongside a very similar pattern on NFLX and some bearish patterns on many other stocks. Similar forms also occurred on SPX in...

RogueEconomics Updated 

I believe that CRSP (Crispr Therapeutics) is about to undergo a severe correction soon. I scaled into this stock during the latter part of 2022 and the first part of 2023 and it is up nearly 70% and has generated about 40% of pure alpha for me relative to the SPX. So this has been an amazing performer for my total portfolio. I believe this run may be nearing a...

RogueEconomics

This shows a huge rising wedge alongside what appears to be a full supercyclical wave count. Alternative counts exist for this but the primary one of interest still puts the DAX on a Wave 4 endpont with the potential to be cut in half. I'm sceptical of thse however because as you can see we have an enormous RSI divergence from the 2000-era boom to present along...

RogueEconomics

So basically, I have been eying Apple for a while... and I noticed today that the pattern sinjce the market top in late 2021 appears to resemble an EXPANDING DIAGONAL which is a somewhat uncommon elliot wave chart pattern. The rally from the lows in early 2023 also is clearly a zig-zag up into the resistance zone at the all-time-high. There also appears to be...