SPYvsGME

SPYvsGME Updated 

I was too busy singing the Bull Blues yesterday to notice. Today had flipped upside down to form a 15m Inverse Head & Shoulders on TLT. Price target is 102.13 I was worried all hope of a bullish start to the new year was lost. Jan 10 will be the next date to put on on my Calendar.

SPYvsGME

If you’re new to my TV feed, I have been following 3 JPM hedged equity funds put spread collars (seagull) for 2 years now. Some points to be aware of before using any of this info: Theories are highly speculative dealer flows. All the information is public. Hedges are SPX quarterly expiry options. Core concepts originate from Cem Karsan on fin twit. ...

SPYvsGME

2023 Market Crash Is Confirmed. You heard that right traders. A consistent indicator over the past 20 years is confirming many fears of a recessions and market crash will occur in 2023.

SPYvsGME

Happy New Year. It has been a historic year in the markets. From the war in Russia to the Fall of Crypto. Here are my 5 top ideas from 2022. #5 Learning the Ichimoku Cloud. A 4 part idea breaking down how to read the indictor One technical analysis improvement I made in 2022 was learning the Ichimoku Cloud. I have found it invaluable for understanding...

SPYvsGME Updated 

Here is a cheatsheet for the upcoming expiration of JHEQX Collar. It's the reason why anything is sold over 3835. and why we get so many V shaped days under 3835. IV decays fast because of the holidays. Unless there is an event that triggers a spike in IV. Otherwise at some point while the call is OTM the the IV will decay on the call causing a Vanna...

SPYvsGME

In America, it's tradition that if at first you don't succeed, you just lower the bar. It has been working great for the education and political system, why not the financial one. There is a good opportunity here for the bulls to flip the trend back bullish and take another run at the 200D MA. Today was a good example of not getting too bearish. Cem Karsan...

SPYvsGME

It is time to get the bear suit on once again. Coming up on some bear pivots lower. Even As far back as Jan 2022 and a 15 Year regression channel. Each peak and trough in S&P this have been predicted by sells off following a negative gex trend. Because I don't have a single bullish idea. Maybe that is how they get you. Down every last breath of hope...

SPYvsGME

A phrase I'm sure a lot of you don't know the origin of. It comes from Black Jack. the game 21. Black Jack is my favorite game at the casino. The key to playing 21 was knowing how streaks work. Once you understand the chances you will have a winning streak and vice versa the dealer will have a winning streak. You can apply a basic bidding strategy of a min...

SPYvsGME Updated 

2021-2022 has not been kind to this dark knight of the cannabis industry. Hexo was one of my biggest conviction cannabis stocks last year. When Hexo bought Redecan at a valuation of nearly a billion dollars last year I thought it would turn around. But I learnt it was just chopping off an arm and leg as interest rates went up and valuations went down. Nearly a...

SPYvsGME Updated 

Forgive quick bad chart, but I wanted to send a quick warning. I have not had a lot of time to update the hedged equity chart for JPM but wanted to send out a warning that we are heading into more volatility below 3835. All 3 hedged equity fund levels have breached and looking at more volatility going into Christmas holidays. Should the storm in the US end up...

SPYvsGME Updated 

Bears don't get to convinced a sell off is near. Bulls will be buying the dip for the entire next year. 4K is the level, premium the harvest. ---- In this idea I present to you a level everyone should be aware of because my prediction is that we will end 2023 around 4k. I was browsing the SPX options chain for 2023 and 4k is by far the highest open interest...

SPYvsGME Updated 

While Mr.Musk rattles the bird cages of twitter, his Stock of the Future Has been underperforming since the stock split. Closing under 177.59 today will erase 2 years worth of TSLA trading. Zooming in to Nov 2020 shows a gap in the daily @ 136 would be the likely target.

SPYvsGME Updated 

This chart is intended for other idea articles but I thought it was interesting enough for its own idea. I'm not allowed to post my website, but you can find it in my profile it contains the data I used for charting this. 1) Naive Gex - Is the total option chain of a stock across all expirations. In other words the gamma exposure assumes customer is always...

SPYvsGME Updated 

So here we are not to many deviations away from the last post on Hedged Equity funds being firmly in positive gamma territory. Overall gamma for the S&P 500 options chain has been positive 15 straight trading days. This indicates a 0.20% daily distribution along with a VIX that continues to compress into 2023. However, there are indicators suggesting VIX is...

SPYvsGME Updated 

Big week kicked off with a positive gamma exposure across the S&P 500 on Monday. Check out my post on DDOI Gamma Exposure if you want to understand why I think we're going to break the 200D moving average. I think this pattern changes the next 3 months and we begin to digest 2022 and begin 2023 forcasts. I was surprised by TSLA selling off yesterday as...

SPYvsGME

I wrote this script to track 3 hedged equity funds. I've been following these funds for nearly 2 years now. This is the first time in 2022 that I have seen the funds positions line up in positive gamma. All of 2022 the hedged equity funds were aligned in negative gamma and sold off into expiration. Except when dealer Gamma exposures is positive or short...

SPYvsGME

This story about crypto started about 2 years ago. It starts with an idea about why Blackouts in Xinjiang were linked to crypto problems in China. The idea was that bitcoin was going to solve inequality and be free from government manipulation. What could be more opposite to what China wants. The cost? A surge in energy and semiconductor demand unlike...

SPYvsGME

It was a refreshing event to trade in what was a repeat of the CPI print earlier this month but at mid day. If you read through any of my content over the past month and half I have been consistent in advocating this was a short term bottom (1-3 months). In the comments I proposed SPX would break the 200 day moving average after the 3rd failed attempt. ...