Sam_Eder

Sam_Eder

CAD has gained strength after a boost in Crude Oil prices yesterday plus a hawkish hold from the BOC. We like further downside in USDCAD. Caution on OPEC meeting today. Keep your position small, if you want to take advantage of this trade opportunity.

Sam_Eder

GBP remains in favour on YOuGov polls showing a Boris Johnson victory in the upcoming elections. Yesterday's Neutral day showed rejection of the lows and points to continuation higher, especially after poor AU GDP. The call is to buy at market with a stop loss below today's lows.

Sam_Eder

Risk still down on risk-off mood, renewed trade jitters incl China, France. If trade developments continue to play out as Tuesday’s news suggests, then Dec 15th tariffs will go on as planned, and a Phase One Trade Deal won't happen until 2020. Markets are trading with a risk-off tone. The call is to continue shorting Dow, either on a pullback to 27640/27770...

Sam_Eder

After a headline from OPEC regarding future productions cute, alongside surprizing data from the weekly API survey yesterday, Crude is now advancing strongly. We like longs between 55.50s and here, looking for 57.00 initially.

Sam_Eder

The USD has been weaker recently after poor economic data. In contrast, Canadian data has been good and now with the Canadian elections behind us, we can expect more strength in the Loonie. Today's retail sales could surprize to the upside on the back of stronger employment conditions and stronger wages recently. Look to sell USDCAD between 1.3100 and 1.3120.

Sam_Eder

European earnings have started to come out better than expectations. Alongside this, we have had some positive news on the US/China trade front. As such, we still like the upside in Dax. Look to get long around Friday's High.

Sam_Eder

SEK Inflation data due shortly. Given the recent PMI data, we are expecting a worse print, which would catch the market off guard and send USDSEK higher. EURSEK is also another consideration for the trade. Enter AFTER the data - do not anticipate.

Sam_Eder

Markets are now very sensitive to data. Worse ISM on Tuesday and worse ADP yesterday have sent stocks lower and have generated a broad risk-off tone. Today everything hinges on the ISM Non-Manuf. report due at 16.00 CET. If, as we expect, the print comes in worse, we will look to sell the Dow. Target is 25250s.

Sam_Eder

The AUD has seen a very tight range last week, across the board. Tomorrow we will get the RBA's decision and that will likely be the catalyst for a pickup in volatility. We believe the odds are for a dovish hold...which might disappoint the markets. Last week RBA Governor Lowe noted the difficult external environment, but he also repeated three times that the...

Sam_Eder

NZD was hit hard after ANZ Activity outlook fell to -1.8 (lowest since 2009) and business confidence fell to -53.5 (lowest point since 2008). We like selling NZDUSD in the 6270/80 area looking for a break of recent lows, which would open up further downside towards 6200.

Sam_Eder

While other central banks are easing, the SNB keepT rates on hold, reiterating Swiss Franc remains overvalued, Adjusting the basis for calculating negative interest. The reaction has been a consolidated push higher for the CHF and we like selling AUDCHF on the back of this news since all big banks in Australia are now expecting the RBA to cut rates at the next...

Sam_Eder

USDCAD is within a defined range ahead of FOMC tonight. We have CPI coming up today and the odds are for a worse print. However, we would suggest fading any break beyond the range, and waiting for FOMC to get the true direction.

Sam_Eder

Saudi officials have calmed the markets aying that they will be back up and running in no time. The attack was less a shock than expected and Crude is back down to the main support line: 59.00. A break below here would probably test 55.00. Just beware that today Saudi officials will bring fourth evidence on who was behind th attacks (Iran apparantly) and the...

Sam_Eder

GBPCAD is poised for a breakout. We like longs at market even, given the recent weakness in the Canadian Dollar. Targets are 1.6400 and then 1.6500

Sam_Eder

Draghi delivered the bazooka: 1. Rate cut 2. Extended forward guidance 3. QE 4. Tiering system We like Euro shorts from here.

Sam_Eder

The ECB is expected to do 4 things: cut rates by 0.1% to -0.5% (1), with the mitigating measure of tiering (2). Furthermore, the market expects and extension of forward guidance (‘at present or lower…well past the horizon of net asset purchases’) (3); the market expects the reintroduction of QE for 12 months at a pace of 30-40 bln per month (4). The market is...

Sam_Eder

Eyes on Dow and risk appetite today into the NY session. It's going to be an important two days for U.S. stock investors. A slew of economic data from payrolls to services PMI figures to durable goods orders have taken on even more significance, after the unexpectedly poor reading from the ISM purchasing manager's index this week. With many investors pointing to...

Sam_Eder

Despite the rally in risk assets, the negatives that sent the EUR lower have not changed. The economic gloom in Europe remains and, despite the north-south divide on the ECB board, many still expect policy easing, if not in September than before year-end as Christine Lagarde ascends to the presidency. Thus EUR/CAD is likely to continue to trend lower. Larger...