RomanoRnr

RomanoRnr

Whenever a resolution to the Russia-Ukraine war materializes, agricultural restoration will be one of the first and most critical steps, not just for Ukraine's battered fields but also for Russia's export infrastructure. Both countries are central to global wheat markets, and reviving output means ramping up fertilizer usage, especially potash. That sets the...

RomanoRnr

MSCI estimated fair P/E multiple for China could rise from 11x to 12-13x if China successfully manages to bank on AI If the market re‐rates Chinese companies due to possibly banking on AI both foreign and domestic investors could allocate more capital to Chinese equities ~$200bn of net portfolio flows for Chinese stocks

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SX5E (Euro Stoxx 50) index, which broke above a prolonged consolidation range The breakout shows a shift in market structure. Previous resistance may now act as support Buy dips near the breakout area as the market often retests previous resistance before continuing higher

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### Why is DeepSeek a Game Changer for Apple ** credits to alexocheema on twitter Apple might not be the first name you think of when it comes to AI hardware, but their silicon is surprisingly well-suited for running massive models like DeepSeek V3 and R1—at a fraction of the cost of traditional GPUs. #### **How Apple’s M2 Ultra Stacks Up Against the...

RomanoRnr

Gold usually trades with an upside bias it's a go-to hedge against all sorts of risks such as inflation,market crashes, geopolitical messes, you name it. When gold rips higher, its volatility (GVZ) tends to spike However, this latest rally has been strong without being crazy So GVZ (Gold vol) hasn’t gone wild yet

RomanoRnr

Semiconductor ETF breaking out of the triangle, also bounced of the 200-day moving average

RomanoRnr

The Australian Dollar seems to be edging higher over the next few quarters. By the end of 2024, we could see AUD/USD hovering around 0.69 and perhaps 0.72 somewhere, most likely late in 2025. But it will be a long road that takes time. One of the biggest problems is the lack of demand for Australia's iron ore, driven by weak global markets that continue to weigh...

RomanoRnr

Word of caution: In all fairness, I did get stopped last night So perhaps I am wrong again, as I may underestimate a potential year-to-end rally (elections, they probably don't want to rock the boat) JPMorgan turned bullish after yesterday's FOMC. Goldman Sachs & Bank of America are also calling for a year-to-end rally. So, take this trade with a grain of salt.

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Short Nasdaq It's still in a downtrend but the moves are erratic both ways due to negative gamma regime

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Only bear meme I get left for technicals I don't know if "the top" is in yet Or it just tops out on Friday the 13th or Friday, October 20th (Option Expiration)

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This summer, quiet markets favored the carry trade. Popular funding currencies here are still the JPY and the CNY. The carry trade involves borrowing low-interest currency and investing in high-interest currency to profit from interest rate differential and exchange rate movements. Traders often use JPY and CNY as funding currencies due to their low-interest...

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Brent crude oil had quite the month in July, climbing from $74 per barrel all the way up to $85. This price jump came from Russia cutting back on exports to Saudi Arabia, trimming all their oil production. Still, I don't think the price is going to burst out of its range of $72 - $88 per barrel yet. What's interesting is the strengthening of "crack spreads"...

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The minutes from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) showed the Board was leaning towards a rate hike of 50bps and dismissing the idea of a pause in rate hikes. Markets expect the bank to raise rates by 24bps at their next meeting and reach a terminal rate of 4.28%. The RBA's recent decision and data regarding the Wage Price Index will likely affect the...

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Optimism as a "Soft Landing" achievable? Now the first month of 2023 is almost over, and we had a great start in the financial markets, actually, a fantastic start, as Goldman Sachs stated a couple of days ago. This month's straightforward story of the macro environment has been reassuring for bulls across the markets. Both in the legacy markets and the crypto...

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What if the current price action is comparable to that of 2008? Recession with a capital "R" I am not suggesting that one should net short in this instance. However, some defensive "put" options, VIX call options, or VIXY buying Might be a good idea When possible, purchase insurance. Not when the building is engulfed in flames

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Consolidation, waiting for a new Option Expiration date for equities and VIX expiration July 15th & 20th VIX - OPEX July 27th FOMC Assuming after all liquidations & unwinds that it could be a local bottom or the bottom. Decent risk/reward for holding spot BTC.

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Flip to bullish above 4500 Remain neutral/sceptical outlook if we don't break above 4500

RomanoRnr

prices are reaching all-time highs and have been doing so for a while. One characteristic of gold that people have been overlooking is that it has a positive skew. This means that when gold prices make significant gains, the volatility index (GVZ) for gold also rises. We are at a resistance level. Could be a time to rebalance your portfolio, It might be...