Sam_Eder

Sam_Eder

EurJpy has benefitted from some hawkish ECB members and from a recovery in risk appetite. We have Non-Farm Payrolls out today, and we also have to see what China does after the USA implemented their first batch of tariffs. But, technically, this chart offers confidence in a breakout north.

Sam_Eder

After a strong reaction in a bull market type, GBPAUD is potentially poised for further gains. We have had a bullish engulfing off the Bollinger Median Line (20 SMA) and contextually the Aussie has been weakening. Keep in mind that today we have a crunch Brexit meeting in the UK which could either amplify the recovery or throw a spanner in things.

Sam_Eder

Volatility is rising and we have confirmed higher lows in the 16.00/17.00 range with spikes higher. It seems we are transitioning into a higher volatility environment, despite currently being in no man's land.

Sam_Eder

Strong Canadian data matched with political chaos in the EU is keeping EURCAD compressed in a tight range. We like the odds of continuation (south) on these drivers. For now, the Euro has been resilient but we believe it's just a matter of time until the market pays attention to the political chaos.

Sam_Eder

The market is responding to better Australian data. It's early to start shorting this, but it remains on our watchlist. Today is also Independence Day so participation is light and we do not suggest opening new positions.

Sam_Eder

Overnight Kiwi Q2 business confidence dropped to 7-year low at minus 20 from -11 last quarter. This is keeping a lid on NZD crosses. We continue to look for further weakness.

Sam_Eder

Trump continues to escalate the Trade War, now hitting China Mobile. Chinese bourses are being watched in order to gauge the seriousness of Trump's moves. Remember that Tariffs come into place Friday July 6th.

Sam_Eder

Crude Oil up on story from Economic Times: Libya declared force majeure on significant amounts of its supply – disruptions to Libyan supplies caused the move up.  We are approaching the first targets for the week, and support should come in around 74.00.

Sam_Eder

The Dax is starting off the week on a negative note after Seehofer's resignation intent. Not a done deal yet as the CSU meets at 8.30 CET today. But this should keep the pressure on the Dax unless a deal is reached between CSU and CDU (not likely).

Sam_Eder

Copper remains under pressure, and it should continue to do so after a weaker CHN PMI over the weekend, and with US tariffs expected to hit this week (Jul 6th). Pressure will ease if Trump pulls back at the last minute. So once again, this is a trade that depends as much on politics as it does on broader technical considerations.

Sam_Eder

The OPEC deal has given quite a boost to Crude. However, Trump is attempting to persuade Saudi Arabia to enhance production by 2 mln bpd. This is double what the market expected and might stall the rally. For now, Crude remains a buy on dips. But keep your eyes on the wires.

Sam_Eder

We have reached previous monthly highs on EurNzd after a dovish hold by RBNZ and efforts to find a deal regarding the EU immigration crisis. The deal isn't finalized yet, so things may change. But if all goes according to plan, EurNzd will likely remain strong this week.

Sam_Eder

The combination of negative sentiment on NZD and positive sentiment on Cad (due to Crude Oil) is keeping the pressure on NZDCAD. We look for lower prices this week.

Sam_Eder

After a Daimler profit warning yesterday, and some political issues from Italy (with newly appointed euroskeptic members), the Dax looks poised for further losses. We would like to see an open below 12500, and then continuous pressure.

Sam_Eder

The combination of a hawkish BOE and the USD short-squeeze has setup a Friday-reversal trade. We are looking to keep this tight with initial target at 1.3300 then hopefully 1.3350.

Sam_Eder

Today's BOE meeting will set the stage for August. The jury is still out on whether the Q1 slowdown was temporary, or the start of a more pronounced deceleration in economic activity. The BoE can cite a slew of recent positive data releases (services PMI, retail sales) but trade balance, inflation developments and business confidence are weaker. Overall we...

Sam_Eder

Our bullish call has been slowly progressing. The new key support level is 1.3300 and we remain seated looking for 1.3350s. Iran might agree to oil output increases, which should keep the lid on Crude and Cad.

Sam_Eder

Our bearish call on EURUSD remains intact despite limited movement thus far. The fundamental picture has not changed and remains unfavourable for the Euro. USD strength is a common theme once again today - we might very well (finally) test the downside and 1.1500.