RyanVarghese

RyanVarghese

We are getting ready to enter Stage 3 of this Inflationary Bear Market. History has shown us that in order for inflation to cool down, interest rates must surpass the inflation rate. Currently, FEDFUNDS is @ 5% and US inflation (YoY) is at 6%. Looks like, Inflation may have peaked but since mid-March, USOIL has gained 25% off the lows on news that the OPEC...

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Digging into chinese fundamentals are tough to guage. However, sectoral and macro shifts can play out in 2022 for a while where long HSI will be a good play as a hedge as it does over 30% from ATH. Now, since it's a game of MAcro Tsunami, so the impact and moves will be vicious in the market along with some geo-political tension that is brewing between China and...

RyanVarghese

Before moving on, I will appreciate it if you consider that this view is strictly an opinion and my view. So, it's not mandatory or obligated to happen in this manner. This is how I see the pound can move and if all the stars are aligned here, then we may be in the perfect spot for the great long in the quid !! The micro side of the UK is still discussing...

RyanVarghese

Coming out with a new perspective on the mighty DXY where I see how the dollar could move in the coming months. This is just an hypothesis. so, take it with a pinch of salt, if you can! Macro-Economics #101 Alright, we have seen the US has now over 30% of its population vaccinated with fantastic economic numbers coming out in the past couple of months. That...

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Please Note: This is a pain trade as I am going against the consensus but the reasons laid out with respect to the fundamentals are what I have based my thesis and biased. Previous Pain trade for going Long GBP in August 2019 proved right. But past performance doesn't indicate future results. Hence, the chances of being wrong is very high and of you can take this...

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Really not being too helpful with this pair to go against the trend because USD is still a safe haven in times of geopolitical stress. Fundamental Reasons for having the SHORT BIAS EUROPE: 1. Eurozone GDP growth rate has been contracted to 1.1 percent from 4% while US GDP growth has rate has increased to 2.3% from 2.1% 2. German PMI has shown some signs of...

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WTI Crude oil ( USOIL) is up by 18% since the second week of October of this year and the technical picture indicates that there is another potential upside of 35% in the price of oil from the current levels but for that, we may have to first look at fundamentals to why I personally think, Oil may rally because Energy market is associated more basic economics...

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After successfully smashing GBPAUD for 1500 pips and GBPUSD for 1000 pips this year, we could again see the continuation moves in Sterling pairs. First and foremost, Sterling as a currency that held its significance in the financial market once, has been undervalued to a greater extent. Hence, I still have a bullish bias on Sterling. Let's dive into the reasons...

RyanVarghese Updated 

Alright, this is once again a pain trade where I am going against the consensus. The pair have clearly been on a tear since it printed 1.88. Technicals have been aligned on the chart which is hinting for a potential reversal where we can see too many confluences coming at 1.775-1.777. Taking a dive into some fundamentals on both currency individually. ...

RyanVarghese

SPX has been on a continued uptrend despite witnessing some minor volatilities along the way int last two years. I ain't no expert on calling the top or picking the bottom but given the momentum we are seeing int he US equities, it's better to go with the flow rather than standing between the moving train. SPX has started the recent bull from February 2016 after...

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I am looking for a reversal in EEMA ( Emerging Markets Asia ETF) and with respect to that, I am anticipating a shift in sentiment in the Asian Equities as well. specifically, India which has been down by over 12% from its All-time highs. Again, I can be highly wrong with my bias but my downside could be limited from this level because major bank stocks in the...

RyanVarghese

It seems that GBP has risen from the dead and as per my earlier analysis on GBPUSD from mid-August, we have come a decent way to being up by almost 700 pips. Hypothetically, let's assume, the UK gets an exit with a deal or an extension. In this case, we could see a jump in the pound that should tag 1.32. As a result, positional traders will look out to book...

RyanVarghese Updated 

Expecting the confluences of Monthly Trendline that goes past two decades to hold the downside momentum along with the spot coming at .27 extension of the start of the downtrend that began in 2018. we have RBNZ rate decision this week and is expected to keep on hold since they recently cut a huge bps in their last meet. Post their rate cut, the global markets...

RyanVarghese Updated 

Just anticipation to how I see GBP could be moving.. in the coming days.. Got the last move right on GBPUSD .. from 1.2050 levels..right until 1.2580

RyanVarghese

I have a very biased opinion of Sterling to what market has. Hence, the probability of me being wrong is very high. Because it's tough to admit but I have been consistently wrong this year on Sterling forecast and still I am not willing to budge. Therefore, take this analysis with a pinch of salt, if you will. But I, on the other hand, is going long with...

RyanVarghese

Last set up on GBPUSD for Inverse H&S didn't work well but The market has respected 2019 trendline and closed inside the potential big symmetrical triangle it has formed. We are soon to rebound now. I am already long from 1.24850.. the last rebound zone that was created in December 2018. But keeping this on a long term is bit dicey. Still, its worth the risk.

RyanVarghese

The market has priced a rate cut but the truce between US-China is a good proxy to AUDJPY. we could be seeing some good moves after a whipsaw. Technically, we have three confluences.. one in the forming of Inverse Head & Shoulders.. and 200 Daily SMA..with TL`s. Still, if they sound dovish, this could go way bellow 74.50 which will invalidate the setup.

RyanVarghese

Sterling has been consistently the worst performer among the G7 currencies in the past quarter. As we are heading into the new quarter and if my DXY hypothesis is right, then we could see some serious buying in Sterling on a pullback that will also validate an Inverse Head & Shoulder pattern. Everyone knows, Brexit is now just a mess and there is no iota of a...