Ron_M_Morin

Ron_M_Morin

Wave structure now calling for "third of third" DOWN. Don't be fooled by a government-led construction statistic!!! GL

Ron_M_Morin

Could be dropping into a "a third of a third", which, in Elliott terms, is the strongest part of a move. GL

Ron_M_Morin

Unless minor wave 2 morphs into a complex pattern, we might have a top here. GL

Ron_M_Morin

I've been expecting a final burst of delusional optimism for days now, and it could begin tomorrow. But as you can see from this chart we seem to have formed a down parallel channel, and bond liquidity continues to hit new lows. Since I actually think oil is getting close to a tradeable low, that just might be the catalyst to set the Bulls off. I don't know,...

Ron_M_Morin

2 more % for SPX to make new ATH--GREAT--but this spread looks like real trouble--SOON. GL

Ron_M_Morin

I wish I knew. Though this is my primary count, I'm sitting on the sidelines waiting for the market to tip its hand. My gut tells me this market wants to go up--but can it? The bulls can't count on the FED. Fundamentals are worsening. Momentum and breadth are wanting. And the Bulls are as bullish as ever. We should know soon. Either we will start down in...

Ron_M_Morin

This is my personal wave count. Whether it is right or wrong--we'll know in a day or so. GL

Ron_M_Morin

This bottom has been difficult to catch, but I believe we finally made that low today. GLD should get back to 112 over the next several weeks. Bullish sentiment for gold is barely alive. GL

Ron_M_Morin

2022 is the top of wave 4--a reasonable place for battered dip-buyers to do their thing. Today's selloff came on weak volume, so I expect some kind of rally attempt tomorrow, but I still believe we won't have a significant turn until 2022 or so. GL

Ron_M_Morin

Either gold bottomed today or will do so soon. Nothing in any asset class is more hated than gold. While I'm not long-term bullish, I can't resist a despised asset, especially one that could easily go back to its last high. GL

Ron_M_Morin

With good news tumbling in from every direction you would have thought--go for it Bulls, but no. Are they really worried about Yellen, the Indecisive? Maybe. And maybe the Bulls will get it together next week. And all that may come to pass. Personally, I think even the Bulls are starting to think something darker is lurking out there. They really squandered...

Ron_M_Morin

I don't have a crystal ball, but I am alert to the vulnerability of this market. Small Caps are not following Big Caps up. Breadth is woefully anemic. Sentiment is--as always--delusionally bullish. That the FED is losing credibility by the minute, that earnings are punk, that deflation is knocking on our door--none of that matters. Only free money still...

Ron_M_Morin

Don't know what so great about Draghi not being able to control DEFLATION. Sure free money is one thing, but deflation that's quite another--really bad thing. Bulls will have to come to terms with THAT too, and when that happens--when that recognition sinks in to those stone heads, it won't be pretty. Get short here with a stop 2% above your position. GL

Ron_M_Morin

Ideally, we should get a little above 2020--though it is not necessary--to complete this large wave 4. The good news is we now have 5 waves down to go to complete wave 5 of (1), which will take us to new lows--even the FED noticed the global slowdown!! GL

Ron_M_Morin

Looks like the bulls just don't have enough oomph to push this wave 2 any higher. With 4 good days of bullish trying, the bears just refused to give up--about time. If this count is right, wave 3 of 5 of (1) should start down about now. GL

Ron_M_Morin

Bulls have pushed SPX to the max. With TRIN at 46 we are poised for a big drop. Still looking for 1789. GL

Ron_M_Morin

Given the pattern development, I've revised wave count according. Wave 1 ended at about 1870 and NOW I believe wave 2 ended today or very soon on Monday around 1952. TRIN is overbought again. Bulls are excited. Let's see what happens Monday. GL

Ron_M_Morin

We are entering a "3rd of 3rd" of wave 5. Unless the bulls can pull this thing above 1960, it's going down. Today's TRIN closed at 89--not that strong for the effort, which means to me: The oomph is just not there. Stay bearish. The Glory Boys are still under the upper parallel line, which is guiding the bearish trend lower. GL '