RogueEconomics

RogueEconomics

As people may be aware, I have been tracking what looks like a bearish diamond on SPX. Naturally, these have a certain failure rate (as do all technical analysis forms) however this does not mean that they should not be treated with caution when trading and it does not mean that the potential for a risk-off move should be dismissed. Furthermore, there is a...

RogueEconomics Updated 

Brent oil shows a clear pattern of developing bearish divergence on MACD vs. price when the dollar rallies. These have preceded oil routs 3 times historically. And yes, we have one now. I should point out that Brent oil is also at the top of an important historical trend which consists of lower highs and lower lows over the long run. The resistance trend has...

RogueEconomics

We have a clear example of a rising wedge on XOP Oil Exploration & Drilling ETF. There is a similar wedge also forming on VanEck Oil Services ETF. This suggests risk-off is coming to the oil markets soon. My suggested timeline for resolution is 14th Feb. So one week away. I strongly suggest that this may be part of a broader down move coming to oil and gas as...

RogueEconomics

During a discussion with a contact, I pointed out that watching the FED is one of the easy ways to forecast volatility. Being specific here, FED policy on interest rates is a key predictor of market volatility. To summarise, Federal Reserve interest rates induce tightening at institutions. This in turn causes credit crunches out in the real markets as...

RogueEconomics

AAPL is showing a clear (and very large) rising wedge on top of a pattern of declining volume. The wedge doesn't extend beyond May 2022 and this seems to set the show for a Q1 risk-off manouvre marketwide.

RogueEconomics

There is a shooting star candlestick developing on the SPX monthly chart (I use SPX500USD for my charting here). Because we are at the end of november, unless we have significant amounts of upward momentum soon (I.e. on Monday and Tuesday) then this will leave a shooting star as November's candlestick. This is a very bearish signal. You can see from here...

RogueEconomics

It looks to me like there is a clear fractal format of the post-2020 gold market on the SPDR GLD etf chart. Form 1 shows a very large bull-flag type form which resolved beginning of 2021 with a roughly 13% upmove. This has regressed into a smaller fractal copy (about 25% smaller) of this form from Q1 2021 to present day which appears to be resolving down to S1...

RogueEconomics Updated 

There is a clear pattern of pseudo-diamond forms going back to at least the beginning of 2021. They occur at regular 30 day / 4 week intervals. I strongly suspect there is some sort of fractal dynamic in-play. These forms always failed because the market always rallied at the last moment and violated the form by exceeding the high at the mid-point of the...

RogueEconomics

This is an update of the "Possible Diamond Reversal" idea. This is clearly a fractal diamond regression. The same setup occurred recently on Bitcoin. I added the 100 Day Moving Average as this seems to coincide where I placed the lower bounding trendline which I extrapolated from the secondary trend. This trendline goes back to the March 2020 recovery. Most...

RogueEconomics

Appears to be a very large flag-type formation with hidden bullish divergence on the RSI. The RSI is moving lower and lower into oversold territory while the price is steadily gaining. This is suggestive of building strength within DXY as DXY has held onto all of it's gains since the end of May 2021. I'm calling one more dip before the rally but this is really...

RogueEconomics

Title is self-explanatory. A bearish doji-looking candlestick formation. Combined with very toppy RSI metrics. All taking place on the weekly chart.

RogueEconomics

Apparently a bear-flag emerging on iShares MSCI China. Should be ready by the end of September. I expect this to resolve down to 54.11 roughly where support from 2020 sits by the end of 2021.

RogueEconomics

Appears to be a fractal bull-flag formation on SPDR gold daily chart. Also appears to be following a parallel channel. Two distinct forms since 2020 Form 1 began with the kung flu crisis in April 2020. Hit the bottom of the channel at S1 (156.82) and rallied by 13.82%. It failed to breach the channel upper-boundary and began form 2 from there. Form 2 began...

RogueEconomics

Long-term trade outline. This will unfold at some point in the future. A potentially very big rising wedge on AAPL. Significant because it is occurring across the procession of all-time highs. Not sure of resolution date. Difficult to estimate because of sheer scale and how early on in the form this analysis is. Trying to estimate it out using EW but count...

RogueEconomics

It seems to me now that Bitcoin is undergoing an even bigger fractal than I originally thought. These are based on a diamond formation (which is bearish in a majority of circumstances) combined with a very similar patterns of peaks and troughs on the run-up to the diamond form. Multiple options for how to play this. I'm considering attempting to play short at...

RogueEconomics

There is what appears to be a diamond reversal setting up on the 15m SPX500 chart. The image on the left shows the outline of the diamond reversal. The lines I drew on the chart outline the form which appears to be taking place. #watchout

RogueEconomics

GBP/USD over the long-run shows a clear falling wedge. Not only this, but it shows clear correlation to the time-cycle diagram represented in cyan. Additionally, the drips in the cycle also conform to a Fibonacci time-zone outline. I strongly suggest that the 3 factors outlined here suggest that we are due a GBP pullback over the next 2 - 3 years thereafter...

RogueEconomics

This is an update to my idea here www.tradingview.com Please read this first to get a more close-up idea of what actually happened with the recent move lower. Basically, I now think the fractal diamond regression highlighted in the above idea is part of a broader bearish outline. IF I AM RIGHT ABOUT A BEAR FLAG FORMING AFTER THE RECENT DOWNMOVE.... then...